Recent Q2 GDP data showing only 1.1% annualized growth—below expectations and driven by flat private consumption plus contracting capital expenditure—has compressed trader-implied odds for Q3 2026 toward the 0.0%-0.8% range at 29%, with the adjacent negative bucket at 21.5%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments continue to squeeze household real incomes and business margins, only partially offset by wage gains, AI-related export strength, and targeted government subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate, core inflation accelerating toward 2%, and upcoming September meeting add policy uncertainty, while yen volatility and external demand trends remain primary swing factors for the November preliminary release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.0%–0.8% 29%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.8%–1.6% 16%
-1.6%– -0.8% 9%
$15,451 Vol.
$15,451 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
9%
-0.8%–0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.8%
29%
0.8%–1.6%
18%
1.6%–2.4%
2%
2.4%–3.2%
1%
3.2%–4.0%
5%
4.0%+
1%
0.0%–0.8% 29%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
0.8%–1.6% 16%
-1.6%– -0.8% 9%
$15,451 Vol.
$15,451 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$191 Vol.
1%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$2,997 Vol.
6%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$212 Vol.
9%
-0.8%–0.0%
$1,917 Vol.
22%
0.0%–0.8%
$5,787 Vol.
29%
0.8%–1.6%
$313 Vol.
18%
1.6%–2.4%
$243 Vol.
2%
2.4%–3.2%
$2,486 Vol.
1%
3.2%–4.0%
$832 Vol.
5%
4.0%+
$472 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 GDP data showing only 1.1% annualized growth—below expectations and driven by flat private consumption plus contracting capital expenditure—has compressed trader-implied odds for Q3 2026 toward the 0.0%-0.8% range at 29%, with the adjacent negative bucket at 21.5%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments continue to squeeze household real incomes and business margins, only partially offset by wage gains, AI-related export strength, and targeted government subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate, core inflation accelerating toward 2%, and upcoming September meeting add policy uncertainty, while yen volatility and external demand trends remain primary swing factors for the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$15,451End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Q2 GDP data showing only 1.1% annualized growth—below expectations and driven by flat private consumption plus contracting capital expenditure—has compressed trader-implied odds for Q3 2026 toward the 0.0%-0.8% range at 29%, with the adjacent negative bucket at 21.5%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments continue to squeeze household real incomes and business margins, only partially offset by wage gains, AI-related export strength, and targeted government subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate, core inflation accelerating toward 2%, and upcoming September meeting add policy uncertainty, while yen volatility and external demand trends remain primary swing factors for the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$15,451End Date
Nov 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 GDP data showing only 1.1% annualized growth—below expectations and driven by flat private consumption plus contracting capital expenditure—has compressed trader-implied odds for Q3 2026 toward the 0.0%-0.8% range at 29%, with the adjacent negative bucket at 21.5%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments continue to squeeze household real incomes and business margins, only partially offset by wage gains, AI-related export strength, and targeted government subsidies. The Bank of Japan’s 1% policy rate, core inflation accelerating toward 2%, and upcoming September meeting add policy uncertainty, while yen volatility and external demand trends remain primary swing factors for the November preliminary release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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