Traders assign a 97.9% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not serve jail time before 2027, reflecting the closure of the sole prior DOJ probe into his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations without any charges or evidence of criminal conduct. The April 2026 referral to the Fed inspector general left no active federal, state, or local cases, consistent with historical precedent that political disagreements over monetary policy have never produced indictments against senior central bankers. Powell’s continued service as a Board governor through 2028 further underscores institutional safeguards and evidentiary thresholds. While remote tail risks such as novel political prosecutions cannot be fully excluded in a polarized environment, current records show no developments that would alter this consensus ahead of year-end.