Marine Le Pen maintains her lead in the 2027 French presidential race at around 33-35% in first-round polling due to Rassemblement National consolidation around immigration, EU skepticism, and economic messaging following her candidacy announcement. Édouard Philippe trails as the leading centrist option while Jean-Luc Mélenchon has gained ground on the left, reaching 16-19% in recent Ifop and Harris surveys and qualifying for a runoff in multiple scenarios amid left-wing fragmentation. The crowded field, with numerous center-right and moderate contenders splitting votes, sustains the tight trader consensus reflected in current prices and prevents any single alternative from establishing clear separation ahead of the April 2027 vote. Further polling shifts, candidate withdrawals, or legal developments on eligibility could alter positioning in the months ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPoll shows Jean-Luc Mélenchon likely to reach presidential runoff against Marine Le Pen
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 14%1%
A Reuters poll indicated Mélenchon as the most likely rival to far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in the 2027 runoff, highlighting a polarized electorate and boosting Mélenchon's market support.
Poll shows Marine Le Pen leading first round of 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen rises to 33%2%
A Toluna Harris Interactive poll showed Marine Le Pen leading all scenarios of the first round of the presidential election with 35-38% of the vote, significantly ahead of competitors, reinforcing her position as the frontrunner.
Raphaël Glucksmann announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Raphaël Glucksmann, co-president of the center-left Place Publique party and Member of the European Parliament, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering a crowded left-wing field and aiming to challenge the far left and far right.
Raphaël Glucksmann officially announces presidential candidacy
Raphaël Glucksmann dips to 2%2%
Raphaël Glucksmann announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election via the Socialist Party primary, aiming to unite the left and challenge other candidates, which influenced his market price downward due to left fragmentation.
Raphaël Glucksmann officially announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Raphaël Glucksmann rises to 4%2%
Raphaël Glucksmann announced his candidacy via a primary with the Socialist Party, aiming to unite moderate left-wing voters and challenge far-left and far-right candidates, influencing his market price.
Raphaël Glucksmann officially declares candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Raphaël Glucksmann announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded left-wing field and planning to participate in the upcoming primary. This announcement influenced his market price and confirmed his campaign intentions.
Raphaël Glucksmann officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of the center-left Place publique party, confirmed his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to unite moderate left-wing voters and challenge Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Raphaël Glucksmann confirms 2027 presidential candidacy
Raphaël Glucksmann, co-president of the center-left Place Publique party, confirmed his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to unite moderate left-wing voters and challenge far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Raphaël Glucksmann prepares to officially announce presidential candidacy
Raphaël Glucksmann, leader of Place Publique and a prominent center-left figure, prepared to officially announce his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent social-democratic and pro-European values amid a crowded left-wing field.
Raphaël Glucksmann to officially announce 2027 presidential candidacy
Reports indicated that Raphaël Glucksmann would officially announce his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election imminently, increasing his profile and market attention.
Raphaël Glucksmann to officially declare candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Glucksmann planned a prime-time TV announcement to solidify his position as the main center-left candidate, aiming to unify the left and increase his market support.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande rises to 4%1%
Former President François Hollande indicated he is preparing for a possible presidential campaign, modestly increasing his market probability despite challenges.
François Hollande hints at active campaign ahead of 2027 election
François Hollande rises to 4%1%
François Hollande was reported to be preparing actively for a potential presidential campaign, increasing his visibility and market price despite being a long shot.
François Hollande signals potential 2027 presidential run
François Hollande rises to 4%1%
Former French President François Hollande publicly indicated he is preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 presidential election, which modestly influenced his market price despite low overall chances.
François Hollande hints at presidential comeback for 2027 election
François Hollande rises to 4%1%
Former President François Hollande indicated he is preparing for a possible run, which modestly increased his market probability despite his historically low popularity and challenges ahead.
François Hollande signals possible 2027 presidential candidacy
In August 2026, former president François Hollande indicated he was preparing for a possible run in the 2027 election, adding complexity to the left-wing field and influencing market perceptions of his chances.
Édouard Philippe maintains strong position after mayoral re-election
Édouard Philippe rises to 26%2%
Édouard Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his status as a leading center-right candidate, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price.
First Televised Debate of 2027 Presidential Campaign Held with Major Candidates
The first televised debate among leading candidates, including Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Gabriel Attal, took place, increasing public engagement and influencing market perceptions of candidate viability.
Gabriel Attal campaigns in Brittany to connect with working French citizens
Between July 23 and 25, 2026, Gabriel Attal campaigned in Finistère and Morbihan, Brittany, engaging with workers during the summer season, aiming to boost his grassroots support, coinciding with his market price stabilizing at 3%.
David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with landslide victory
Lisnard's strong local electoral success reinforced his national profile and presidential ambitions, stabilizing his market price despite low national polling.
Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election on TV
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%19%
Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on French television, ending uncertainty about her participation despite legal constraints, which boosted her market price.
David Lisnard holds major campaign meeting in Saint-Raphaël
David Lisnard rises to 3%1%
David Lisnard held a significant campaign event in Saint-Raphaël, emphasizing his vision for France and attempting to boost his presidential bid despite low polling numbers.
Bruno Retailleau holds first major campaign meeting to boost presidential bid
Bruno Retailleau held a large campaign meeting in Paris to rally support and present his economic-focused platform, aiming to counter Marine Le Pen's far-right appeal.
Dominique de Villepin reaffirms determination to run for 2027 presidency
Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%
Dominique de Villepin expressed full determination to participate in the 2027 presidential election despite ongoing investigations, signaling his intent to be a candidate and influencing his market price.
Marine Le Pen's market price surges after court ruling and candidacy announcement
Marine Le Pen surges to 35%25%
Following the court's decision and Le Pen's confirmation to run, her market price rose sharply, reflecting renewed confidence in her candidacy despite legal challenges.
Jordan Bardella's market probability plunges after Le Pen's appeal success
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%
Following the Paris court of appeal's ruling allowing Marine Le Pen to run, Jordan Bardella's market probability sharply declined as he was no longer the likely far-right candidate. This reflected the market's reassessment of the far-right candidacy dynamics.
Marine Le Pen launches campaign with 'renaissance' theme after regaining eligibility
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%
Following the court ruling restoring her eligibility, Marine Le Pen unveiled a campaign poster themed around the 'renaissance' of France and her candidacy, boosting her market position significantly.
François Hollande hints at 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former President François Hollande suggested he might run again, signaling a potential left-wing comeback that added uncertainty to the Socialist Party’s prospects and influenced his market price.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential candidacy
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former president Hollande suggested he might run again, signaling a potential comeback that added uncertainty to the left-wing field and influenced his market price downward due to low chances.
David Lisnard delivers speech on institutions at Bayeux, marking campaign milestone
On June 17, 2026, David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and presidential candidate, gave a significant speech on institutional reform at Bayeux, commemorating the 80th anniversary of de Gaulle's speech, which helped maintain his market price around 2%.
François Hollande prepares for 2027 presidential candidacy
Former President François Hollande signaled his intention to prepare a political project and possibly run in the 2027 presidential election, gaining some market attention despite low polling.
Elon Musk publicly endorses Marine Le Pen for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen rises to 32%2%
Elon Musk expressed support for Marine Le Pen's 2027 presidential campaign on social media, calling her 'France's last hope,' which brought international attention and media coverage to her candidacy.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande rises to 4%1%
Former President François Hollande hinted at a possible candidacy for the 2027 election, organizing support and emphasizing his experience, which caused a modest market increase despite low polling prospects.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential candidacy
François Hollande rises to 4%1%
Former President François Hollande suggested he might run in the 2027 presidential election, aiming to offer an experienced alternative on the left. This announcement caused a slight increase in his market price, though his chances remain limited due to past unpopularity.
François Hollande prepares candidacy and meets supporters secretly
François Hollande held a secret meeting with over 160 supporters in July 2026, signaling serious preparation for a potential 2027 presidential run and aiming to consolidate his base.
Elon Musk publicly backs Marine Le Pen for 2027 French presidential election
Elon Musk expressed support for Marine Le Pen's 2027 presidential campaign on social media, calling her 'France’s last hope.' This endorsement brought international attention and boosted her campaign's visibility and market confidence.
Jordan Bardella pledges to form national unity government if RN wins 2027 election
Jordan Bardella dips to 2%1%
Jordan Bardella declared his intention to form a national unity government that would extend beyond the National Rally if elected in 2027, signaling a strategic political move to broaden appeal and energize his campaign.
Jordan Bardella shifts role after Marine Le Pen's candidacy confirmed
Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%22%
After Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed, Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted as he moved from potential presidential candidate to a prime ministerial role in Le Pen's campaign. He announced plans to build the program and form a government, signaling a strategic repositioning.
Jordan Bardella declares intention to form national unity government if RN wins in 2027
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
Jordan Bardella announced plans to form a government of national unity beyond the National Rally if elected, signaling a strategic shift and cooperation with right-wing voters, which influenced his market price downward as Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed.
Poll shows Marine Le Pen leading French presidential race after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%
A poll conducted after the court ruling showed Marine Le Pen extending her lead in voter preference for the 2027 election, reflecting increased market confidence in her candidacy.
David Lisnard outlines education reform proposals in 2027 presidential campaign
David Lisnard presented key programmatic proposals focusing on education reform, advocating for a 'revolution of the school of democracy.' This policy emphasis aimed to strengthen his campaign profile, though it had limited impact on his market price, which remained low.
Jordan Bardella steps back as Marine Le Pen confirmed as RN candidate
Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%21%
Following Marine Le Pen's confirmation as the National Rally candidate, Jordan Bardella's market price dropped sharply as he stepped back from the presidential race, consolidating the far-right vote behind Le Pen.
Jordan Bardella's market price plunges after Le Pen's candidacy confirmed
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
With Le Pen confirmed as the far-right candidate, Bardella's market price dropped sharply as he shifted from front-runner to potential substitute candidate for the National Rally.
Marine Le Pen officially launches 2027 presidential campaign after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
Following the appeals court decision, Marine Le Pen launched her presidential campaign, transforming legal adversity into a rallying cry and energizing her base, which boosted her market position significantly.
Marine Le Pen officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%
Marine Le Pen confirmed her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election following the court ruling, ending uncertainty and boosting her market position significantly.
Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election despite court sentence
Marine Le Pen rises to 32%1%
Marine Le Pen declared she will run for president in 2027 despite her conviction and court-ordered electronic monitoring, signaling her determination and boosting her market support.
Jordan Bardella's far-right presidential candidacy uncertain after Le Pen's appeal ruling
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%
Jordan Bardella's market price plunged as Marine Le Pen was cleared to run, making Bardella's candidacy uncertain and reducing his chances as the far-right candidate.
Marine Le Pen confirms 2027 presidential candidacy despite legal challenges
Marine Le Pen rises to 32%3%
Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election following the appeals court decision, stating she would campaign without the electronic tag by appealing to the supreme court, causing a surge in her market price.
Jordan Bardella remains National Rally candidate amid Le Pen's legal issues
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%
With Le Pen's eligibility confirmed but uncertain, Bardella's market price plunged as he awaited confirmation of his candidacy status, reflecting party dynamics and voter uncertainty.
Poll shows Marine Le Pen leading comfortably in first round of 2027 election
Marine Le Pen rises to 30%3%
A poll conducted after Le Pen's legal clearance showed her leading the first round of the presidential election with around 36% of the vote, ahead of centrist candidates. This poll supported the market's increased confidence in her chances of winning.
Marine Le Pen announces presidential candidacy despite conviction and monitoring order
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%20%
Marine Le Pen publicly announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election following the court ruling, stating she would campaign without an electronic bracelet, which boosted her market position significantly.
Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential candidacy after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
Following the appeals court decision, Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, energizing her base and causing a surge in her market probability.
Marine Le Pen launches presidential campaign after court ruling
Marine Le Pen rises to 33%2%
Following the appeals court decision allowing her to run, Marine Le Pen officially launched her 2027 presidential campaign, transforming legal adversity into a rallying cry and energizing her base, which boosted her market position significantly.
Jordan Bardella confirmed as National Rally's presidential candidate amid Le Pen's legal issues
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%
Due to Marine Le Pen's legal challenges, Jordan Bardella emerged as the likely far-right candidate, causing his market price to drop sharply after initial high polling.
Jordan Bardella sidelined as Marine Le Pen confirmed as RN candidate
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
Following the court ruling allowing Marine Le Pen to run, Jordan Bardella, her protégé and potential substitute candidate, saw his market price collapse as Le Pen reclaimed the far-right candidacy.
Marine Le Pen launches 2027 presidential campaign after court ruling
Marine Le Pen rises to 33%2%
Following the appeals court decision, Marine Le Pen launched her presidential campaign, transforming legal adversity into a rallying cry and energizing her base, which significantly increased her market support.
Jordan Bardella remains far-right National Rally candidate amid Le Pen's legal issues
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%
With Le Pen's eligibility confirmed but uncertain, Bardella stayed the likely far-right candidate, causing his market price to plunge as the party's focus consolidated.
Marine Le Pen confirms candidacy for 2027 presidential election despite conviction
Marine Le Pen dips to 30%1%
Marine Le Pen publicly confirmed she will run for president in 2027 despite her conviction and legal challenges, reinforcing her position as the far-right candidate and impacting market dynamics.
Marine Le Pen confirms Jordan Bardella as her prime ministerial candidate if elected
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
Le Pen's announcement of Bardella as her prime ministerial candidate solidified their political alliance and influenced market expectations for the far-right ticket.
French court clears Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
A French court ruling suspended the effect of Marine Le Pen's electoral ban while she appeals, reopening her path to the 2027 presidential election and boosting her market price.
Marine Le Pen officially declares candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%22%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, reaffirming her campaign despite legal challenges and promising to run without an electronic tag.
French court suspends Marine Le Pen's electoral ban, clearing path for 2027 run
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%
A court ruling suspended Le Pen's ban while she appeals, allowing her to run in the 2027 election and boosting her market odds significantly.
Marine Le Pen launches her 2027 presidential campaign after court ruling
Marine Le Pen rises to 32%2%
Following the court's decision, Marine Le Pen officially launched her presidential campaign, signaling her intent to run despite legal challenges. This event solidified her position as the far-right candidate and influenced market confidence.
Paris Court of Appeal reduces Marine Le Pen's ineligibility, clearing way for 2027 run
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%24%
The court upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but reduced her ineligibility sentence, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election. She announced her candidacy the same day, causing a significant rise in her market price and a sharp fall for Jordan Bardella.
Bruno Retailleau presents AI priorities at Salon Machina, emphasizing technology in governance
On July 7, 2026, Bruno Retailleau, LR presidential candidate, unveiled his priorities on artificial intelligence at the Salon Machina, advocating for significant investment to enhance state efficiency, which helped maintain his market price at 3%.
Marine Le Pen confirms candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen rises to 33%3%
Following the court ruling, Le Pen announced her candidacy on TF1, stating she would not campaign while wearing an electronic tag and would appeal the decision, solidifying her position in the race.
Jordan Bardella expresses support for Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
After Marine Le Pen's candidacy was confirmed, Jordan Bardella publicly expressed his support and commitment to work alongside her, which clarified his role and led to a sharp decline in his market price as he stepped back from running himself.
Court ruling allows Marine Le Pen to run for presidency despite conviction
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%24%
An appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzlement but shortened her ban on holding public office, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election. Le Pen announced her candidacy and plans to appeal, creating uncertainty but maintaining her status as a leading far-right contender.
Marine Le Pen announces 2027 presidential candidacy despite legal challenges
Marine Le Pen rises to 31%1%
Following the court ruling, Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 election, signaling her intent to campaign without an electronic tag. This announcement significantly boosted her market price and solidified her position as a frontrunner.
French appeals court clears Marine Le Pen for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
The Paris Court of Appeal shortened Marine Le Pen's ineligibility ban, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election despite her conviction, which significantly boosted her market position and reshaped the far-right candidacy landscape.
Marine Le Pen officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen rises to 32%2%
Following the court ruling, Le Pen publicly confirmed her candidacy on TF1, stating she would campaign without the electronic tag by appealing to the Court of Cassation. This solidified her position as a frontrunner.
Court shortens ban on Marine Le Pen's eligibility, allowing presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
A Paris appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but shortened her ban on holding elected office, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election and boosting her campaign prospects.
Paris court clears Marine Le Pen to run for presidency with electronic tag
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%21%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction for misuse of EU funds but reduced her ban on running for office, allowing her to run in the 2027 election while serving a prison sentence under electronic monitoring, boosting her market probability.
Paris appeals court upholds Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but shortens ban on candidacy
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
The court ruling allowed Marine Le Pen to run in the 2027 presidential election despite her conviction, leading to a significant increase in her market price and reshaping the far-right candidacy dynamics.
Marine Le Pen announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 35%26%
Following the appeals court decision, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, ending uncertainty about her participation and boosting her market price.
Paris appeals court shortens ban on Marine Le Pen's candidacy, allowing her to run
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%21%
The court upheld Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but reduced her ban on running for office, enabling her to participate in the 2027 presidential election and boosting her market probability.
Appeals court upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but shortens election ban, allowing presidential run
Marine Le Pen jumps to 18%11%
An appeals court confirmed Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzlement but reduced her ban on holding office, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election. This legal development removed a major obstacle for her candidacy, causing a significant increase in her market support.
Paris Court of Appeal shortens Marine Le Pen's ban, clearing way for 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 27%19%
The Paris Court of Appeal reduced Marine Le Pen's ineligibility ban from five years to 45 months with 30 suspended, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election despite her conviction for misuse of EU Parliament funds. This legal development removed a major obstacle for her candidacy and boosted her market probability.
Jordan Bardella's presidential prospects collapse after Le Pen court ruling
Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%22%
Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted after the court ruling allowed Marine Le Pen to run, ending Bardella's chances as the National Rally's candidate. Bardella returned to a secondary role within the party.
Paris Court of Appeal upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but clears her to run for president
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but reduced her ban from public office, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election under conditions she rejects, impacting her and Jordan Bardella's candidacies.
Appeals court reduces Marine Le Pen's ban, allowing presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%22%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but reduced her ineligibility period, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election. This legal development revived her campaign prospects and affected market dynamics for her and Jordan Bardella.
Jordan Bardella faces legal uncertainty as Marine Le Pen's appeal proceeds
Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%21%
With Marine Le Pen's eligibility uncertain due to her conviction appeal, Jordan Bardella's market price plummeted as his potential candidacy became less certain, reflecting the party's internal uncertainty.
Court upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but shortens ban, allowing presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%21%
A Paris appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but reduced her ban on running for office, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election and prompting her to launch her campaign.
Jordan Bardella's candidacy uncertain pending Marine Le Pen's appeal ruling
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
Bardella's market price plunged after the court ruling on Le Pen's appeal, as his candidacy depended on her disqualification. The ruling allowing Le Pen to run reduced Bardella's chances, causing a sharp price drop.
Marine Le Pen officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%22%
Following the court ruling, Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, energizing her base and significantly increasing her market support.
Paris appeals court shortens Marine Le Pen's ban, clearing path for 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but reduced her ban on holding elected office, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election. This legal development significantly boosted her market probability and affected Jordan Bardella's position as the far-right candidate.
Paris Court of Appeal ruling on Marine Le Pen's eligibility for 2027 election
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
The court ruling was a pivotal moment determining Le Pen's ability to run, impacting the far-right's electoral strategy and market dynamics for both Le Pen and Jordan Bardella.
Jordan Bardella steps back as RN presidential candidate after Le Pen's eligibility restored
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
After Marine Le Pen's eligibility was restored by the court, Jordan Bardella, previously the likely RN candidate, stepped back, causing his market price to collapse from 26% to 3%.
Paris Court of Appeal rules Marine Le Pen eligible to run in 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
The Paris Court of Appeal reduced Marine Le Pen's ineligibility ban, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election while serving a prison sentence under electronic monitoring. This ruling caused a sharp rise in her market price and confirmed her candidacy despite legal challenges.
Court of Appeal upholds Marine Le Pen's conviction but reduces election ban
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%22%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's embezzlement conviction but reduced her ban on holding elected office, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election, which led to a surge in her market price.
Marine Le Pen announces presidential candidacy after appeals court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%22%
Following the appeals court decision, Marine Le Pen declared her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, ending uncertainty about her participation and boosting her market position significantly.
Appeals court allows Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 presidential election despite conviction
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%22%
The Paris appeals court upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzlement but shortened her ban, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election while appealing. This legal development cleared her path to candidacy and boosted her campaign prospects.
Marine Le Pen confirms 2027 presidential candidacy after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%22%
Marine Le Pen confirmed her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election following the appeals court ruling that allowed her to run despite her conviction. She announced the start of her campaign, impacting market confidence in her chances.
Paris Court of Appeal clears Marine Le Pen to run in 2027 election
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
The court shortened Le Pen's ban on holding elected office, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election despite her embezzlement conviction, significantly boosting her campaign prospects and market price.
Court of Appeal shortens Marine Le Pen's ban, clearing path for 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 30%23%
A Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction for embezzlement but reduced her ban on holding public office, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election. This legal development significantly boosted her market price and confirmed her candidacy despite the requirement to wear an electronic monitoring bracelet.
Paris Court of Appeals rules Marine Le Pen eligible to run in 2027 presidential election
Marine Le Pen surges to 32%23%
The Paris Court of Appeal shortened Marine Le Pen's ineligibility ban, allowing her to run in the 2027 presidential election while serving a prison sentence under electronic monitoring. This ruling caused a surge in her market price and confirmed her candidacy despite legal challenges.
Paris appeals court reduces Marine Le Pen's ban, allowing 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen surges to 29%23%
The Paris Court of Appeal upheld Marine Le Pen's conviction but shortened her ban on holding elected office, enabling her to run in the 2027 presidential election. This legal development caused a significant increase in her market price as it cleared uncertainty about her candidacy.
Jordan Bardella's market price collapses amid legal investigations and Le Pen's return
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%24%
Legal investigations into Jordan Bardella and the reinstatement of Marine Le Pen as the far-right candidate caused Bardella's market price to plummet from 27% to 3%.
Édouard Philippe holds first major campaign meeting in Paris
Édouard Philippe rises to 27%2%
Édouard Philippe held a large campaign meeting in Paris, rallying over 5,000 supporters and reinforcing his position as the leading centrist candidate, which helped maintain and boost his market price.
Édouard Philippe launches major campaign rally for 2027 presidential bid in Paris
Édouard Philippe rises to 28%4%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe held a large campaign event in Paris to officially launch his 2027 presidential campaign, boosting his visibility and market price.
Édouard Philippe holds first presidential campaign meeting in Paris
Édouard Philippe surges to 28%19%
Philippe held his first major campaign meeting in Paris, presenting a program focused on defense, institutional stability, and democratic renewal, which contributed to a sharp rise in his market price.
Paris appeals court to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility for 2027 election
Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%
The Paris Court of Appeal is set to decide on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her embezzlement conviction, a ruling that will determine her eligibility to run in the 2027 presidential election, causing market uncertainty.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon asserts ability to defeat far-right candidates
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%
On July 5, 2026, Jean-Luc Mélenchon publicly stated his confidence in beating the National Rally candidates and potentially eliminating them in the first round, maintaining his steady campaign presence and modest market gains.
David Lisnard launches 2027 presidential campaign after leaving Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard officially declared his candidacy and departure from Les Républicains, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement, which impacted his market price due to lower national recognition.
Édouard Philippe Launches 2027 Presidential Campaign to Challenge Far Right
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%7%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far-right candidates. This boosted his market price from around 20% to 27%, consolidating his candidacy.
Gabriel Attal launches presidential campaign rally in Paris
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Gabriel Attal kicked off his presidential campaign with a major rally, emphasizing a break from the Macron era and reforming the political system, which helped solidify his position as a centrist contender.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign with promise of collective effort and education reform
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%
Édouard Philippe officially launched his presidential campaign on July 5, 2026, promising a collective effort from the French people and a massive overhaul of the education system, which contributed to his market price rising to 26%.
Édouard Philippe officially launches presidential campaign with education reform focus
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Édouard Philippe launched his campaign promising a collective effort and a massive overhaul of the education system, which boosted his market price to 26%.
Édouard Philippe holds major campaign rally in Paris
Édouard Philippe rises to 27%3%
Édouard Philippe held a significant campaign rally at the Adidas Arena in Paris, receiving endorsements and consolidating his position as a leading center-right candidate, which supported his market price.
Édouard Philippe holds first major campaign meeting in Paris
Édouard Philippe surges to 27%15%
Édouard Philippe held a large campaign rally in Paris, outlining his platform focused on defense, institutional reform, and renewal of the right. This event helped consolidate his position as the main centrist challenger to the far right.
Jordan Bardella calls for change, warning against continuing as before
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
On July 4, 2026, Jordan Bardella, RN leader, publicly stated that the greatest danger for France in 2027 is to continue as before, signaling his campaign's focus on change, coinciding with his market price dropping to 3%.
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella appear together at far-right rally
Marine Le Pen surges to 33%24%
Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella appeared together at a rally, signaling party unity ahead of the election and impacting their respective market prices.
François Hollande hints at readiness for 2027 presidential election
François Hollande dips to 4%4%
At a private gathering, François Hollande expressed that he could be useful in the upcoming presidential election, reinforcing speculation about his candidacy and slightly boosting his market presence.
David Lisnard launches 2027 presidential campaign, criticizes political establishment
David Lisnard officially announced his candidacy, denouncing the political elite and positioning himself as a liberal alternative, which corresponded with his market price starting low and remaining modest.
David Lisnard holds first major campaign meeting for 2027 election
David Lisnard held his first large campaign meeting in Saint-Raphaël, aiming to boost his national profile and consolidate support. This event was part of his effort to increase his market standing, which remained low around 3%.
Laurent Wauquiez offers political support to Édouard Philippe
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Laurent Wauquiez, leader of the Les Républicains deputies, publicly extended support to Édouard Philippe's presidential bid, signaling a consolidation of center-right forces behind Philippe. This endorsement was seen as a strategic addition to Philippe's campaign, likely contributing to increased market confidence in his candidacy.
François Hollande's approval rises among leftist voters despite low overall support
François Hollande dips to 2%1%
Polls in early July showed François Hollande gaining positive reviews among left-wing voters, reaching 46% approval in that group, though his overall market price declined to 2%. This indicates a niche resurgence but limited broader electoral impact.
Jordan Bardella emerges as leading far-right candidate amid Le Pen's legal uncertainty
Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%22%
With Marine Le Pen facing legal restrictions, Jordan Bardella gained prominence as the National Rally's likely presidential candidate, reflected in his market price before a sharp decline after Le Pen's appeal success.
French Government Officially Confirms April 18 and May 2, 2027, as Presidential Election Dates
The French government formally approved the election timetable, setting the first round for April 18, 2027, and the runoff for May 2, 2027. This official confirmation marked the formal start of the election cycle and accelerated campaign preparations, influencing market dynamics for all candidates.
Marine Le Pen appeal verdict expected, determining her eligibility for 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was set to rule on July 7, 2026, on Marine Le Pen's appeal against her 2025 conviction and five-year ban from holding office. The verdict would decide if she could run in 2027, with a ban likely elevating Jordan Bardella as the RN candidate.
Jordan Bardella's rise as far-right National Rally leader gains momentum amid Le Pen's legal troubles
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
Bardella's increasing prominence as the likely far-right candidate, especially if Le Pen is disqualified, boosted his market price and positioned him as a key contender.
French presidential election dates set for April 18 and May 2, 2027
The official announcement of the election dates provided clarity on the electoral timeline, influencing campaign strategies and market expectations.
French government officially sets presidential election dates for April 18 and May 2, 2027
The official announcement of the election dates provided clarity on the election timeline, confirming the schedule for the first round and runoff, which influenced market expectations for all candidates.
Investigation opens into Jordan Bardella for alleged embezzlement
Jordan Bardella plunges to 5%22%
Jordan Bardella, potential far-right presidential candidate, was investigated for alleged embezzlement related to misuse of EU funds. This legal trouble caused a sharp decline in his market price and diminished his chances as the National Rally candidate, especially after Marine Le Pen's return.
Marine Le Pen expresses no fear ahead of July 7 court ruling on eligibility
Marine Le Pen rises to 9%2%
Facing a critical court decision on her appeal against a five-year ban from public office, Marine Le Pen publicly stated she was not afraid, keeping uncertainty over her candidacy alive and affecting market prices.
Gabriel Attal outlines vision for a liberal and uncompromising project
Gabriel Attal dips to 3%1%
Gabriel Attal publicly presented his vision for a liberal and uncompromising political project on June 30, 2026, positioning himself as a unifier beyond the right and center, which helped stabilize his market price around 3%.
Investigators raid offices linked to National Rally amid embezzlement probe
Jordan Bardella dips to 27%1%
European Public Prosecutor’s Office conducted raids related to alleged misuse of European Parliament funds by the National Rally, creating legal uncertainty around Jordan Bardella and impacting his market price negatively.
Investigators raid National Rally offices in probe linked to Jordan Bardella
European Public Prosecutor’s Office conducted raids related to alleged misuse of European Parliament funds involving the National Rally, increasing scrutiny on Bardella and the party ahead of the election.
France sets presidential election dates for April 18 and May 2, 2027
The official announcement of the election dates provided clarity on the timeline, impacting candidate strategies and market prices, especially for leading contenders.
European Public Prosecutor’s Office raids far-right National Rally over alleged embezzlement
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
Investigators conducted raids related to alleged misuse of European Parliament funds by the National Rally, increasing legal scrutiny on the party and affecting Jordan Bardella's market position.
France sets presidential election date for April 18, 2027
France officially announced the first round of the next presidential election will be held on April 18, 2027, with a runoff on May 2, providing a clear timeline for the campaign and market participants.
Government spokesman Maud Bregeon endorses Édouard Philippe for 2027 presidency
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson, publicly supported Édouard Philippe's presidential bid, boosting his campaign credibility and market position.
Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon endorses Édouard Philippe for president
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Maud Bregeon, government spokesperson, publicly supported Édouard Philippe's presidential bid, reinforcing his position as the main centrist candidate to prevent a far-right victory.
David Lisnard wins landslide re-election as mayor of Cannes
David Lisnard rises to 6%4%
David Lisnard secured a commanding victory in the 2026 municipal elections with over 81% of the vote, boosting his national profile and strengthening his presidential bid as an independent right-wing candidate.
