Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted legislation reducing federal long-term capital gains rates or broadly altering their calculation ahead of the 2026 deadline. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 made prior individual tax provisions permanent but left the 0/15/20 percent structure unchanged. Targeted proposals floated in August 2026—such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded exclusions for primary residence sales—remain exploratory statements from administration officials and stalled bills in committee, with no scheduled reconciliation votes or floor action before year-end. Midterm timing pressures and procedural requirements for tax changes have kept broader rate reductions off the legislative calendar, sustaining trader expectations that no qualifying cut will occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated13% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
13% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted legislation reducing federal long-term capital gains rates or broadly altering their calculation ahead of the 2026 deadline. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 made prior individual tax provisions permanent but left the 0/15/20 percent structure unchanged. Targeted proposals floated in August 2026—such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded exclusions for primary residence sales—remain exploratory statements from administration officials and stalled bills in committee, with no scheduled reconciliation votes or floor action before year-end. Midterm timing pressures and procedural requirements for tax changes have kept broader rate reductions off the legislative calendar, sustaining trader expectations that no qualifying cut will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$228End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted legislation reducing federal long-term capital gains rates or broadly altering their calculation ahead of the 2026 deadline. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 made prior individual tax provisions permanent but left the 0/15/20 percent structure unchanged. Targeted proposals floated in August 2026—such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded exclusions for primary residence sales—remain exploratory statements from administration officials and stalled bills in committee, with no scheduled reconciliation votes or floor action before year-end. Midterm timing pressures and procedural requirements for tax changes have kept broader rate reductions off the legislative calendar, sustaining trader expectations that no qualifying cut will occur.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$228End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republican control of the White House and Congress has produced no enacted legislation reducing federal long-term capital gains rates or broadly altering their calculation ahead of the 2026 deadline. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 made prior individual tax provisions permanent but left the 0/15/20 percent structure unchanged. Targeted proposals floated in August 2026—such as inflation indexing of basis or expanded exclusions for primary residence sales—remain exploratory statements from administration officials and stalled bills in committee, with no scheduled reconciliation votes or floor action before year-end. Midterm timing pressures and procedural requirements for tax changes have kept broader rate reductions off the legislative calendar, sustaining trader expectations that no qualifying cut will occur.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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