Recent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, alongside elevated inflation and Middle East energy price pressures, has kept the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands nearly tied in trader-implied odds. Offsetting these headwinds, resilient consumer spending revisions, broadening business investment tied to AI capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds from prior legislation support forecasts clustering near 2.1% for full-year 2026. Geopolitical risks, tariff effects on trade flows, and moderating labor-force growth create uncertainty around whether growth accelerates modestly or settles below trend, with third-quarter data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift sentiment between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 35.5%
2.0–2.5% 34%
>2.5% 26%
1.0–1.5% 8.1%
$58,636 Vol.
$58,636 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
36%
2.0–2.5%
34%
>2.5%
20%
1.5–2.0% 35.5%
2.0–2.5% 34%
>2.5% 26%
1.0–1.5% 8.1%
$58,636 Vol.
$58,636 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,561 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$17,293 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$3,825 Vol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$6,690 Vol.
36%
2.0–2.5%
$7,256 Vol.
34%
>2.5%
$16,011 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, alongside elevated inflation and Middle East energy price pressures, has kept the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands nearly tied in trader-implied odds. Offsetting these headwinds, resilient consumer spending revisions, broadening business investment tied to AI capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds from prior legislation support forecasts clustering near 2.1% for full-year 2026. Geopolitical risks, tariff effects on trade flows, and moderating labor-force growth create uncertainty around whether growth accelerates modestly or settles below trend, with third-quarter data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift sentiment between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$58,636End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, alongside elevated inflation and Middle East energy price pressures, has kept the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands nearly tied in trader-implied odds. Offsetting these headwinds, resilient consumer spending revisions, broadening business investment tied to AI capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds from prior legislation support forecasts clustering near 2.1% for full-year 2026. Geopolitical risks, tariff effects on trade flows, and moderating labor-force growth create uncertainty around whether growth accelerates modestly or settles below trend, with third-quarter data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift sentiment between the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,636End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent second-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, alongside elevated inflation and Middle East energy price pressures, has kept the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% bands nearly tied in trader-implied odds. Offsetting these headwinds, resilient consumer spending revisions, broadening business investment tied to AI capital expenditures, and fiscal tailwinds from prior legislation support forecasts clustering near 2.1% for full-year 2026. Geopolitical risks, tariff effects on trade flows, and moderating labor-force growth create uncertainty around whether growth accelerates modestly or settles below trend, with third-quarter data releases and FOMC communications likely to shift sentiment between the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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