**The high probability assigned to "No" reflects the legislative outcome of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025.** That reconciliation package permanently extended numerous TCJA business provisions—including full expensing for R&D and equipment, restored bonus depreciation, and adjusted interest limits—while leaving the statutory corporate rate fixed at 21 percent. Trump’s earlier campaign proposal to reduce the rate to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers did not advance amid competing priorities and fiscal scoring constraints. With roughly four months remaining before the 2027 deadline and no active congressional push for further rate legislation evident, trader consensus aligns with the absence of scheduled floor action or viable vehicles capable of delivering a headline cut in the current session.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
$16,010 Vol.
$16,010 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
17% chance
$16,010 Vol.
$16,010 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
**The high probability assigned to "No" reflects the legislative outcome of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025.** That reconciliation package permanently extended numerous TCJA business provisions—including full expensing for R&D and equipment, restored bonus depreciation, and adjusted interest limits—while leaving the statutory corporate rate fixed at 21 percent. Trump’s earlier campaign proposal to reduce the rate to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers did not advance amid competing priorities and fiscal scoring constraints. With roughly four months remaining before the 2027 deadline and no active congressional push for further rate legislation evident, trader consensus aligns with the absence of scheduled floor action or viable vehicles capable of delivering a headline cut in the current session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ET
Volume
$16,010End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
**The high probability assigned to "No" reflects the legislative outcome of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025.** That reconciliation package permanently extended numerous TCJA business provisions—including full expensing for R&D and equipment, restored bonus depreciation, and adjusted interest limits—while leaving the statutory corporate rate fixed at 21 percent. Trump’s earlier campaign proposal to reduce the rate to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers did not advance amid competing priorities and fiscal scoring constraints. With roughly four months remaining before the 2027 deadline and no active congressional push for further rate legislation evident, trader consensus aligns with the absence of scheduled floor action or viable vehicles capable of delivering a headline cut in the current session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$16,010End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The high probability assigned to "No" reflects the legislative outcome of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025.** That reconciliation package permanently extended numerous TCJA business provisions—including full expensing for R&D and equipment, restored bonus depreciation, and adjusted interest limits—while leaving the statutory corporate rate fixed at 21 percent. Trump’s earlier campaign proposal to reduce the rate to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers did not advance amid competing priorities and fiscal scoring constraints. With roughly four months remaining before the 2027 deadline and no active congressional push for further rate legislation evident, trader consensus aligns with the absence of scheduled floor action or viable vehicles capable of delivering a headline cut in the current session.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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