**California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on high earners (roughly the top 2%) first approved in 2012 via Proposition 30 and extended in 2016 by Proposition 55.** These rates, set to expire after 2030, currently generate $5–15 billion annually, with 89% allocated to K–12 schools and 11% to community colleges. The measure qualified for the ballot in June 2026 after education unions, including the California Teachers Association, collected well over the required signatures. Trader consensus at 73.5% for passage reflects the measure’s focus on stable education funding, historical voter approval of similar tax extensions, and organized union support, offset by opposition from taxpayer groups concerned about the state’s reliance on volatile high-income revenue. No major new developments have significantly shifted positioning since qualification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCalifornia High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
66% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
66% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on high earners (roughly the top 2%) first approved in 2012 via Proposition 30 and extended in 2016 by Proposition 55.** These rates, set to expire after 2030, currently generate $5–15 billion annually, with 89% allocated to K–12 schools and 11% to community colleges. The measure qualified for the ballot in June 2026 after education unions, including the California Teachers Association, collected well over the required signatures. Trader consensus at 73.5% for passage reflects the measure’s focus on stable education funding, historical voter approval of similar tax extensions, and organized union support, offset by opposition from taxpayer groups concerned about the state’s reliance on volatile high-income revenue. No major new developments have significantly shifted positioning since qualification.
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).**California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on high earners (roughly the top 2%) first approved in 2012 via Proposition 30 and extended in 2016 by Proposition 55.** These rates, set to expire after 2030, currently generate $5–15 billion annually, with 89% allocated to K–12 schools and 11% to community colleges. The measure qualified for the ballot in June 2026 after education unions, including the California Teachers Association, collected well over the required signatures. Trader consensus at 73.5% for passage reflects the measure’s focus on stable education funding, historical voter approval of similar tax extensions, and organized union support, offset by opposition from taxpayer groups concerned about the state’s reliance on volatile high-income revenue. No major new developments have significantly shifted positioning since qualification.
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on high earners (roughly the top 2%) first approved in 2012 via Proposition 30 and extended in 2016 by Proposition 55.** These rates, set to expire after 2030, currently generate $5–15 billion annually, with 89% allocated to K–12 schools and 11% to community colleges. The measure qualified for the ballot in June 2026 after education unions, including the California Teachers Association, collected well over the required signatures. Trader consensus at 73.5% for passage reflects the measure’s focus on stable education funding, historical voter approval of similar tax extensions, and organized union support, offset by opposition from taxpayer groups concerned about the state’s reliance on volatile high-income revenue. No major new developments have significantly shifted positioning since qualification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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