Recent July FOMC minutes and the 9-3 hold vote at the 3.50-3.75% target range underscore the closely balanced policy debate, with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike amid 3.7% headline PCE inflation and supply shocks from Middle East energy pressures. Trader sentiment on the Polymarket remains split near 51-46% between all-pause and alternative paths through October because labor market stability at 4.1% unemployment and solid productivity growth offset persistent above-target price pressures, while futures markets price a roughly 40% September hike probability. Key swing factors include the upcoming September 15-16 decision, August inflation and employment data, and any clarification from Chair Warsh on whether supply-driven inflation warrants tighter policy before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 46%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$727,164 Vol.
$727,164 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
46%
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 46%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.3%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$727,164 Vol.
$727,164 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$239,786 Vol.
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 Vol.
<1%
Other
$314,344 Vol.
46%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC minutes and the 9-3 hold vote at the 3.50-3.75% target range underscore the closely balanced policy debate, with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike amid 3.7% headline PCE inflation and supply shocks from Middle East energy pressures. Trader sentiment on the Polymarket remains split near 51-46% between all-pause and alternative paths through October because labor market stability at 4.1% unemployment and solid productivity growth offset persistent above-target price pressures, while futures markets price a roughly 40% September hike probability. Key swing factors include the upcoming September 15-16 decision, August inflation and employment data, and any clarification from Chair Warsh on whether supply-driven inflation warrants tighter policy before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$727,164End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC minutes and the 9-3 hold vote at the 3.50-3.75% target range underscore the closely balanced policy debate, with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike amid 3.7% headline PCE inflation and supply shocks from Middle East energy pressures. Trader sentiment on the Polymarket remains split near 51-46% between all-pause and alternative paths through October because labor market stability at 4.1% unemployment and solid productivity growth offset persistent above-target price pressures, while futures markets price a roughly 40% September hike probability. Key swing factors include the upcoming September 15-16 decision, August inflation and employment data, and any clarification from Chair Warsh on whether supply-driven inflation warrants tighter policy before year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$727,164End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July FOMC minutes and the 9-3 hold vote at the 3.50-3.75% target range underscore the closely balanced policy debate, with three members favoring a 25 basis point hike amid 3.7% headline PCE inflation and supply shocks from Middle East energy pressures. Trader sentiment on the Polymarket remains split near 51-46% between all-pause and alternative paths through October because labor market stability at 4.1% unemployment and solid productivity growth offset persistent above-target price pressures, while futures markets price a roughly 40% September hike probability. Key swing factors include the upcoming September 15-16 decision, August inflation and employment data, and any clarification from Chair Warsh on whether supply-driven inflation warrants tighter policy before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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