Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum amid the Middle East energy shock, with the Bank of England projecting underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as higher energy prices erode real incomes and elevate uncertainty. Independent forecasts cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ, consistent with services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness and tight financial conditions at the 3.75% Bank Rate. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins, alongside elevated odds on negative or flat outcomes, underscores the narrow range of outcomes priced amid volatile energy pass-through to CPI and limited visibility into September data or fiscal signals ahead of the Autumn Budget.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2–0.3% 28%
0.4–0.5% 22%
Negative 19%
0.0–0.1% 17%
$12,609 Vol.
$12,609 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
19%
0.0–0.1%
17%
0.2–0.3%
28%
0.4–0.5%
22%
0.6–0.7%
6%
0.8–0.9%
1%
1.0%+
1%
0.2–0.3% 28%
0.4–0.5% 22%
Negative 19%
0.0–0.1% 17%
$12,609 Vol.
$12,609 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$1,960 Vol.
19%
0.0–0.1%
$5,186 Vol.
17%
0.2–0.3%
$4,053 Vol.
28%
0.4–0.5%
$781 Vol.
22%
0.6–0.7%
$229 Vol.
6%
0.8–0.9%
$195 Vol.
1%
1.0%+
$231 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum amid the Middle East energy shock, with the Bank of England projecting underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as higher energy prices erode real incomes and elevate uncertainty. Independent forecasts cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ, consistent with services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness and tight financial conditions at the 3.75% Bank Rate. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins, alongside elevated odds on negative or flat outcomes, underscores the narrow range of outcomes priced amid volatile energy pass-through to CPI and limited visibility into September data or fiscal signals ahead of the Autumn Budget.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$12,609End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum amid the Middle East energy shock, with the Bank of England projecting underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as higher energy prices erode real incomes and elevate uncertainty. Independent forecasts cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ, consistent with services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness and tight financial conditions at the 3.75% Bank Rate. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins, alongside elevated odds on negative or flat outcomes, underscores the narrow range of outcomes priced amid volatile energy pass-through to CPI and limited visibility into September data or fiscal signals ahead of the Autumn Budget.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$12,609End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP expansion of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum amid the Middle East energy shock, with the Bank of England projecting underlying growth near 0% for Q3 as higher energy prices erode real incomes and elevate uncertainty. Independent forecasts cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ, consistent with services resilience offset by manufacturing weakness and tight financial conditions at the 3.75% Bank Rate. Trader consensus reflected in the leading 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins, alongside elevated odds on negative or flat outcomes, underscores the narrow range of outcomes priced amid volatile energy pass-through to CPI and limited visibility into September data or fiscal signals ahead of the Autumn Budget.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions