Iran's ongoing efforts to assert exclusive management of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz amid a protracted conflict with the United States form the central driver of trader assessments regarding Hormuz Island's status. Tehran has reinforced its claims of sovereignty via diplomatic outreach, including August 2026 talks with Oman on a joint temporary navigational corridor and mine clearance, while issuing blacklists against non-compliant vessels and maintaining enforcement actions that limit traffic. The United States has countered with blockades, sanctions pressure, and assertions of its own operational control, though recent reporting indicates a focus on economic measures rather than immediate new strikes. These dynamics, set against the island's location at the strait's eastern entrance and Iran's territorial claims under the coastal-state framework, highlight risks of escalation or negotiated shifts that could alter de facto control before any specified resolution date. Scheduled technical follow-ups between Iran and Oman, alongside potential further sanctions or diplomatic rounds, represent near-term catalysts that could influence perceived probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$64,687 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$64,687 Vol.
August 31
$52,745 Vol.
1%
September 30
$205 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ongoing efforts to assert exclusive management of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz amid a protracted conflict with the United States form the central driver of trader assessments regarding Hormuz Island's status. Tehran has reinforced its claims of sovereignty via diplomatic outreach, including August 2026 talks with Oman on a joint temporary navigational corridor and mine clearance, while issuing blacklists against non-compliant vessels and maintaining enforcement actions that limit traffic. The United States has countered with blockades, sanctions pressure, and assertions of its own operational control, though recent reporting indicates a focus on economic measures rather than immediate new strikes. These dynamics, set against the island's location at the strait's eastern entrance and Iran's territorial claims under the coastal-state framework, highlight risks of escalation or negotiated shifts that could alter de facto control before any specified resolution date. Scheduled technical follow-ups between Iran and Oman, alongside potential further sanctions or diplomatic rounds, represent near-term catalysts that could influence perceived probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$64,687End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ongoing efforts to assert exclusive management of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz amid a protracted conflict with the United States form the central driver of trader assessments regarding Hormuz Island's status. Tehran has reinforced its claims of sovereignty via diplomatic outreach, including August 2026 talks with Oman on a joint temporary navigational corridor and mine clearance, while issuing blacklists against non-compliant vessels and maintaining enforcement actions that limit traffic. The United States has countered with blockades, sanctions pressure, and assertions of its own operational control, though recent reporting indicates a focus on economic measures rather than immediate new strikes. These dynamics, set against the island's location at the strait's eastern entrance and Iran's territorial claims under the coastal-state framework, highlight risks of escalation or negotiated shifts that could alter de facto control before any specified resolution date. Scheduled technical follow-ups between Iran and Oman, alongside potential further sanctions or diplomatic rounds, represent near-term catalysts that could influence perceived probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,687End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's ongoing efforts to assert exclusive management of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz amid a protracted conflict with the United States form the central driver of trader assessments regarding Hormuz Island's status. Tehran has reinforced its claims of sovereignty via diplomatic outreach, including August 2026 talks with Oman on a joint temporary navigational corridor and mine clearance, while issuing blacklists against non-compliant vessels and maintaining enforcement actions that limit traffic. The United States has countered with blockades, sanctions pressure, and assertions of its own operational control, though recent reporting indicates a focus on economic measures rather than immediate new strikes. These dynamics, set against the island's location at the strait's eastern entrance and Iran's territorial claims under the coastal-state framework, highlight risks of escalation or negotiated shifts that could alter de facto control before any specified resolution date. Scheduled technical follow-ups between Iran and Oman, alongside potential further sanctions or diplomatic rounds, represent near-term catalysts that could influence perceived probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions