**Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a clear edge over Democrat Carmela Conroy in the November 3, 2026, general election for Washington’s 5th congressional district.** The August 4 top-two primary produced the expected rematch, with Baumgartner advancing comfortably at roughly 48% and Conroy in second at around 19-21%, ahead of independent Nate Powell. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its partisan voting index and Baumgartner’s 21-point 2024 victory in the open-seat race. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, and Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising lead reinforces the positioning. Traders appear to view the race as low-risk for the incumbent absent major late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWA-05 House Election Winner
WA-05 House Election Winner
$49,268 Vol.
$49,268 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
76%
Democratic Party
24%
$49,268 Vol.
$49,268 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,199 Vol.
76%
Democratic Party
$30,069 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a clear edge over Democrat Carmela Conroy in the November 3, 2026, general election for Washington’s 5th congressional district.**
The August 4 top-two primary produced the expected rematch, with Baumgartner advancing comfortably at roughly 48% and Conroy in second at around 19-21%, ahead of independent Nate Powell. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its partisan voting index and Baumgartner’s 21-point 2024 victory in the open-seat race. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, and Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising lead reinforces the positioning. Traders appear to view the race as low-risk for the incumbent absent major late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$49,268End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a clear edge over Democrat Carmela Conroy in the November 3, 2026, general election for Washington’s 5th congressional district.**
The August 4 top-two primary produced the expected rematch, with Baumgartner advancing comfortably at roughly 48% and Conroy in second at around 19-21%, ahead of independent Nate Powell. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its partisan voting index and Baumgartner’s 21-point 2024 victory in the open-seat race. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, and Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising lead reinforces the positioning. Traders appear to view the race as low-risk for the incumbent absent major late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,268End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican Michael Baumgartner holds a clear edge over Democrat Carmela Conroy in the November 3, 2026, general election for Washington’s 5th congressional district.** The August 4 top-two primary produced the expected rematch, with Baumgartner advancing comfortably at roughly 48% and Conroy in second at around 19-21%, ahead of independent Nate Powell. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with its partisan voting index and Baumgartner’s 21-point 2024 victory in the open-seat race. The district’s eastern Washington base, including Spokane, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, and Baumgartner’s substantial fundraising lead reinforces the positioning. Traders appear to view the race as low-risk for the incumbent absent major late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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