Russia’s ongoing campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with forces sustaining slow advances in the Donbas amid high casualties and equipment losses. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments note the possibility of limited provocations or hybrid actions against NATO members as early as late 2026, but assign low probability to any conventional land incursion or new territorial seizure. Moscow is preparing administrative steps for additional mobilization after September parliamentary elections, primarily to sustain operations in Ukraine rather than open a second front. Baltic and Polish officials have reported signs of potential hybrid pressure, yet multiple assessments conclude Russia lacks the reconstituted conventional strength for a major offensive against another sovereign state this year. Trader consensus on a low likelihood of invasion therefore reflects Russia’s stretched posture and the risks of triggering Article 5 commitments.