Christine Lagarde’s eight-year ECB term runs until October 2027, and recent statements have reinforced expectations she will complete most or all of 2026 in the role. In July 2026 she explicitly pledged to remain through year-end and into 2027, stressing the need for continuity amid energy-price volatility, inflation risks, and monetary-policy decisions, while declining to be “boxed in” on an exact exit date. Speculation over an earlier departure—to influence successor selection ahead of France’s 2027 presidential vote or to lead the World Economic Forum—has produced no confirmed timeline or resignation signals. European leaders continue routine succession discussions, yet the lack of any binding announcement or institutional pressure keeps the consensus probability that she departs in 2026 at the lower level reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated31% chance
$20,707 Vol.
$20,707 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
31% chance
$20,707 Vol.
$20,707 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Christine Lagarde’s eight-year ECB term runs until October 2027, and recent statements have reinforced expectations she will complete most or all of 2026 in the role. In July 2026 she explicitly pledged to remain through year-end and into 2027, stressing the need for continuity amid energy-price volatility, inflation risks, and monetary-policy decisions, while declining to be “boxed in” on an exact exit date. Speculation over an earlier departure—to influence successor selection ahead of France’s 2027 presidential vote or to lead the World Economic Forum—has produced no confirmed timeline or resignation signals. European leaders continue routine succession discussions, yet the lack of any binding announcement or institutional pressure keeps the consensus probability that she departs in 2026 at the lower level reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,707End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Christine Lagarde’s eight-year ECB term runs until October 2027, and recent statements have reinforced expectations she will complete most or all of 2026 in the role. In July 2026 she explicitly pledged to remain through year-end and into 2027, stressing the need for continuity amid energy-price volatility, inflation risks, and monetary-policy decisions, while declining to be “boxed in” on an exact exit date. Speculation over an earlier departure—to influence successor selection ahead of France’s 2027 presidential vote or to lead the World Economic Forum—has produced no confirmed timeline or resignation signals. European leaders continue routine succession discussions, yet the lack of any binding announcement or institutional pressure keeps the consensus probability that she departs in 2026 at the lower level reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Christine Lagarde ceases to be the President of the European Central Bank for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Lagarde's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Christine Lagarde and the European Central Bank; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,707End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Christine Lagarde’s eight-year ECB term runs until October 2027, and recent statements have reinforced expectations she will complete most or all of 2026 in the role. In July 2026 she explicitly pledged to remain through year-end and into 2027, stressing the need for continuity amid energy-price volatility, inflation risks, and monetary-policy decisions, while declining to be “boxed in” on an exact exit date. Speculation over an earlier departure—to influence successor selection ahead of France’s 2027 presidential vote or to lead the World Economic Forum—has produced no confirmed timeline or resignation signals. European leaders continue routine succession discussions, yet the lack of any binding announcement or institutional pressure keeps the consensus probability that she departs in 2026 at the lower level reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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