Court of Appeal to rule on Marine Le Pen's eligibility to run in 2027 election
The Paris Court of Appeal was expected to decide in summer 2026 whether Marine Le Pen could run in the 2027 presidential election, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting related market prices.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential run
François Hollande dips to 3%1%
Former president François Hollande showed signs of preparing for a potential 2027 presidential campaign in late June 2026, generating some market interest though his price remained low due to uncertainty about his candidacy.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe maintains lead among centrists but faces pressure from Attal and Mélenchon
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
A June 26 Ifop-Fiducial poll showed Édouard Philippe leading the centrist vote but with narrowing margins as Gabriel Attal and Jean-Luc Mélenchon gained ground. Philippe's market price fluctuated around 19-21%, reflecting uncertainty in his campaign strength.
Édouard Philippe holds major nationwide discussion event
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Philippe organized a significant nationwide discussion event as part of his campaign strategy to mobilize grassroots support, contributing to a gradual increase in his market price.
Polls confirm Jordan Bardella's record popularity and far-right lead
Jordan Bardella rises to 27%1%
June polls showed Jordan Bardella's approval rating doubling over four years to 40%, solidifying his lead over Marine Le Pen and other candidates. This reinforced Bardella's market price near 27%, reflecting strong public support for his candidacy.
François Hollande signals potential 2027 presidential run
François Hollande rises to 4%1%
Former President François Hollande hinted at a possible candidacy for the 2027 election, citing his experience and the need for leadership, which modestly influenced his market price despite low overall chances.
Édouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Philippe's strong reelection as mayor reinforced his status as a leading centrist candidate, stabilizing and boosting his market price ahead of the presidential race.
Franck Leroy, President of Greater East Region, endorses Édouard Philippe
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%6%
Franck Leroy publicly supported Édouard Philippe for the presidential election, boosting Philippe's credibility and market price as a leading center-right candidate.
David Lisnard holds public meeting in Sarthe during presidential campaign
David Lisnard continued his campaign trail with a public meeting in Sarthe, demonstrating his commitment to building support across regions. This event was part of his strategy to increase visibility despite low polling numbers.
Bruno Retailleau announces bid for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau rises to 3%1%
Bruno Retailleau publicly declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing a platform focused on order and prosperity. This announcement was reflected in a slight increase in his market price.
Jordan Bardella vows to win 2027 French presidential election and shift EU course
Bardella, as the far-right National Rally leader, pledged to confront EU institutions and emphasized his presidential ambitions, boosting his profile and market position.
Bruno Retailleau holds grand meeting in Paris as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau held a major campaign event in Paris, signaling his active campaign for the 2027 presidential election and attempting to boost his visibility and support.
Bruno Retailleau holds first campaign rally in Paris
Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%
Retailleau held a major campaign rally in Paris to solidify his presidential bid, aiming to increase his visibility and support, which corresponded with a price increase from 3% to 7%.
Jordan Bardella gains as Marine Le Pen's substitute candidate amid legal uncertainty
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%4%
With Marine Le Pen's legal troubles ongoing, Jordan Bardella's market probability stabilized and slightly increased as he was positioned as the National Rally's substitute candidate for 2027.
Bruno Retailleau launches presidential campaign rally in Paris
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau, nominated as The Republicans' candidate, held his first major campaign meeting, aiming to solidify his candidacy and create momentum despite low polling numbers.
Bruno Retailleau holds first major campaign rally in Paris
Bruno Retailleau held his first large campaign rally at Parc Floral de Paris, aiming to boost his visibility and support among right-wing voters. This event was part of his effort to expand his electoral base and improve his standing in the polls.
Bruno Retailleau launches campaign for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%7%
Retailleau held a campaign rally to launch his presidential bid, consolidating his position as the conservative candidate despite internal party divisions, influencing his market price.
David Lisnard campaigns in Bayeux as part of presidential bid
David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and presidential candidate, visited Bayeux to promote his campaign, signaling active engagement in the election race. This visit was part of his efforts to gain national recognition and support.
Édouard Philippe gains momentum after strong municipal election results
Édouard Philippe jumps to 30%10%
Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister and mayor of Le Havre, gained political momentum following strong results in the 2026 municipal elections, boosting his profile as a leading center-right candidate for the presidency. This was reflected in a significant rise in his market price.
David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with landslide victory
David Lisnard dips to 3%1%
Lisnard's overwhelming re-election as mayor of Cannes bolstered his presidential ambitions but his departure from The Republicans and low polling kept his market price low.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Philippe's re-election as mayor reinforced his credentials and boosted his market standing as a credible centrist candidate for the presidency.
Raphaël Glucksmann tests presidential waters with sovereignty pitch
Raphaël Glucksmann dips to 2%1%
Glucksmann emphasized French and European sovereignty in a public meeting, signaling his potential candidacy and positioning himself as a center-left alternative to Macron and the far right.
Raphaël Glucksmann launches 2027 presidential campaign in Aubervilliers
Raphaël Glucksmann plunges to 2%41%
Raphaël Glucksmann officially launched his presidential campaign with a large meeting, positioning himself as a social-democratic alternative on the left and aiming to unite the fractured left-wing electorate.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe's strong re-election as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his status as a leading centrist candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and boosting his market price as a credible contender against the far right.
Raphaël Glucksmann holds first major campaign rally
Raphaël Glucksmann held a significant campaign rally in Aubervilliers, reaffirming his determination to run and boosting his profile among left-leaning voters, though his market price remained low.
Édouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his position as a leading center-right candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price.
Raphaël Glucksmann officially launches 2027 presidential campaign in Aubervilliers
Glucksmann held a large campaign meeting with thousands of supporters, positioning himself as a social-democratic, pro-European alternative on the left. This event marked a significant step in his campaign and boosted his visibility and market price.
Raphaël Glucksmann holds major campaign rally signaling presidential run
Raphaël Glucksmann rises to 3%1%
Raphaël Glucksmann held a significant rally in Paris, reaffirming his determination to run for president and increasing his visibility and market support.
Dominique de Villepin's popularity declines amid presidential speculation
Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%
Dominique de Villepin's market price dropped significantly as his potential candidacy became less certain and his political influence waned during the analysis period.
French Justice Minister endorses Edouard Philippe for presidential candidacy
Édouard Philippe rises to 25%4%
Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin publicly endorsed Édouard Philippe as the best candidate for president, consolidating Philippe's support within the government and boosting his campaign credibility.
Gabriel Attal launches major campaign rally in Paris presenting future-focused platform
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%3%
On June 10, Gabriel Attal held a large rally in Paris to present his campaign platform emphasizing education, wages, borders, and AI innovation. This event aimed to recast his image as a candidate of renewal, stabilizing his market price around 6% to 9%.
Bruno Retailleau announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Bruno Retailleau rises to 5%2%
Bruno Retailleau, leader of The Republicans party, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, leading to a rise in his market price.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon launches 2027 campaign rally in Saint-Denis
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 13%2%
Mélenchon held a large rally in Saint-Denis to officially launch his presidential campaign, demonstrating his established political machine and solidifying his campaign presence. This event reinforced his candidacy and maintained his market support.
Marine Le Pen's Appeal Trial Begins in Paris Over EU Funds Misuse
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%4%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started, creating uncertainty about her eligibility and causing volatility in her market price, which dipped to around 6-7% before the court ruling in July.
Paris riots boost Jordan Bardella's approval ratings
Jordan Bardella rises to 26%1%
Riots in Paris heightened public concern over disorder and immigration, significantly increasing Bardella's approval and market support as a leading far-right candidate.
Jordan Bardella's popularity surges after PSG-related unrest
Jordan Bardella rises to 27%3%
Following unrest linked to PSG's victory, Jordan Bardella's popularity reached a record high, with polls showing increased public support. This surge contributed to Bardella's market price rising from 24% to 27% in early June, reinforcing his position as the far-right frontrunner.
Dominique de Villepin affirms determination to participate in 2027 presidential election
Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%2%
Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin publicly expressed his full determination to run despite potential legal issues, briefly raising his market presence.
Dominique de Villepin expresses full determination to participate in 2027 presidential election
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 3%38%
Dominique de Villepin declared his strong determination to play a role in the 2027 presidential election, signaling his intent to run and impacting his market price despite low polling.
David Lisnard announces departure from The Republicans amid presidential primary dispute
David Lisnard dips to 2%4%
Following his strong municipal election win in March 2026, David Lisnard announced his departure from The Republicans in early June 2026 due to disagreements over the presidential candidate selection process, leading to a drop in his market price.
Édouard Philippe confirms 2027 presidential candidacy despite legal scrutiny
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe declared he would run for president regardless of any non-final judicial decisions, reinforcing his position as a leading center-right candidate and influencing market confidence.
Gabriel Attal delivers first presidential campaign speech emphasizing hope and optimism
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Attal's campaign launch speech aimed to position him as a mature and hopeful centrist candidate, reinforcing his market presence despite competition.
Gabriel Attal formally launches 2027 presidential campaign with reform agenda
Gabriel Attal rises to 7%1%
Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing fiscal reforms including voluntary public sector job cuts and budget discipline, which affected his market price.
Gabriel Attal holds first presidential campaign meeting in Paris
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%2%
Attal launched a series of campaign meetings emphasizing hope and optimism, aiming to distinguish himself from other centrist candidates and solidify his base, which influenced his market price.
Gabriel Attal launches presidential campaign, vows to move past Macron era
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Gabriel Attal kicked off his presidential campaign with a major rally in Paris, pledging to reform the political system and move beyond the Macron era, which increased his visibility and market support.
Gabriel Attal kicks off presidential campaign with major rally in Paris
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%3%
Gabriel Attal launched his presidential campaign with a major rally in Paris, emphasizing reform and a break from the Macron era, which helped stabilize his market price around 6-9%.
Gabriel Attal delivers first major campaign speech emphasizing hope and optimism
Gabriel Attal jumps to 9%5%
Attal's first major campaign speech aimed to distinguish him from his centrist rivals and appeal to voters seeking change, impacting his market perception positively.
