Iran maintains effective administrative and military control over Greater Tunb through IRGC garrisons, naval facilities, and coastal defenses, a position held since the 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory. Recent US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted missile storage and defense systems on the island to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some infrastructure without shifting territorial administration. GCC statements in late 2025 and 2026 have reiterated UAE sovereignty claims and called for talks or ICJ referral, while Iran has formally registered ownership deeds and rejected external pressure. Ongoing regional tensions, including UAE-Iran trade suspensions in August 2026, sustain the dispute but face high barriers to any near-term change in control due to Iran's entrenched presence and lack of negotiated resolution mechanisms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$54,749 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
26%
$54,749 Vol.
August 31
$32,084 Vol.
1%
September 30
$156 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains effective administrative and military control over Greater Tunb through IRGC garrisons, naval facilities, and coastal defenses, a position held since the 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory. Recent US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted missile storage and defense systems on the island to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some infrastructure without shifting territorial administration. GCC statements in late 2025 and 2026 have reiterated UAE sovereignty claims and called for talks or ICJ referral, while Iran has formally registered ownership deeds and rejected external pressure. Ongoing regional tensions, including UAE-Iran trade suspensions in August 2026, sustain the dispute but face high barriers to any near-term change in control due to Iran's entrenched presence and lack of negotiated resolution mechanisms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$54,749End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains effective administrative and military control over Greater Tunb through IRGC garrisons, naval facilities, and coastal defenses, a position held since the 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory. Recent US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted missile storage and defense systems on the island to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some infrastructure without shifting territorial administration. GCC statements in late 2025 and 2026 have reiterated UAE sovereignty claims and called for talks or ICJ referral, while Iran has formally registered ownership deeds and rejected external pressure. Ongoing regional tensions, including UAE-Iran trade suspensions in August 2026, sustain the dispute but face high barriers to any near-term change in control due to Iran's entrenched presence and lack of negotiated resolution mechanisms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,749End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains effective administrative and military control over Greater Tunb through IRGC garrisons, naval facilities, and coastal defenses, a position held since the 1971 seizure from what became UAE territory. Recent US airstrikes in July 2026 targeted missile storage and defense systems on the island to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, degrading some infrastructure without shifting territorial administration. GCC statements in late 2025 and 2026 have reiterated UAE sovereignty claims and called for talks or ICJ referral, while Iran has formally registered ownership deeds and rejected external pressure. Ongoing regional tensions, including UAE-Iran trade suspensions in August 2026, sustain the dispute but face high barriers to any near-term change in control due to Iran's entrenched presence and lack of negotiated resolution mechanisms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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