US-Iran diplomacy centers on implementing the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day window for broader talks on the nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues after an interim ceasefire. High-level exchanges occurred in Switzerland in late June, led for the US by Vice President JD Vance and for Iran by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with working groups formed on nuclear affairs and sanctions. The deadline expired in mid-August without a final accord, amid mutual accusations of violations and renewed tensions, leaving direct negotiations stalled. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar continue low-level messaging, while Iranian officials have signaled reluctance to restart without prior commitments on Hormuz and blockades. Key variables for future rounds include leadership involvement from President Trump or Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, potential venues such as Qatar or Oman, and any movement on IAEA inspections or reconstruction funding.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$312,396 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
46%
Jared Kushner
44%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
43%
Abbas Araghchi
34%
Ishaq Dar
31%
J.D. Vance
31%
Mohammed bin Salman
27%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
20%
Nick Stewart
19%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
19%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Donald Trump
14%
Marco Rubio
14%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Rafael Grossi
12%
Ahmad Vahidi
10%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$312,396 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$18,343 Vol.
46%
Jared Kushner
$14,852 Vol.
44%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,943 Vol.
43%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,593 Vol.
34%
Ishaq Dar
$17,547 Vol.
31%
J.D. Vance
$20,976 Vol.
31%
Mohammed bin Salman
$0 Vol.
27%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,478 Vol.
24%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$30,896 Vol.
20%
Nick Stewart
$12,132 Vol.
19%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$30,140 Vol.
19%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,946 Vol.
18%
Donald Trump
$7,500 Vol.
14%
Marco Rubio
$13,370 Vol.
14%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,279 Vol.
13%
Rafael Grossi
$20,302 Vol.
12%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,906 Vol.
10%
Pete Hegseth
$15,413 Vol.
9%
Esmail Qaani
$10,890 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,890 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy centers on implementing the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day window for broader talks on the nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues after an interim ceasefire. High-level exchanges occurred in Switzerland in late June, led for the US by Vice President JD Vance and for Iran by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with working groups formed on nuclear affairs and sanctions. The deadline expired in mid-August without a final accord, amid mutual accusations of violations and renewed tensions, leaving direct negotiations stalled. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar continue low-level messaging, while Iranian officials have signaled reluctance to restart without prior commitments on Hormuz and blockades. Key variables for future rounds include leadership involvement from President Trump or Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, potential venues such as Qatar or Oman, and any movement on IAEA inspections or reconstruction funding.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$312,396End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomacy centers on implementing the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day window for broader talks on the nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues after an interim ceasefire. High-level exchanges occurred in Switzerland in late June, led for the US by Vice President JD Vance and for Iran by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with working groups formed on nuclear affairs and sanctions. The deadline expired in mid-August without a final accord, amid mutual accusations of violations and renewed tensions, leaving direct negotiations stalled. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar continue low-level messaging, while Iranian officials have signaled reluctance to restart without prior commitments on Hormuz and blockades. Key variables for future rounds include leadership involvement from President Trump or Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, potential venues such as Qatar or Oman, and any movement on IAEA inspections or reconstruction funding.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$312,396End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomacy centers on implementing the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which established a 60-day window for broader talks on the nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues after an interim ceasefire. High-level exchanges occurred in Switzerland in late June, led for the US by Vice President JD Vance and for Iran by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, with working groups formed on nuclear affairs and sanctions. The deadline expired in mid-August without a final accord, amid mutual accusations of violations and renewed tensions, leaving direct negotiations stalled. Mediators Pakistan and Qatar continue low-level messaging, while Iranian officials have signaled reluctance to restart without prior commitments on Hormuz and blockades. Key variables for future rounds include leadership involvement from President Trump or Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, potential venues such as Qatar or Oman, and any movement on IAEA inspections or reconstruction funding.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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