Édouard Philippe vows to remain candidate even if indicted
Édouard Philippe rises to 16%2%
Philippe stated on France Inter that no non-final judicial decision would prevent his candidacy, addressing ongoing investigations and reassuring supporters, which stabilized his market position.
Édouard Philippe confirms candidacy for 2027 presidential election despite legal scrutiny
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe declared he would run for president regardless of any non-final judicial decisions, reinforcing his position as a leading center-right candidate and influencing market confidence in his chances.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella rises to 27%4%
A May 2026 poll by Odoxa showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price significantly.
Poll projects Jordan Bardella to win French presidency amid far-right surge
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
Polls showed Bardella leading the presidential race, boosting his market price as the far-right's likely candidate following Le Pen's legal troubles.
Jordan Bardella projected to lead far-right in 2027 French presidential election
Polls showed Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price despite later declines following Marine Le Pen's appeal ruling.
Poll shows Jean-Luc Mélenchon surging, neck and neck with Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%
An Odoxa poll published on May 26 indicated Jean-Luc Mélenchon gaining 4 points to reach 16%, closely matching Édouard Philippe's 17%, signaling a tightening race for second place behind Jordan Bardella. This poll caused Mélenchon's market price to rise from 9% to 12%, while Philippe's price dipped from 21% to 16%.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 French presidential race
Jordan Bardella rises to 30%3%
A May 2026 poll indicated Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 election, boosting his market price and establishing him as a dominant far-right figure despite legal uncertainties.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
A poll by Odoxa in May 2026 showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price. However, his position later declined following Le Pen's appeal ruling.
Gabriel Attal launches campaign for 2027 French presidential election
Gabriel Attal jumps to 16%7%
Gabriel Attal's campaign launch positioned him as a main centrist contender, influencing his market price upward.
Gabriel Attal officially announces 2027 French presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal jumps to 16%12%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist candidate to challenge the far right. This announcement increased his market probability and intensified the centrist contest.
Gabriel Attal announces presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal drops to 6%10%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal formally launched his bid for the 2027 presidential election, entering a crowded centrist field and challenging the far right and far left.
Gabriel Attal officially declares 2027 presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal drops to 4%12%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, intensifying competition within the centrist and pro-Macron political camp.
Gabriel Attal officially launches bid for 2027 French presidency
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%2%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy, intensifying competition within the centrist camp and causing a decline in his market price due to fragmentation.
Gabriel Attal officially launches presidential campaign for 2027
Gabriel Attal drops to 4%12%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and challenging other candidates including Édouard Philippe.
Gabriel Attal officially enters 2027 presidential race
Gabriel Attal dips to 4%2%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, becoming a key centrist contender and challenging Édouard Philippe for the center-right vote.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign to challenge far right
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign in May 2026, positioning himself as the leading centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally. His campaign focused on uniting the center-right and addressing conservative issues, which helped maintain and slightly increase his market price around 21-27%.
Gabriel Attal launches presidential campaign, vows to move past Macron era
Gabriel Attal jumps to 9%5%
Attal began his campaign with a major rally in Paris, emphasizing a break from the Macron era and reforming the political system, which boosted his visibility and market position.
Gabriel Attal announces presidential run for 2027 election
Gabriel Attal drops to 9%7%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal declared his candidacy, intensifying competition in the centrist field and causing fluctuations in his market price due to increased fragmentation.
Gabriel Attal officially announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal declared his candidacy, positioning himself as a centrist contender and challenging other candidates like Édouard Philippe, which caused his market price to rise from around 4% to 6%.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a leading centrist candidate and causing a rise in his market price.
Gabriel Attal officially declares presidential candidacy in rural France
Gabriel Attal announced his presidential bid in a rural village, aiming to connect with voters outside urban centers and distance himself from Macron, but his market price remained low due to competition and limited recognition.
Gabriel Attal formally announces presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Gabriel Attal officially launched his bid for the 2027 French presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist alternative and distancing from Macron, which caused a rise in his market price.
Gabriel Attal officially announces presidential candidacy
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Gabriel Attal, former Prime Minister and leader of Renaissance, formally launched his bid for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing reform and distancing himself from Macron. This announcement increased his visibility and market support.
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal launches presidential campaign
Gabriel Attal drops to 4%12%
Gabriel Attal officially launched his bid for the presidency, positioning himself as a centrist candidate aiming to move beyond the Macron era and reform the political system.
Gabriel Attal formally announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Gabriel Attal jumps to 9%5%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist challenger and increasing his visibility, which caused fluctuations in his market price.
Gabriel Attal formally launches presidential bid for 2027 election
Gabriel Attal drops to 6%10%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and challenging other candidates, which influenced his market price.
Gabriel Attal announces 2027 presidential bid
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist candidate to succeed Emmanuel Macron and challenge the far right.
Gabriel Attal officially declares candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his presidential bid, positioning himself as a centrist contender and challenging other candidates, which caused his market price to rise initially.
Gabriel Attal announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Gabriel Attal rises to 6%2%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal officially declared his candidacy, positioning himself as a centrist challenger to the far right and other moderate candidates. His announcement caused initial market price fluctuations reflecting emerging competition in the centrist field.
Gabriel Attal officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a centrist reformer distinct from Macron, which initially raised his market price before it declined due to competition and polling.
Gabriel Attal formally announces candidacy for 2027 French presidential election
Gabriel Attal rises to 10%4%
Gabriel Attal officially launched his presidential campaign, intensifying competition within the centrist camp and causing fluctuations in his market price.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential comeback
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former President François Hollande indicated he is preparing for a potential run in the 2027 presidential election, citing the historic significance of the vote and his experience, though he has not yet officially declared his candidacy, adding uncertainty to the left-wing race.
Gabriel Attal formally launches presidential bid, challenging Macron's successor race
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a centrist liberal alternative and distancing from Macron, which boosted his market price.
François Hollande signals potential 2027 presidential run
Former president Hollande hinted at a possible candidacy, citing his experience and leadership needs, modestly influencing his market price despite low overall chances.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe formally announced his candidacy, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far-right, which boosted his market price and solidified his campaign.
Gabriel Attal officially launches 2027 presidential bid
Gabriel Attal rises to 9%2%
Former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, entering the crowded centrist field and sparking competition for the moderate vote. This announcement caused initial market price fluctuations for him and his centrist rivals.
French prosecutors open judicial probe against Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement
Édouard Philippe dips to 14%3%
A judicial investigation into Philippe for alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract in Le Havre caused uncertainty and a significant drop in his market price due to legal risks.
French prosecutors open embezzlement probe against Édouard Philippe
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was launched into former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract in Le Havre. This legal scrutiny caused a notable drop in his market price due to reputational concerns.
French prosecutors announce probe into Édouard Philippe over embezzlement allegations
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe for alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract, causing a drop in his market price due to reputational risks and legal uncertainty.
Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 16%11%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
French presidential contender Édouard Philippe targeted by embezzlement probe
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
French prosecutors announced a probe against Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract in Le Havre, causing uncertainty and a dip in his market price due to potential reputational damage.
Édouard Philippe targeted by embezzlement probe
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%13%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged misappropriation of public funds, causing a decline in his market price due to reputational damage.
French prosecutors announce judicial probe against Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%12%
A judicial investigation into Édouard Philippe for alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract caused a significant drop in his market price due to legal uncertainty and reputational risk.
Judicial probe opens against Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
French prosecutors launched an investigation into Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement related to a digital hub contract in Le Havre, causing a drop in his market support and raising questions about his campaign.
Judicial investigation opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 16%11%
A judicial probe was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
Judicial probe opened into Édouard Philippe over corruption allegations
Édouard Philippe dips to 16%4%
A French investigating judge was appointed to probe Édouard Philippe for alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, casting a shadow over his presidential campaign prospects.
Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was opened against former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
Judicial probe opened into Édouard Philippe over corruption allegations
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A French investigating judge was appointed to probe Édouard Philippe for alleged misappropriation of public funds, causing a significant drop in his market price due to legal uncertainty.
Judicial investigation opens against Édouard Philippe for embezzlement
Édouard Philippe drops to 16%5%
A formal judicial investigation was opened against former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe on allegations of misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, casting doubt on his presidential campaign and causing his market price to drop.
Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 4%24%
Bruno Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans with 74.31% of the vote, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate. This leadership victory was a key factor in his market price decline as he entered the race.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential candidacy
Former president Hollande suggested he might run again, raising speculation and modestly influencing his market price despite low chances of winning.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former President François Hollande publicly indicated he is preparing for a possible candidacy, which modestly increased his market probability despite challenges within the left.
Édouard Philippe holds major rally to boost 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 24%6%
Édouard Philippe organized a large rally in Reims to galvanize support for his presidential bid, reflecting his growing momentum and steady polling position.
Édouard Philippe launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position as a leading centrist candidate and main rival to the far right. This campaign launch helped increase his market probability.
Édouard Philippe launches campaign for 2027 French presidential election
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his presidential campaign, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to challenge the far-right, which boosted his market price.
Édouard Philippe launches presidential campaign to challenge far right
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far-right candidates, influencing his market price upward.
François Hollande signals potential 2027 presidential run
François Hollande rises to 8%4%
Former President François Hollande hinted at a possible candidacy for the 2027 election, citing his experience and the need for leadership during difficult times, which modestly influenced his market price despite low overall chances.
François Hollande hints at 2027 presidential ambitions
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former president François Hollande expressed that the next president must reach beyond their base to win, fueling speculation about his potential candidacy and influencing his market price.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Philippe announced his candidacy at an event in Reims, outlining his campaign strategy and positioning himself as a leading centrist candidate, which increased his market probability.
Édouard Philippe projects Horizons party towards 2027 presidential election
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister and leader of Horizons, positioned himself as a unifying candidate for the 2027 election, distancing from Macron. This bolstered his market price and solidified his candidacy.
Judicial probe opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged corruption
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
A judicial investigation was opened against Édouard Philippe concerning alleged misappropriation of public funds and conflict of interest, potentially damaging his presidential campaign prospects and causing a decline in market probability.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential bid
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 11%7%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared his candidacy for the 2027 election, but his market price declined from 18% to 11% over the period, reflecting challenges in left-wing voter consolidation.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy, aiming to run for president again with a radical left-wing platform, which increased his visibility and market support.
Bruno Retailleau outlines presidential project focusing on order and prosperity
Bruno Retailleau presented his presidential project emphasizing order, prosperity, and French pride, aiming to rally the right-wing electorate and solidify his campaign platform.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential run for 2027
Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 13%5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to consolidate the radical left vote despite internal divisions. This announcement was followed by a slight decline in his market price from 18% to around 13%, reflecting mixed voter sentiment.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 14%2%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon confirmed his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, emphasizing urgent national and global challenges, which solidified his position as the main left-wing contender despite his polarizing profile.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially confirms 2027 presidential run
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 13%1%
Mélenchon publicly confirmed his candidacy on French TV, emphasizing his readiness and positioning himself against the far-right. This solidified his campaign and influenced market perceptions of his chances.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Jean-Luc Mélenchon rises to 13%3%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, marking his fourth run and solidifying his position as the leading left-wing candidate, which influenced his market price.
Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
François Hollande hints at preparing for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former President François Hollande indicated he was preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 presidential election, which modestly increased his market probability despite significant challenges within his party and electorate.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former president François Hollande publicly stated he is preparing for a possible 2027 candidacy, aiming to represent a reformist left. This announcement raised his profile and influenced market perceptions despite low polling.
François Hollande signals possible 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former President François Hollande openly expressed intentions to return to power and prepare for a possible 2027 presidential campaign, generating some market interest despite low overall support.
François Hollande signals potential 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former President François Hollande hinted at a possible candidacy for the 2027 election, citing his experience and the need for leadership during difficult times, which modestly influenced his market price despite low overall chances.
François Hollande openly prepares for 2027 presidential candidacy
François Hollande rises to 4%3%
Former president François Hollande publicly indicated he is preparing for a possible 2027 presidential run, which influenced market perceptions of his chances despite internal party skepticism and his historically low popularity.
Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau won the official backing of the Les Républicains party after an internal survey favored launching his campaign immediately over holding a primary. This endorsement was expected to boost his campaign and consolidate right-wing support.
National Rally prepares for 2027 campaign amid uncertainty over Le Pen candidacy
Pending a July court decision on Marine Le Pen's eligibility, the National Rally prepared for the 2027 presidential campaign with Jordan Bardella as a potential candidate, affecting their market prices.
Bruno Retailleau selected as Les Républicains' presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau rises to 8%3%
Bruno Retailleau was officially endorsed by Les Républicains members as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position within the party and impacting his market price.
Bruno Retailleau makes controversial remarks about Spain
Bruno Retailleau dips to 3%1%
Retailleau's statement about ostracizing Spain from the EU sparked controversy, affecting his public image and possibly contributing to fluctuations in his market price.
Bruno Retailleau designated as Les Républicains presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was officially designated as the candidate of Les Républicains for the 2027 presidential election by party members, consolidating his position as the right-wing contender within the party.
The Republicans endorse Bruno Retailleau as presidential candidate
The Republicans party members voted overwhelmingly to endorse Bruno Retailleau as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, solidifying his position as the party's official nominee and impacting his market standing.
Bruno Retailleau nominated as The Republicans' candidate for 2027 presidency
Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%25%
Retailleau secured the nomination of The Republicans party with strong internal support, marking him as the official conservative candidate and impacting his market price positively.
Bruno Retailleau selected as The Republicans' presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau was officially chosen by The Republicans party members as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election in an internal vote. Despite this endorsement, his market price remained low around 3%, indicating limited broader support.
Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 2%26%
Bruno Retailleau was officially endorsed by Les Républicains members as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position but causing a decline in his market price due to competition within the right-wing.
Bruno Retailleau selected as official Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidency
Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%23%
Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate with 73.8% of the vote, solidifying his position and causing a market price surge.
Bruno Retailleau officially designated as Les Républicains candidate
Bruno Retailleau surges to 28%25%
Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Retailleau as their presidential candidate, solidifying his position and causing a market price surge followed by declines due to internal party divisions.
Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans with 74.31% of the vote in May 2025, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate, which influenced his market price.
Bruno Retailleau chosen as official candidate of Les Républicains
Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%5%
Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Retailleau as their presidential candidate, solidifying his position and causing a temporary market price increase.
Bruno Retailleau officially nominated as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 2%26%
Bruno Retailleau secured 73.8% of the vote among Les Républicains members to become the party's official presidential candidate, consolidating his position despite low polling numbers. This endorsement was a key factor in his market price decline as he entered the race.
Bruno Retailleau endorsed as Les Républicains presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%
Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate, solidifying his position and causing a market price surge.
Bruno Retailleau endorsed as The Republicans' candidate for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Retailleau won the internal party vote with over 73% support, securing the official backing of The Republicans and solidifying his candidacy, which impacted his market price.
Les Républicains party members endorse Bruno Retailleau as presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Party members overwhelmingly voted to endorse Retailleau as their official candidate, solidifying his position but causing a market price decline due to internal competition and low polling numbers.
Bruno Retailleau officially designated Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%
Les Républicains party members overwhelmingly endorsed Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate, solidifying his position and causing a market price surge.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former President François Hollande publicly indicated he was preparing for a possible 2027 presidential candidacy, emphasizing his experience and the importance of the election. This announcement raised his profile and modestly increased his market probability despite low overall chances.
Odoxa poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 French presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 28%6%
A poll by Odoxa predicted Jordan Bardella would win the 2027 presidential election regardless of opponents, boosting his market position as the far-right candidate after Marine Le Pen's legal troubles.
François Hollande signals potential 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former President François Hollande hinted at a possible candidacy for the 2027 election, citing his experience and the need for leadership during difficult times, which modestly influenced his market price despite low overall chances.
François Hollande prepares for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former President François Hollande publicly indicated his preparation for a 2027 presidential bid in April 2026, signaling his intent to re-enter the race and influencing his market price. His potential candidacy added complexity to the left-wing field.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 3%10%
Former president François Hollande indicated he is preparing for a possible 2027 presidential candidacy, aiming to represent a reformist left and capitalize on divisions within the Socialist Party, which influenced his market support.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential candidacy
François Hollande rises to 4%3%
Former president François Hollande suggested he might run in 2027, raising his profile and market price slightly despite low chances of winning.
François Hollande signals preparation for 2027 presidential run
François Hollande drops to 4%9%
Former president François Hollande publicly indicated he was preparing for a possible candidacy in the 2027 election, which modestly increased his market presence despite low polling numbers.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard plunges to 2%15%
David Lisnard left Les Républicains and announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement. This announcement led to a decline in his market price as he entered a crowded field.
Dominique de Villepin declares intent to be 'candidate of unity' for 2027
Dominique de Villepin rises to 7%2%
De Villepin publicly expressed his desire to be a unifying candidate for the 2027 presidential election, briefly raising his market price from 5% to 7%.
Édouard Philippe consolidates position as leading centrist candidate
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe's campaign momentum and positioning as the main centrist challenger to the far right helped increase his market probability around 21-27%.
Édouard Philippe launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister and leader of Horizons, officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position as a leading centrist candidate and main rival to the far right, which boosted his market price.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%9%
Édouard Philippe formally launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to challenge the far-right, which boosted his market price.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position as a leading centrist candidate and main rival to the far right. This event boosted his market probability significantly.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 4%13%
David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, which fragmented the right-wing vote and caused his market price to decline.
Former French PM Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%5%
Philippe formally announced his candidacy, positioning himself as the main centrist contender against the far right, which increased his market probability significantly.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces fourth presidential campaign
Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, confirming his participation and influencing his market price.
Édouard Philippe launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 26%5%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally. This campaign launch boosted his market price and solidified his candidacy.
Bruno Retailleau officially endorsed as Les Républicains candidate for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 3%25%
Bruno Retailleau secured the official backing of Les Républicains to run in the 2027 presidential election, marking his entry as a key center-right contender and influencing his market price.
Bruno Retailleau launches observatory to monitor La France Insoumise-led cities
Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%5%
Bruno Retailleau announced the creation of an observatory to document and denounce actions by cities led by La France Insoumise, positioning himself strongly against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and energizing his base.
Bruno Retailleau announces surveillance of LFI-led cities
Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%1%
Retailleau launched an observatory to monitor cities governed by La France Insoumise, positioning himself against Jean-Luc Mélenchon and signaling his presidential ambitions, impacting his market support.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 4%13%
David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, marking a significant move in the right-wing field and influencing his market price.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position as a leading centrist candidate and main rival to the far right, causing his market price to rise.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 4%13%
David Lisnard left Les Républicains and announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement, which led to a decline in his market price due to fragmentation.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, consolidating his position as a leading centrist candidate and boosting his market probability.
David Lisnard officially announces presidential candidacy after leaving Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
Lisnard's official candidacy announcement and departure from his party marked his independent run for the presidency, impacting his market price and positioning him as a right-wing contender.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe as only candidate capable of beating Jordan Bardella in second round
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%7%
Polling data indicated Philippe as the only candidate who could defeat Bardella in a runoff, boosting Philippe's market price and positioning him as the main centrist challenger.
David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and leaves Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and left Les Républicains, criticizing its candidate selection process, which led to a decline in his market price.
David Lisnard announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election and leaves Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
Lisnard's announcement and departure from Les Républicains marked his entry as a right-wing candidate advocating for a broad primary, impacting his market price and positioning.
David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and quits Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 4%13%
David Lisnard formally left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, advocating for an open primary, which caused his market price to drop as he entered the race independently.
David Lisnard leaves Les Républicains and announces presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard officially left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, marking a significant move in the right-wing field and influencing his market price downward due to lower national recognition.
David Lisnard announces candidacy and quits Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement, which led to a decline in his market price due to fragmentation and lower national recognition.
Marine Le Pen convicted of embezzlement with five-year ban from office
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted for embezzlement and sentenced to a five-year ban from holding public office, casting doubt on her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election and impacting her market price.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe jumps to 27%6%
Édouard Philippe announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as a leading centrist candidate to challenge the far right, which boosted his market price and consolidated his campaign.
Édouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Philippe's strong reelection as mayor reinforced his status as a leading center-right candidate, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard left Les Républicains due to disagreements over candidate selection and declared his independent candidacy, leading to a drop in his market price due to fragmentation and lower recognition.
