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Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·French Election

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

$72,899 Vol.

Apr 22, 2027
Polymarket

$72,899 Vol.

Polymarket

Éric Zemmour

$2,336 Vol.

68%

Jordan Bardella

$4,914 Vol.

9%

Michel Barnier

$353 Vol.

10%

Valérie Pécresse

$526 Vol.

4%

Élisabeth Borne

$862 Vol.

6%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$661 Vol.

6%

Jean Castex

$1,017 Vol.

3%

Gérald Darmanin

$969 Vol.

3%

Sébastien Lecornu

$2,652 Vol.

15%

François Bayrou

$823 Vol.

8%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$750 Vol.

61%

Carole Delga

$1,277 Vol.

6%

Olivier Faure

$2,087 Vol.

49%

François Hollande

$1,213 Vol.

35%

Manuel Bompard

$2,932 Vol.

6%

Mathilde Panot

$17,441 Vol.

5%

Dominique de Villepin

$387 Vol.

54%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**As of late August 2026, multiple major figures have already declared presidential candidacies for the April-May 2027 election, including Marine Le Pen (July 7, following an appeals court ruling that cleared her path despite a reduced ineligibility period), Gabriel Attal (May 22), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains nominee), Édouard Philippe, and Raphaël Glucksmann (August 23, entering the socialist primary alongside figures like Jérôme Guedj and Ségolène Royal).** Emmanuel Macron’s term limit has opened the field, fueling a record number of declared or prospective candidates across the spectrum. Trader focus centers on whether remaining contenders—such as potential center or right consolidations—will formalize runs before year-end, amid polls showing the Rassemblement National leading and ongoing primaries or alliance talks that could prompt further announcements or withdrawals by late 2026. The crowded field and legal timelines continue to shape positioning.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$72,899
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**As of late August 2026, multiple major figures have already declared presidential candidacies for the April-May 2027 election, including Marine Le Pen (July 7, following an appeals court ruling that cleared her path despite a reduced ineligibility period), Gabriel Attal (May 22), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains nominee), Édouard Philippe, and Raphaël Glucksmann (August 23, entering the socialist primary alongside figures like Jérôme Guedj and Ségolène Royal).** Emmanuel Macron’s term limit has opened the field, fueling a record number of declared or prospective candidates across the spectrum. Trader focus centers on whether remaining contenders—such as potential center or right consolidations—will formalize runs before year-end, amid polls showing the Rassemblement National leading and ongoing primaries or alliance talks that could prompt further announcements or withdrawals by late 2026. The crowded field and legal timelines continue to shape positioning.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$72,899
End Date
Apr 23, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Gabriel Attal" at 100%, followed by "Raphaël Glucksmann" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" has generated $72.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is "Gabriel Attal" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Raphaël Glucksmann" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.