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Politics·French Elections

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politics·French Elections

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

$106,065 Vol.

Apr 29, 2027
Polymarket

$106,065 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$9,448 Vol.

86%

icon for Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$6,690 Vol.

45%

icon for Édouard Philippe

Édouard Philippe

$2,174 Vol.

39%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$20,857 Vol.

10%

icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$3,231 Vol.

8%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$319 Vol.

7%

icon for Manuel Bompard

Manuel Bompard

$2,967 Vol.

7%

icon for Gabriel Attal

Gabriel Attal

$2,463 Vol.

6%

icon for Sébastien Lecornu

Sébastien Lecornu

$488 Vol.

6%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$3,760 Vol.

6%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$2,000 Vol.

6%

icon for Fabien Roussel

Fabien Roussel

$2,552 Vol.

6%

icon for Élisabeth Borne

Élisabeth Borne

$3,608 Vol.

5%

icon for Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin

$1,111 Vol.

4%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$3,253 Vol.

4%

icon for François Hollande

François Hollande

$5,061 Vol.

4%

icon for Dominique de Villepin

Dominique de Villepin

$1,114 Vol.

4%

icon for Laurent Wauquiez

Laurent Wauquiez

$610 Vol.

4%

icon for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$643 Vol.

4%

icon for Mathilde Panot

Mathilde Panot

$829 Vol.

3%

icon for Bruno Retailleau

Bruno Retailleau

$2,011 Vol.

3%

icon for Éric Zemmour

Éric Zemmour

$631 Vol.

3%

icon for David Lisnard

David Lisnard

$2,422 Vol.

3%

icon for Juan Branco

Juan Branco

$2,700 Vol.

3%

icon for François Bayrou

François Bayrou

$978 Vol.

2%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$4,776 Vol.

2%

icon for Yaël Braun-Pivet

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$2,043 Vol.

2%

icon for Sarah Knafo

Sarah Knafo

$2,693 Vol.

2%

icon for François Asselineau

François Asselineau

$1,768 Vol.

2%

icon for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier

$1,005 Vol.

2%

icon for Xavier Bertrand

Xavier Bertrand

$1,537 Vol.

1%

icon for Jean Castex

Jean Castex

$1,230 Vol.

1%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$2,851 Vol.

1%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$3,188 Vol.

1%

icon for Clémence Guetté

Clémence Guetté

$1,649 Vol.

1%

icon for Valérie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse

$1,336 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Marine Le Pen of the National Rally maintains a commanding lead in first-round polling at 34–38 percent as of August 2026, positioning the far-right party to advance reliably to the runoff in the April 2027 presidential election. Recent Toluna Harris Interactive surveys show Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise surging to 16–17 percent and qualifying for the second round in multiple scenarios against a fragmented center, outpacing or tying Édouard Philippe and other moderates. Le Pen’s July 2026 candidacy announcement followed a court ruling that shortened her prior ineligibility period, while left-wing divisions and new center-left bids such as Raphaël Glucksmann’s continue to complicate consolidation efforts among non-RN contenders. The two-round system and voter concerns over EU and NATO stances remain key variables ahead of the first-round vote.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$106,065
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Marine Le Pen of the National Rally maintains a commanding lead in first-round polling at 34–38 percent as of August 2026, positioning the far-right party to advance reliably to the runoff in the April 2027 presidential election. Recent Toluna Harris Interactive surveys show Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise surging to 16–17 percent and qualifying for the second round in multiple scenarios against a fragmented center, outpacing or tying Édouard Philippe and other moderates. Le Pen’s July 2026 candidacy announcement followed a court ruling that shortened her prior ineligibility period, while left-wing divisions and new center-left bids such as Raphaël Glucksmann’s continue to complicate consolidation efforts among non-RN contenders. The two-round system and voter concerns over EU and NATO stances remain key variables ahead of the first-round vote.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$106,065
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Related

icon for Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?

33%
icon for Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

96%
icon for Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Will Éric Zemmour announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

66%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Marine Le Pen" at 86%, followed by "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" has generated $106.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" is "Marine Le Pen" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jean-Luc Mélenchon" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.