Polls show Édouard Philippe as only candidate able to beat Jordan Bardella in runoff
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Polls published in March 2026 indicated Édouard Philippe as the sole candidate capable of defeating far-right leader Jordan Bardella in a potential second-round runoff, boosting his market support and positioning him as the main centrist challenger.
Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans party
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
Bruno Retailleau won the leadership of The Republicans party with 74.31% of the vote, consolidating his position as the party's presidential candidate. This leadership victory was a key factor in his market price decline due to competition within the right-wing camp.
Judicial investigation opened against Édouard Philippe over alleged embezzlement
Édouard Philippe drops to 14%7%
French prosecutors opened a formal investigation into former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe for alleged embezzlement of public funds related to a contract in Le Havre. This legal probe caused a decline in Philippe's market price from 21% to 14%, casting doubt on his presidential campaign.
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential race
Marine Le Pen plunges to 9%34%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and sentenced to a five-year ban from holding public office, initially barring her from the 2027 presidential election and causing her market price to drop significantly.
David Lisnard quits Les Républicains and announces presidential bid
David Lisnard drops to 4%13%
David Lisnard left Les Républicains citing a rigged candidate selection process and announced his independent candidacy, causing a drop in his market price.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%5%
Philippe's re-election as mayor reinforced his credentials and positioned him as a leading centrist candidate, stabilizing and increasing his market standing ahead of the presidential race.
David Lisnard announces 2027 presidential candidacy and leaves Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and left the Les Républicains party, seeking to position himself as a liberal alternative on the right, though his market support remained low.
Marine Le Pen barred from running for French president due to embezzlement conviction
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from running for political office following a conviction for embezzlement of European Parliament funds, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 presidential election and elevating Jordan Bardella as the likely far-right candidate.
David Lisnard officially announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard declared his candidacy in March 2026 after leaving The Republicans, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement. His announcement was reflected in a low but stable market price due to limited national recognition.
Marine Le Pen launches presidential campaign after court ruling
Marine Le Pen surges to 31%22%
Following the appeals court decision shortening her ban, Marine Le Pen launched her 2027 presidential campaign, transforming legal adversity into a rallying cry and energizing her base, which boosted her market position significantly.
David Lisnard officially announces 2027 presidential candidacy after leaving Les Républicains
David Lisnard dips to 3%1%
David Lisnard announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election on March 31, 2026, after quitting Les Républicains, which influenced his market price downward due to low national recognition.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe can beat Jordan Bardella in second round
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Polls indicated Édouard Philippe as the only candidate capable of defeating Jordan Bardella in the second round, boosting his market price and positioning him as the main centrist challenger to the far right.
David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with 81.1% vote, boosting presidential bid
David Lisnard drops to 5%12%
Lisnard's landslide municipal victory reinforced his reputation as a strong right-wing candidate, though his national support remained low, reflected in a modest market price.
David Lisnard officially leaves Les Républicains party
David Lisnard dips to 2%2%
David Lisnard announced his departure from the Les Républicains party due to disagreements over candidate selection methods, signaling his independent presidential ambitions and causing a drop in his market share.
David Lisnard leaves The Republicans and declares presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard quit The Republicans party and officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, advocating for an open primary on the right, which led to a decline in his market price.
Polls show Édouard Philippe can beat Jordan Bardella in second round
Édouard Philippe jumps to 28%11%
Polls released in March 2026 indicated Édouard Philippe as the only candidate capable of defeating Jordan Bardella in a second-round runoff, boosting Philippe's market price from 17% to 28%.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe leading against far-right rivals
Édouard Philippe jumps to 20%6%
A poll by Elabe showed Édouard Philippe leading in head-to-head matchups against Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, boosting market confidence in his candidacy and increasing his price.
Poll shows Édouard Philippe can beat Jordan Bardella in second round
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
A poll indicated Édouard Philippe as the only candidate capable of defeating far-right leader Jordan Bardella in a potential runoff, boosting Philippe's market position and solidifying his status as the main centrist challenger.
Sarah Knafo supports union of right-wing parties ahead of 2027 election
Sarah Knafo expressed support for a union of right-wing parties to provide clear direction for the right in the 2027 presidential election, signaling potential strategic alliances.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
David Lisnard quit Les Républicains due to disagreements over candidate selection and announced his independent candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, causing a drop in his market price.
David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and departure from Les Républicains
David Lisnard rises to 6%2%
David Lisnard, mayor of Cannes and president of the Association of French Mayors, announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and his departure from the Les Républicains party, marking his entry as an independent right-wing candidate.
Edouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre strengthened his credentials and positioned him as a leading candidate to challenge the far right in the 2027 presidential election, positively impacting his market standing.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Philippe's decisive re-election as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his political standing and credibility as a presidential candidate, positively influencing his market probability.
Édouard Philippe reelected as mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 24%4%
Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his political standing and campaign momentum for the 2027 presidential election, positively impacting his market price.
Édouard Philippe wins re-election as mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Édouard Philippe’s re-election as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his status as a leading presidential candidate, stabilizing and boosting his market price as a credible centrist contender.
Bruno Retailleau elected president of The Republicans, becomes presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%
Retailleau's election as party president consolidated his position as the official candidate for the 2027 presidential election, impacting his market price.
Bruno Retailleau selected as Les Républicains presidential candidate
Bruno Retailleau rises to 7%4%
Bruno Retailleau was officially chosen by Les Républicains members as their candidate for the 2027 presidential election, leading to a market price rise from 3% to 7%.
David Lisnard announces presidential candidacy and leaves Les Républicains
David Lisnard drops to 4%13%
David Lisnard officially announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and left the Les Républicains party, criticizing its candidate selection process, which led to a decline in his market price.
David Lisnard announces departure from Les Républicains and presidential candidacy
David Lisnard drops to 3%14%
Lisnard left Les Républicains and declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, aiming to represent a new right-wing movement, which led to a decline in his market price due to fragmentation.
Sarah Knafo emerges as far-right candidate in 2026 Paris municipal elections
Sarah Knafo plunges to 2%48%
Sarah Knafo's strong showing in the Paris municipal elections, securing over 10% of the vote, raised her profile as a far-right figure, though she ruled out a 2027 presidential run, leading to a decline in her market price.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe jumps to 21%7%
Philippe's strong re-election as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his status as a leading centrist candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and boosting his market price as a credible contender against the far right.
David Lisnard wins landslide re-election as mayor of Cannes
David Lisnard dips to 3%2%
David Lisnard was re-elected mayor of Cannes with over 81% of the vote, marking a strong local mandate that boosted his national profile and presidential ambitions despite his low polling numbers.
Édouard Philippe wins first round of Le Havre municipal elections
Édouard Philippe jumps to 23%9%
Édouard Philippe secured a strong lead in the first round of municipal elections in Le Havre, reinforcing his local political base and presidential ambitions.
Municipal elections held as barometer for 2027 presidential race
The March 15, 2026, municipal elections across France served as a political mood indicator ahead of the 2027 presidential election, influencing perceptions of candidates and party strengths.
Édouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Édouard Philippe's strong re-election as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his status as a leading centrist candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and boosting his market price as a credible contender against the far right.
Sébastien Lecornu survives no-confidence votes in French Parliament
Sébastien Lecornu dips to 2%4%
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu narrowly survived two no-confidence votes, maintaining his position amid political instability. This event underscored the fragile nature of his support and the challenges he faces ahead of the 2027 election.
Sarah Knafo qualifies for second round in Paris municipal elections
Sarah Knafo drops to 4%5%
Sarah Knafo's list came fifth in the first round of the Paris municipal elections with just over 10% of the vote, allowing her to advance to the second round and boosting her political visibility.
Édouard Philippe wins re-election as mayor of Le Havre, boosting presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%4%
Édouard Philippe's strong re-election as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his status as a leading centrist candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price around March 2026.
Sarah Knafo achieves significant result in 2026 Paris municipal elections, advancing to second round
Sarah Knafo plunges to 2%48%
Knafo's 10.4% vote share in the first round of Paris municipal elections marked a breakthrough, raising her political profile and influencing her market price downward as she later withdrew.
David Lisnard re-elected mayor of Cannes with strong majority
David Lisnard drops to 5%12%
David Lisnard's re-election as mayor with over 81% of the vote bolstered his political profile ahead of his presidential bid, contributing to his market price increase.
Sébastien Lecornu reappointed as French Prime Minister, rules out presidential run
Sébastien Lecornu dips to 2%4%
Sébastien Lecornu was reappointed Prime Minister in September 2025 and reaffirmed in March 2026 that he would not run for president in 2027. His political role and decision not to run had a minor impact on his market price, which declined from 6% to 2%.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Jean-Luc Mélenchon dips to 14%4%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, officially declared his candidacy on May 3, 2026, reinforcing the left-wing presence in the race. His announcement was covered widely and influenced his market price, reflecting his role as a major left-wing candidate.
Far-right’s presidential candidate to be decided after Marine Le Pen’s appeal ruling
Jordan Bardella plunges to 3%23%
The Paris court of appeal was scheduled to deliver its ruling on Marine Le Pen’s corruption case on July 7, 2026, which would determine if Jordan Bardella would replace her as the National Rally’s presidential candidate, impacting Bardella’s market position.
Bruno Retailleau announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Bruno Retailleau rises to 33%3%
Bruno Retailleau publicly announced his intention to run for the 2027 presidential election, reinforcing his market position as the Republican candidate.
Dominique de Villepin gains renewed popularity amid international commentary
Dominique de Villepin rises to 4%1%
Dominique de Villepin regained favor with the French public, topping a poll of favorite political figures in May 2025 and maintaining steady popularity into 2026, though without official candidacy announcement. This sustained his market presence despite low price.
François Hollande's potential 2027 presidential comeback gains credibility
Former President François Hollande's candidacy became a credible scenario, with him preparing for a possible run, which increased his market price modestly.
Bruno Retailleau announces presidential run for 2027
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%
Bruno Retailleau declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and later secured the backing of Les Républicains, marking him as the main right-wing candidate, which influenced his market price.
Bruno Retailleau announces candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%
Bruno Retailleau, leader of The Republicans, officially declared his candidacy, consolidating his position as the main right-wing candidate despite low polling numbers, which influenced his market price downward.
