China’s full-year 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment around the 4.0–5.0% band, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.6%. First-half growth reached 4.7% year-on-year, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing. July activity data showed further softening in demand, prompting Goldman Sachs to estimate early Q3 growth near 4% and raising expectations for additional monetary or fiscal easing. Structural headwinds including demographics and subdued private investment continue to limit upside, while policy support for new growth drivers and export momentum anchor the central range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 7.8%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$881,924 Vol.
$881,924 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
8%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 7.8%
8.0–9.0% 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
$881,924 Vol.
$881,924 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$64,833 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,220 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$221,068 Vol.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$80,639 Vol.
8%
6.0-7.0%
$83,592 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,054 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$116,070 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s full-year 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment around the 4.0–5.0% band, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.6%. First-half growth reached 4.7% year-on-year, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing. July activity data showed further softening in demand, prompting Goldman Sachs to estimate early Q3 growth near 4% and raising expectations for additional monetary or fiscal easing. Structural headwinds including demographics and subdued private investment continue to limit upside, while policy support for new growth drivers and export momentum anchor the central range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$881,924End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s full-year 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment around the 4.0–5.0% band, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.6%. First-half growth reached 4.7% year-on-year, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing. July activity data showed further softening in demand, prompting Goldman Sachs to estimate early Q3 growth near 4% and raising expectations for additional monetary or fiscal easing. Structural headwinds including demographics and subdued private investment continue to limit upside, while policy support for new growth drivers and export momentum anchor the central range.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$881,924End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s full-year 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader alignment around the 4.0–5.0% band, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5% and consensus forecasts from institutions such as the World Bank (4.4%), IMF (4.6%), and others near 4.5–4.6%. First-half growth reached 4.7% year-on-year, with Q1 at 5.0% and Q2 slowing to 4.3% amid weak domestic consumption and ongoing property-sector adjustment, offset by resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing. July activity data showed further softening in demand, prompting Goldman Sachs to estimate early Q3 growth near 4% and raising expectations for additional monetary or fiscal easing. Structural headwinds including demographics and subdued private investment continue to limit upside, while policy support for new growth drivers and export momentum anchor the central range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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