**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict, now in its sixth month, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below normal levels, supporting the 74% market-implied probability on "No" for a return to normal by November 30.** Since the effective closure began around February 28, 2026, daily vessel transits have averaged roughly 5–15 per day—about 7–15% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74–95—according to maritime trackers like IMF PortWatch and Kpler. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at around 40 times peacetime levels, deterring operators, while hundreds of vessels and thousands of sailors stay stranded. Recent developments, including Iran's August 2026 ship blacklisting, enforcement actions, and stalled US-Iran diplomatic efforts after a June memorandum produced only a temporary rebound, have prevented sustained recovery. Talks with Oman on a potential corridor have not yet restored predictable, high-volume flows amid lingering risks such as selective routing, "dark" transits, and security incidents. These entrenched dynamics—high insurance costs, Iranian control measures, and unresolved hostilities—make full normalization within the next three months appear unlikely to most traders, though any breakthrough in de-escalation or mine clearance could still shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26% chance
$145,069 Vol.
$145,069 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
26% chance
$145,069 Vol.
$145,069 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict, now in its sixth month, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below normal levels, supporting the 74% market-implied probability on "No" for a return to normal by November 30.**
Since the effective closure began around February 28, 2026, daily vessel transits have averaged roughly 5–15 per day—about 7–15% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74–95—according to maritime trackers like IMF PortWatch and Kpler. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at around 40 times peacetime levels, deterring operators, while hundreds of vessels and thousands of sailors stay stranded. Recent developments, including Iran's August 2026 ship blacklisting, enforcement actions, and stalled US-Iran diplomatic efforts after a June memorandum produced only a temporary rebound, have prevented sustained recovery. Talks with Oman on a potential corridor have not yet restored predictable, high-volume flows amid lingering risks such as selective routing, "dark" transits, and security incidents.
These entrenched dynamics—high insurance costs, Iranian control measures, and unresolved hostilities—make full normalization within the next three months appear unlikely to most traders, though any breakthrough in de-escalation or mine clearance could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$145,069End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict, now in its sixth month, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below normal levels, supporting the 74% market-implied probability on "No" for a return to normal by November 30.**
Since the effective closure began around February 28, 2026, daily vessel transits have averaged roughly 5–15 per day—about 7–15% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74–95—according to maritime trackers like IMF PortWatch and Kpler. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at around 40 times peacetime levels, deterring operators, while hundreds of vessels and thousands of sailors stay stranded. Recent developments, including Iran's August 2026 ship blacklisting, enforcement actions, and stalled US-Iran diplomatic efforts after a June memorandum produced only a temporary rebound, have prevented sustained recovery. Talks with Oman on a potential corridor have not yet restored predictable, high-volume flows amid lingering risks such as selective routing, "dark" transits, and security incidents.
These entrenched dynamics—high insurance costs, Iranian control measures, and unresolved hostilities—make full normalization within the next three months appear unlikely to most traders, though any breakthrough in de-escalation or mine clearance could still shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$145,069End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Iran conflict, now in its sixth month, continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz far below normal levels, supporting the 74% market-implied probability on "No" for a return to normal by November 30.** Since the effective closure began around February 28, 2026, daily vessel transits have averaged roughly 5–15 per day—about 7–15% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74–95—according to maritime trackers like IMF PortWatch and Kpler. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at around 40 times peacetime levels, deterring operators, while hundreds of vessels and thousands of sailors stay stranded. Recent developments, including Iran's August 2026 ship blacklisting, enforcement actions, and stalled US-Iran diplomatic efforts after a June memorandum produced only a temporary rebound, have prevented sustained recovery. Talks with Oman on a potential corridor have not yet restored predictable, high-volume flows amid lingering risks such as selective routing, "dark" transits, and security incidents. These entrenched dynamics—high insurance costs, Iranian control measures, and unresolved hostilities—make full normalization within the next three months appear unlikely to most traders, though any breakthrough in de-escalation or mine clearance could still shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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