Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings place several 2026 Senate contests in toss-up territory, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio special, and Maine showing the narrowest margins of 1–4 points amid open seats, retiring incumbents, and shifting national conditions. Primary outcomes and August rating upgrades by groups including Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have elevated these battlegrounds by highlighting candidate matchups and state partisan leans. Trader consensus on the closest race reflects this balance, where small swings in turnout, late-cycle polling shifts, or campaign events could widen gaps before November 3. Additional surveys, debates, or external developments remain key variables that may separate leaders in these competitive races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 15%
Alaska 15%
Iowa 11.3%
Michigan 10.7%
$34,214 Vol.
$34,214 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
15%
Alaska
15%
Iowa
11%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Maine
9%
Nebraska
7%
Montana
6%
Colorado
5%
Florida (Special)
4%
Virginia
4%
New Mexico
3%
Georgia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 15%
Alaska 15%
Iowa 11.3%
Michigan 10.7%
$34,214 Vol.
$34,214 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,739 Vol.
15%
Alaska
$6,032 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$2,909 Vol.
11%
Michigan
$2,833 Vol.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$8,805 Vol.
10%
Maine
$1,305 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$293 Vol.
7%
Montana
$671 Vol.
6%
Colorado
$716 Vol.
5%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
4%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$490 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings place several 2026 Senate contests in toss-up territory, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio special, and Maine showing the narrowest margins of 1–4 points amid open seats, retiring incumbents, and shifting national conditions. Primary outcomes and August rating upgrades by groups including Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have elevated these battlegrounds by highlighting candidate matchups and state partisan leans. Trader consensus on the closest race reflects this balance, where small swings in turnout, late-cycle polling shifts, or campaign events could widen gaps before November 3. Additional surveys, debates, or external developments remain key variables that may separate leaders in these competitive races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$34,214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings place several 2026 Senate contests in toss-up territory, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio special, and Maine showing the narrowest margins of 1–4 points amid open seats, retiring incumbents, and shifting national conditions. Primary outcomes and August rating upgrades by groups including Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have elevated these battlegrounds by highlighting candidate matchups and state partisan leans. Trader consensus on the closest race reflects this balance, where small swings in turnout, late-cycle polling shifts, or campaign events could widen gaps before November 3. Additional surveys, debates, or external developments remain key variables that may separate leaders in these competitive races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,214End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings place several 2026 Senate contests in toss-up territory, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio special, and Maine showing the narrowest margins of 1–4 points amid open seats, retiring incumbents, and shifting national conditions. Primary outcomes and August rating upgrades by groups including Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have elevated these battlegrounds by highlighting candidate matchups and state partisan leans. Trader consensus on the closest race reflects this balance, where small swings in turnout, late-cycle polling shifts, or campaign events could widen gaps before November 3. Additional surveys, debates, or external developments remain key variables that may separate leaders in these competitive races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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