Bruno Retailleau announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 2%26%
Bruno Retailleau declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and secured the backing of The Republicans party, marking him as the main right-wing candidate and influencing his market price downward due to competition.
Bruno Retailleau announces presidential candidacy and wins Les Républicains backing
Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%
Bruno Retailleau declared his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election and secured the official backing of Les Républicains, consolidating his position as the main right-wing candidate despite low polling numbers.
François Hollande hints at possible 2027 presidential run
François Hollande jumps to 8%5%
Former President François Hollande suggested he might run in the 2027 presidential election, increasing his media presence and slightly improving his market position.
Édouard Philippe calls for early presidential election
Édouard Philippe publicly called for an early presidential election, suggesting moving the vote up from 2027 to 2025 or 2026 to address political turbulence. This statement influenced market perceptions of his political strategy and viability.
Édouard Philippe prepares seriously for 2027 presidential run
Édouard Philippe jumps to 22%6%
Philippe publicly stated he was preparing for the 2027 election in a serious but relaxed manner, indicating his commitment and increasing his visibility and support in the market.
Edouard Philippe reelected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%3%
Edouard Philippe's reelection as mayor of Le Havre reinforced his position as a leading center-right candidate for the presidency, stabilizing and slightly increasing his market price.
French prosecutors seek to uphold ban on Marine Le Pen's presidential candidacy
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Prosecutors requested the appeals court to maintain the ban on Marine Le Pen running for president due to embezzlement charges, creating uncertainty around her candidacy and negatively impacting her market price.
Édouard Philippe announces presidential campaign launch
Édouard Philippe dips to 19%2%
Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the leading centrist candidate to counter the far-right National Rally, which was reflected in a market price around 19%.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen dips to 9%1%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026 to contest her conviction and ban from running in 2027. The trial's outcome is critical for her candidacy and the far-right's electoral prospects.
Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing
Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%
Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.
Marine Le Pen begins appeal trial against embezzlement conviction
Marine Le Pen started her appeal trial aiming to overturn the conviction that barred her from running for office, creating legal uncertainty around her candidacy and affecting market sentiment.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins, threatening 2027 candidacy
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial started in January 2026, determining whether she would be eligible to run in the 2027 presidential election after her 2025 conviction barred her from public office. This legal uncertainty contributed to her market price decline from 16% to 9%, with her party's leadership shifting support to Jordan Bardella.
Édouard Philippe officially launches 2027 presidential campaign
Édouard Philippe rises to 21%2%
Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe officially launched his campaign for the 2027 presidential election, positioning himself as the main centrist candidate to challenge the far-right, which boosted his market price.
Gabriel Attal appointed Prime Minister of France
Gabriel Attal jumps to 16%11%
Gabriel Attal was named Prime Minister in January 2026, becoming the youngest to hold the position. This elevated his national profile and led to a brief increase in his market price.
Jordan Bardella breaks with Marine Le Pen on key policy issue
Jordan Bardella, expected to be the National Rally's candidate if Marine Le Pen is banned, publicly diverged from Le Pen's line on a crucial policy, impacting perceptions of his candidacy and market price.
Jordan Bardella faces legal challenges amid assistant parliamentary funds scandal
Jordan Bardella plunges to 4%30%
Jordan Bardella was implicated in a parliamentary assistants scandal with a trial held in early 2026, leading to a decline in his market price from 34% to 4% by July 2026, reflecting diminished electoral prospects.
Sarah Knafo denies presidential candidacy for 2027, launches consultation
Sarah Knafo dips to 2%3%
In January 2026, Sarah Knafo publicly denied plans to run for president in 2027 but launched a large consultation of the French public to build a program for the election. This kept her market price low, around 2%.
Sarah Knafo announces bid for Paris mayor, signaling rising political profile
Sarah Knafo plunges to 9%41%
Sarah Knafo launched her campaign for mayor of Paris in the 2026 municipal elections, which was seen as a strategic move to raise her profile ahead of the 2027 presidential election, impacting her market price.
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.
Sarah Knafo rules out candidacy for 2027 presidential election
Sarah Knafo plunges to 2%48%
Sarah Knafo, a member of the far-right Reconquête party, officially excluded herself from running in the 2027 presidential election, focusing instead on local politics such as the 2026 Paris mayoral race.
Sarah Knafo announces candidacy for 2026 Paris mayoral election, signaling political ambitions
Sarah Knafo plunges to 2%48%
Knafo's entry into the Paris mayoral race raised her profile nationally and suggested potential future presidential ambitions, impacting her market price despite her denial of a 2027 presidential run.
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from running in 2027 election
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from running for public office for five years, initially disqualifying her from the 2027 presidential race and elevating Bardella as the far-right candidate.
Édouard Philippe positions himself as natural successor to Macron
Édouard Philippe, former prime minister and leader in Macron's party Renaissance, worked to establish himself as the natural choice successor to Emmanuel Macron, influencing his market standing.
Edouard Philippe distances himself from Macron, hints at early presidential bid
Edouard Philippe publicly distanced himself from Emmanuel Macron and suggested readiness for an early presidential election, increasing his market support.
Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute
Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%
Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from running in 2027 election
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and sentenced to a five-year ban from public office, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 presidential election and impacting her market price.
Dominique de Villepin investigated over gifts received as foreign minister
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%
Dominique de Villepin was investigated for charges related to gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, causing a sharp decline in his market price and damaging his presidential prospects.
Dominique de Villepin accelerates preparations for 2027 presidential run
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 10%31%
In mid-December 2025, Dominique de Villepin signed a lease for campaign headquarters in Paris and intensified his campaign organization, signaling serious intent despite low polling. His market price dropped sharply from 41% to 10% reflecting uncertainty about his viability.
Investigation opened into Dominique de Villepin over gifts received as foreign minister
Dominique de Villepin drops to 3%5%
A preliminary investigation was launched against Dominique de Villepin concerning alleged gifts received during his tenure as foreign minister, negatively impacting his presidential prospects and market price.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella as far-right frontrunner for 2027 election
Jordan Bardella drops to 28%6%
A poll by Odoxa predicted Jordan Bardella would win the 2027 presidential election regardless of opponents, boosting his market position as the far-right candidate after Marine Le Pen's legal troubles.
Poll shows far-right leader Jordan Bardella as early favorite for 2027 presidency
Jordan Bardella dips to 30%4%
A poll by Odoxa in November 2025 indicated Jordan Bardella as the leading candidate for the 2027 French presidential election, reflecting his rising prominence within the far-right National Rally party amid Marine Le Pen's legal issues.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella winning every 2027 presidential scenario
A November 2025 Odoxa poll showed Jordan Bardella leading in all first-round scenarios and defeating all opponents in the second round, boosting his market price and positioning him as the far-right frontrunner after Marine Le Pen's ban.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading far-right candidate for 2027 French presidency
Jordan Bardella plunges to 2%32%
Polls in late 2025 showed Jordan Bardella as the leading far-right candidate, expected to succeed Marine Le Pen if her ban held. This boosted Bardella's market price initially to 34%, but his price dropped sharply to 2% after Le Pen's ban was shortened and she confirmed her candidacy.
Dominique de Villepin launches new political party 'Humanist France'
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 3%38%
Former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin announced the creation of a new political party, Humanist France, aiming to unite French citizens across political lines. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market price from 41% to 3%, reflecting skepticism about his electoral prospects despite his popularity.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon announces 2027 presidential candidacy
Mélenchon, leader of La France Insoumise, declared his intention to run in the 2027 election, marking his fourth bid. This announcement confirmed his role as a major left-wing candidate, impacting his market probability positively.
No clear dominant candidate emerges in fractured former majority coalition
A report highlighted the lack of a 'natural' candidate dominating the fractured former majority coalition ahead of the 2027 election, reflecting political uncertainty and contributing to market volatility among candidates like Édouard Philippe and others.
Odoxa poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 French presidential race
Jordan Bardella dips to 30%4%
A November 2025 Odoxa poll established Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right National Rally, as the frontrunner for the 2027 presidential election, reflecting his rising popularity amid Marine Le Pen's legal troubles. This boosted Bardella's market price significantly.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading French presidential race
A November 2025 Odoxa poll established Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-right National Rally, as the frontrunner for the 2027 presidential election, reflecting his rising popularity amid Marine Le Pen's legal troubles. This boosted Bardella's market price significantly.
Dominique de Villepin officially joins the 2027 presidential race
Dominique de Villepin plunges to 8%33%
Dominique de Villepin formally announced his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election, which initially caused a surge in his market price before it declined due to subsequent events and investigations.
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse
Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.
Jordan Bardella leads far-right National Rally with strong polling
Jordan Bardella, as the National Rally leader, was polling strongly as a potential presidential candidate, reflecting his early prominence and high market price at the start of the analysis window.
Gabriel Attal proposes major pension reform ahead of 2027 election
Gabriel Attal publicly proposed a deep reform of the French pension system, signaling his early positioning for the 2027 presidential race and boosting his profile among voters concerned with social policy.
Poll shows Jordan Bardella leading 2027 presidential race
Jordan Bardella drops to 27%7%
A November 2025 poll by Odoxa showed far-right leader Jordan Bardella as the frontrunner for the 2027 French presidential election, boosting his market price and establishing him as a dominant figure despite the crowded field.
Édouard Philippe maintains strong centrist support amid political uncertainty
Édouard Philippe, former Prime Minister and leader of Horizons, held a strong position in the centrist camp with market prices around 21%, reflecting his status as a leading candidate to succeed Macron amid political deadlock.
Édouard Philippe re-elected mayor of Le Havre, strengthening presidential bid
Édouard Philippe's re-election as mayor of Le Havre in March 2026 reinforced his status as a leading presidential candidate, stabilizing and boosting his market price as a credible centrist contender.
Édouard Philippe announces presidential ambitions at party meeting in Reims
Édouard Philippe rises to 23%2%
Édouard Philippe reaffirmed his intention to run for president in April 2027 during a party gathering in Reims, signaling the start of his campaign phase and boosting his market position as a leading centrist candidate.
Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from 2027 presidential run
Marine Le Pen drops to 10%6%
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement and banned from holding public office for five years, effectively barring her from the 2027 presidential election. This legal setback shifted far-right support towards Jordan Bardella, impacting their market probabilities.
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