Ongoing conflict with Russia and the requirement for unanimous NATO member approval continue to block Ukraine’s accession path before 2027. Recent NATO summits have delivered substantial military aid pledges while explicitly deferring membership questions, with U.S. policy under the current administration ruling out enlargement and several allies citing interoperability gaps and Article 5 risks during active hostilities. Statements from Ukrainian officials and former commanders have underscored these military and political hurdles. Trader consensus at 96.5% for “No” reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any near-term diplomatic breakthrough. Late resolution of the war combined with rapid security guarantees acceptable to all 32 allies remains the primary scenario that could still shift probabilities.