**Multiple open-seat gubernatorial contests in battleground and purple states drive the fragmented trader consensus on the closest 2026 race.** Ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, and Ohio as toss-ups or leans, while Nevada and Kansas sit near the competitive edge due to term-limited incumbents and shifting voter coalitions. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Ohio (Acton vs. Ramaswamy) and Wisconsin, with primaries and candidate recruitment still shaping fields in several states. The distribution of probability across Texas, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Georgia reflects comparable structural factors—partisan leans near even, turnout sensitivity, and limited historical blowout risk—rather than any single dominant frontrunner. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in suburbs or rural areas, or unexpected scandals could consolidate the market as Election Day approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlorida 16.8%
Texas 14.8%
Ohio 13.6%
Wisconsin 12.0%
$13,917 Vol.
$13,917 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Florida
13%
Texas
15%
Ohio
14%
Wisconsin
12%
Iowa
12%
Georgia
12%
Nevada
10%
Kansas
6%
Alaska
5%
New Hampshire
5%
Colorado
4%
Vermont
4%
New Mexico
3%
Arizona
2%
Minnesota
2%
Michigan
1%
Maine
1%
Oregon
1%
Florida 16.8%
Texas 14.8%
Ohio 13.6%
Wisconsin 12.0%
$13,917 Vol.
$13,917 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Florida
$234 Vol.
13%
Texas
$1,689 Vol.
15%
Ohio
$748 Vol.
14%
Wisconsin
$1,167 Vol.
12%
Iowa
$1,485 Vol.
12%
Georgia
$424 Vol.
12%
Nevada
$2,878 Vol.
10%
Kansas
$2,325 Vol.
6%
Alaska
$236 Vol.
5%
New Hampshire
$534 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$248 Vol.
4%
Vermont
$181 Vol.
4%
New Mexico
$221 Vol.
3%
Arizona
$274 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$249 Vol.
2%
Michigan
$334 Vol.
1%
Maine
$360 Vol.
1%
Oregon
$331 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple open-seat gubernatorial contests in battleground and purple states drive the fragmented trader consensus on the closest 2026 race.** Ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, and Ohio as toss-ups or leans, while Nevada and Kansas sit near the competitive edge due to term-limited incumbents and shifting voter coalitions. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Ohio (Acton vs. Ramaswamy) and Wisconsin, with primaries and candidate recruitment still shaping fields in several states. The distribution of probability across Texas, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Georgia reflects comparable structural factors—partisan leans near even, turnout sensitivity, and limited historical blowout risk—rather than any single dominant frontrunner. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in suburbs or rural areas, or unexpected scandals could consolidate the market as Election Day approaches.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$13,917End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple open-seat gubernatorial contests in battleground and purple states drive the fragmented trader consensus on the closest 2026 race.** Ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, and Ohio as toss-ups or leans, while Nevada and Kansas sit near the competitive edge due to term-limited incumbents and shifting voter coalitions. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Ohio (Acton vs. Ramaswamy) and Wisconsin, with primaries and candidate recruitment still shaping fields in several states. The distribution of probability across Texas, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Georgia reflects comparable structural factors—partisan leans near even, turnout sensitivity, and limited historical blowout risk—rather than any single dominant frontrunner. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in suburbs or rural areas, or unexpected scandals could consolidate the market as Election Day approaches.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,917End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Multiple open-seat gubernatorial contests in battleground and purple states drive the fragmented trader consensus on the closest 2026 race.** Ratings from Cook, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections classify Georgia, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, and Ohio as toss-ups or leans, while Nevada and Kansas sit near the competitive edge due to term-limited incumbents and shifting voter coalitions. Recent polling shows narrow margins in Ohio (Acton vs. Ramaswamy) and Wisconsin, with primaries and candidate recruitment still shaping fields in several states. The distribution of probability across Texas, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Georgia reflects comparable structural factors—partisan leans near even, turnout sensitivity, and limited historical blowout risk—rather than any single dominant frontrunner. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns in suburbs or rural areas, or unexpected scandals could consolidate the market as Election Day approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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