Maine’s 2nd Congressional District remains one of the House’s most competitive open seats ahead of the November 3 general election. With incumbent Jared Golden retiring, former Republican Governor Paul LePage secured his party’s nomination while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced through ranked-choice voting in the June primaries. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and recent presidential results give Republicans a structural edge, yet polls of the LePage-Dunlap matchup have stayed within the margin of error, reflecting the seat’s swing character and strong candidate recruitment by both parties. Traders assign the Republican nominee a modest lead consistent with historical base rates for similar districts, while upcoming fall campaigning, turnout patterns, and any late shifts in national conditions could still widen or close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
56%
Democratic Party
45%
NEW
NEW
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$5,595 Vol.
56%
Democratic Party
$2,152 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maine’s 2nd Congressional District remains one of the House’s most competitive open seats ahead of the November 3 general election. With incumbent Jared Golden retiring, former Republican Governor Paul LePage secured his party’s nomination while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced through ranked-choice voting in the June primaries. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and recent presidential results give Republicans a structural edge, yet polls of the LePage-Dunlap matchup have stayed within the margin of error, reflecting the seat’s swing character and strong candidate recruitment by both parties. Traders assign the Republican nominee a modest lead consistent with historical base rates for similar districts, while upcoming fall campaigning, turnout patterns, and any late shifts in national conditions could still widen or close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Volume
$7,747End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maine’s 2nd Congressional District remains one of the House’s most competitive open seats ahead of the November 3 general election. With incumbent Jared Golden retiring, former Republican Governor Paul LePage secured his party’s nomination while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced through ranked-choice voting in the June primaries. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and recent presidential results give Republicans a structural edge, yet polls of the LePage-Dunlap matchup have stayed within the margin of error, reflecting the seat’s swing character and strong candidate recruitment by both parties. Traders assign the Republican nominee a modest lead consistent with historical base rates for similar districts, while upcoming fall campaigning, turnout patterns, and any late shifts in national conditions could still widen or close the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,747End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 6:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Maine’s 2nd Congressional District remains one of the House’s most competitive open seats ahead of the November 3 general election. With incumbent Jared Golden retiring, former Republican Governor Paul LePage secured his party’s nomination while Democrat Matthew Dunlap advanced through ranked-choice voting in the June primaries. The district’s R+4 partisan lean and recent presidential results give Republicans a structural edge, yet polls of the LePage-Dunlap matchup have stayed within the margin of error, reflecting the seat’s swing character and strong candidate recruitment by both parties. Traders assign the Republican nominee a modest lead consistent with historical base rates for similar districts, while upcoming fall campaigning, turnout patterns, and any late shifts in national conditions could still widen or close the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions