Recent polls project Likud at 20-22 Knesset seats if elections were held now, well below its 32 seats in 2022, as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads with 24-26 mandates and Naftali Bennett’s Together gains ground. The August 26 Walla survey showed new right-wing entrant Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael taking six seats largely from Likud and Religious Zionism, which fell below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s coalition bloc sits at 43-50 seats across multiple surveys, short of a majority, amid low support for ultra-Orthodox allies and draft-exemption disputes. Likud’s recent primaries produced limited polling gains, leaving trader consensus heavily weighted toward seat losses for the party ahead of the October 27 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated92% chance
$14,398 Vol.
$14,398 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
92% chance
$14,398 Vol.
$14,398 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls project Likud at 20-22 Knesset seats if elections were held now, well below its 32 seats in 2022, as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads with 24-26 mandates and Naftali Bennett’s Together gains ground. The August 26 Walla survey showed new right-wing entrant Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael taking six seats largely from Likud and Religious Zionism, which fell below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s coalition bloc sits at 43-50 seats across multiple surveys, short of a majority, amid low support for ultra-Orthodox allies and draft-exemption disputes. Likud’s recent primaries produced limited polling gains, leaving trader consensus heavily weighted toward seat losses for the party ahead of the October 27 vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Market Opened: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$14,398End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls project Likud at 20-22 Knesset seats if elections were held now, well below its 32 seats in 2022, as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads with 24-26 mandates and Naftali Bennett’s Together gains ground. The August 26 Walla survey showed new right-wing entrant Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael taking six seats largely from Likud and Religious Zionism, which fell below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s coalition bloc sits at 43-50 seats across multiple surveys, short of a majority, amid low support for ultra-Orthodox allies and draft-exemption disputes. Likud’s recent primaries produced limited polling gains, leaving trader consensus heavily weighted toward seat losses for the party ahead of the October 27 vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$14,398End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls project Likud at 20-22 Knesset seats if elections were held now, well below its 32 seats in 2022, as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads with 24-26 mandates and Naftali Bennett’s Together gains ground. The August 26 Walla survey showed new right-wing entrant Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael taking six seats largely from Likud and Religious Zionism, which fell below the 3.25% threshold. Netanyahu’s coalition bloc sits at 43-50 seats across multiple surveys, short of a majority, amid low support for ultra-Orthodox allies and draft-exemption disputes. Likud’s recent primaries produced limited polling gains, leaving trader consensus heavily weighted toward seat losses for the party ahead of the October 27 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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