Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels continue to suppress tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while container lines incrementally resume Suez routing with increased use of dark transits to mitigate risks. Recent data show weekly volumes stabilizing near 220–270 crossings, including a 9% week-over-week rise in preliminary late-August figures and MSC’s seven dark passages, offset by tanker declines and a fresh strike on a Bahri VLCC. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and the market’s 47.5% implied probability on the 210–229 bin reflects trader consensus that these security dynamics and partial commercial recovery will hold volumes in that range for the week of August 31 amid persistent uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 31?
210-229 48%
<170 27%
170-189 27%
190-209 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<170
27%
170-189
27%
190-209
26%
210-229
48%
230+
26%
210-229 48%
<170 27%
170-189 27%
190-209 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<170
$0 Vol.
27%
170-189
$0 Vol.
27%
190-209
$0 Vol.
26%
210-229
$0 Vol.
48%
230+
$0 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels continue to suppress tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while container lines incrementally resume Suez routing with increased use of dark transits to mitigate risks. Recent data show weekly volumes stabilizing near 220–270 crossings, including a 9% week-over-week rise in preliminary late-August figures and MSC’s seven dark passages, offset by tanker declines and a fresh strike on a Bahri VLCC. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and the market’s 47.5% implied probability on the 210–229 bin reflects trader consensus that these security dynamics and partial commercial recovery will hold volumes in that range for the week of August 31 amid persistent uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels continue to suppress tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while container lines incrementally resume Suez routing with increased use of dark transits to mitigate risks. Recent data show weekly volumes stabilizing near 220–270 crossings, including a 9% week-over-week rise in preliminary late-August figures and MSC’s seven dark passages, offset by tanker declines and a fresh strike on a Bahri VLCC. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and the market’s 47.5% implied probability on the 210–229 bin reflects trader consensus that these security dynamics and partial commercial recovery will hold volumes in that range for the week of August 31 amid persistent uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels continue to suppress tanker transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while container lines incrementally resume Suez routing with increased use of dark transits to mitigate risks. Recent data show weekly volumes stabilizing near 220–270 crossings, including a 9% week-over-week rise in preliminary late-August figures and MSC’s seven dark passages, offset by tanker declines and a fresh strike on a Bahri VLCC. War-risk premiums remain elevated, and the market’s 47.5% implied probability on the 210–229 bin reflects trader consensus that these security dynamics and partial commercial recovery will hold volumes in that range for the week of August 31 amid persistent uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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