Seth Magaziner, the Democratic incumbent in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, benefits from the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including his 2024 reelection. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote. The Republican primary between Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly has drawn limited attention and fundraising, leaving the eventual nominee without structural advantages in a district covering Cranston, Warwick, and parts of Providence. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of credible challenges. Late developments such as a primary surprise, national midterm swing, or incumbent-specific issue could still shift odds before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRI-02 House Election Winner
RI-02 House Election Winner
$27,368 Vol.
$27,368 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$27,368 Vol.
$27,368 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,299 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$10,069 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Seth Magaziner, the Democratic incumbent in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, benefits from the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including his 2024 reelection. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote. The Republican primary between Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly has drawn limited attention and fundraising, leaving the eventual nominee without structural advantages in a district covering Cranston, Warwick, and parts of Providence. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of credible challenges. Late developments such as a primary surprise, national midterm swing, or incumbent-specific issue could still shift odds before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$27,368End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Seth Magaziner, the Democratic incumbent in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, benefits from the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including his 2024 reelection. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote. The Republican primary between Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly has drawn limited attention and fundraising, leaving the eventual nominee without structural advantages in a district covering Cranston, Warwick, and parts of Providence. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of credible challenges. Late developments such as a primary surprise, national midterm swing, or incumbent-specific issue could still shift odds before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,368End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seth Magaziner, the Democratic incumbent in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, benefits from the seat’s D+4 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, including his 2024 reelection. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3, 2026, vote. The Republican primary between Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly has drawn limited attention and fundraising, leaving the eventual nominee without structural advantages in a district covering Cranston, Warwick, and parts of Providence. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of credible challenges. Late developments such as a primary surprise, national midterm swing, or incumbent-specific issue could still shift odds before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions