**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, multiple Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and heavily funded counter-campaigns by affected billionaires such as Sergey Brin have shaped trader expectations against passage.** The measure, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the worldwide net worth above $1 billion for roughly 200–250 California residents as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures. However, negotiations to withdraw it failed, and opponents placed competing initiatives on the ballot designed to nullify or restrict its effects if approved. Analyses from the Legislative Analyst’s Office and others highlight risks of reduced future income tax revenue due to high-net-worth departures, while early polling showed only modest support that has faced sustained advertising pressure. These dynamics reflect trader consensus that the coalition against the initiative, combined with procedural hurdles and fiscal concerns, makes enactment unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$3,685,829 Vol.
$3,685,829 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
29% chance
$3,685,829 Vol.
$3,685,829 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, multiple Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and heavily funded counter-campaigns by affected billionaires such as Sergey Brin have shaped trader expectations against passage.** The measure, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the worldwide net worth above $1 billion for roughly 200–250 California residents as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures. However, negotiations to withdraw it failed, and opponents placed competing initiatives on the ballot designed to nullify or restrict its effects if approved. Analyses from the Legislative Analyst’s Office and others highlight risks of reduced future income tax revenue due to high-net-worth departures, while early polling showed only modest support that has faced sustained advertising pressure. These dynamics reflect trader consensus that the coalition against the initiative, combined with procedural hurdles and fiscal concerns, makes enactment unlikely.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,685,829End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, multiple Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and heavily funded counter-campaigns by affected billionaires such as Sergey Brin have shaped trader expectations against passage.** The measure, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the worldwide net worth above $1 billion for roughly 200–250 California residents as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures. However, negotiations to withdraw it failed, and opponents placed competing initiatives on the ballot designed to nullify or restrict its effects if approved. Analyses from the Legislative Analyst’s Office and others highlight risks of reduced future income tax revenue due to high-net-worth departures, while early polling showed only modest support that has faced sustained advertising pressure. These dynamics reflect trader consensus that the coalition against the initiative, combined with procedural hurdles and fiscal concerns, makes enactment unlikely.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,685,829End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strong opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, multiple Democratic-aligned groups including the California Teachers Association and Medical Association, and heavily funded counter-campaigns by affected billionaires such as Sergey Brin have shaped trader expectations against passage.** The measure, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the worldwide net worth above $1 billion for roughly 200–250 California residents as of January 1, 2026, qualified for the November 3, 2026 ballot after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures. However, negotiations to withdraw it failed, and opponents placed competing initiatives on the ballot designed to nullify or restrict its effects if approved. Analyses from the Legislative Analyst’s Office and others highlight risks of reduced future income tax revenue due to high-net-worth departures, while early polling showed only modest support that has faced sustained advertising pressure. These dynamics reflect trader consensus that the coalition against the initiative, combined with procedural hurdles and fiscal concerns, makes enactment unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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