Skip to main content
icon for RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

RI-02 Republican Primary Winner

Polymarket
NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Stephen Skoly

$875 Vol.

71%

Victor Mellor

$1,064 Vol.

24%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Stephen Skoly holds the lead in the Rhode Island Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District ahead of the September 9 vote, supported by the state party’s June endorsement and top ballot position. Victor Mellor trails but has drawn attention through substantial self-funding and external support, including from Michael Flynn, while both candidates appeal to overlapping conservative priorities on border security, parental rights, and Second Amendment issues. An August poll showed Skoly at 29% to Mellor’s 22% with nearly half of likely Republican primary voters still undecided, reflecting limited name recognition and the race’s late-start dynamics. Early voting began August 20, and a scheduled September 4 debate offers one of the final opportunities for differentiation before ballots are cast.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,939
End Date
Sep 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Stephen Skoly holds the lead in the Rhode Island Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District ahead of the September 9 vote, supported by the state party’s June endorsement and top ballot position. Victor Mellor trails but has drawn attention through substantial self-funding and external support, including from Michael Flynn, while both candidates appeal to overlapping conservative priorities on border security, parental rights, and Second Amendment issues. An August poll showed Skoly at 29% to Mellor’s 22% with nearly half of likely Republican primary voters still undecided, reflecting limited name recognition and the race’s late-start dynamics. Early voting began August 20, and a scheduled September 4 debate offers one of the final opportunities for differentiation before ballots are cast.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$1,939
End Date
Sep 9, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stephen Skoly" at 71%, followed by "Victor Mellor" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Stephen Skoly" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Victor Mellor" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "RI-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.