**Market-implied odds heavily favor no ECB rate cut in 2026, with the 93% probability on “No” reflecting the bank’s hawkish pivot amid persistent inflation pressures.** Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation near 3% and prompting a 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% in June, with markets pricing a further increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Euro-area growth has proven resilient and labor markets tight, supporting the ECB’s data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Professional forecasters see the policy rate peaking around 2.50% through year-end before any gradual decline. A durable de-escalation that rapidly lowers energy costs and inflation could still open the door to cuts later in 2026, though current pricing assigns that scenario low odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no ECB rate cut in 2026, with the 93% probability on “No” reflecting the bank’s hawkish pivot amid persistent inflation pressures.** Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation near 3% and prompting a 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% in June, with markets pricing a further increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Euro-area growth has proven resilient and labor markets tight, supporting the ECB’s data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Professional forecasters see the policy rate peaking around 2.50% through year-end before any gradual decline. A durable de-escalation that rapidly lowers energy costs and inflation could still open the door to cuts later in 2026, though current pricing assigns that scenario low odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no ECB rate cut in 2026, with the 93% probability on “No” reflecting the bank’s hawkish pivot amid persistent inflation pressures.** Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation near 3% and prompting a 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% in June, with markets pricing a further increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Euro-area growth has proven resilient and labor markets tight, supporting the ECB’s data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Professional forecasters see the policy rate peaking around 2.50% through year-end before any gradual decline. A durable de-escalation that rapidly lowers energy costs and inflation could still open the door to cuts later in 2026, though current pricing assigns that scenario low odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Market-implied odds heavily favor no ECB rate cut in 2026, with the 93% probability on “No” reflecting the bank’s hawkish pivot amid persistent inflation pressures.** Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven energy prices higher, pushing headline inflation near 3% and prompting a 25-basis-point deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% in June, with markets pricing a further increase to 2.50% at the September 10 meeting. Euro-area growth has proven resilient and labor markets tight, supporting the ECB’s data-dependent stance that prioritizes containing second-round effects over easing. Professional forecasters see the policy rate peaking around 2.50% through year-end before any gradual decline. A durable de-escalation that rapidly lowers energy costs and inflation could still open the door to cuts later in 2026, though current pricing assigns that scenario low odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions