**Several 2026 Senate contests in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa stand out as the most likely to finish within narrow margins, driven by a structurally competitive map, open seats, and shifting national conditions.** Republicans defend more seats overall, yet recent forecaster moves—including Cook Political Report shifting Texas and Iowa to toss-up status—reflect tighter polling and Democratic gains in fundraising and turnout during primaries. Key August developments, such as Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in the Michigan Democratic primary and fresh surveys showing sub-5-point spreads in multiple battlegrounds, have kept these races fluid. Economic sentiment, candidate consolidation after primaries, and the final stretch of campaigning through November will determine which contests produce the tightest results on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
31%
Nebraska
22%
Florida (Special)
22%
Alaska
22%
Maine
20%
Iowa
19%
Texas
18%
Michigan
18%
New Hampshire
16%
North Carolina
11%
New Mexico
10%
Virginia
9%
Georgia
9%
Minnesota
8%
Montana
7%
Colorado
4%
$1,342 Vol.
Ohio (Special)
$0 Vol.
31%
Nebraska
$23 Vol.
22%
Florida (Special)
$25 Vol.
22%
Alaska
$28 Vol.
22%
Maine
$0 Vol.
20%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
19%
Texas
$47 Vol.
18%
Michigan
$0 Vol.
18%
New Hampshire
$13 Vol.
16%
North Carolina
$0 Vol.
11%
New Mexico
$21 Vol.
10%
Virginia
$85 Vol.
9%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
9%
Minnesota
$42 Vol.
8%
Montana
$114 Vol.
7%
Colorado
$945 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Several 2026 Senate contests in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa stand out as the most likely to finish within narrow margins, driven by a structurally competitive map, open seats, and shifting national conditions.** Republicans defend more seats overall, yet recent forecaster moves—including Cook Political Report shifting Texas and Iowa to toss-up status—reflect tighter polling and Democratic gains in fundraising and turnout during primaries. Key August developments, such as Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in the Michigan Democratic primary and fresh surveys showing sub-5-point spreads in multiple battlegrounds, have kept these races fluid. Economic sentiment, candidate consolidation after primaries, and the final stretch of campaigning through November will determine which contests produce the tightest results on election night.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$1,342End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Several 2026 Senate contests in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa stand out as the most likely to finish within narrow margins, driven by a structurally competitive map, open seats, and shifting national conditions.** Republicans defend more seats overall, yet recent forecaster moves—including Cook Political Report shifting Texas and Iowa to toss-up status—reflect tighter polling and Democratic gains in fundraising and turnout during primaries. Key August developments, such as Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in the Michigan Democratic primary and fresh surveys showing sub-5-point spreads in multiple battlegrounds, have kept these races fluid. Economic sentiment, candidate consolidation after primaries, and the final stretch of campaigning through November will determine which contests produce the tightest results on election night.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,342End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Several 2026 Senate contests in states such as Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa stand out as the most likely to finish within narrow margins, driven by a structurally competitive map, open seats, and shifting national conditions.** Republicans defend more seats overall, yet recent forecaster moves—including Cook Political Report shifting Texas and Iowa to toss-up status—reflect tighter polling and Democratic gains in fundraising and turnout during primaries. Key August developments, such as Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in the Michigan Democratic primary and fresh surveys showing sub-5-point spreads in multiple battlegrounds, have kept these races fluid. Economic sentiment, candidate consolidation after primaries, and the final stretch of campaigning through November will determine which contests produce the tightest results on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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