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CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)

icon for CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)

CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)

Polymarket
NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Scott Wiener

$2,718 Vol.

62%

Connie Chan

$2,470 Vol.

39%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads the market at 61.5% as the Democratic nominee in California's 11th Congressional District general election on November 3, following his 40.7% finish in the June primary that advanced him and Connie Chan. Wiener's advantages include a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million raised with over $1 million cash on hand, endorsements from the California Democratic Party and multiple House members, and a record emphasizing housing production legislation. Recent developments show the race tightening, with Chan gaining in polls after securing Nancy Pelosi's endorsement and labor union support; she has also reduced Board of Supervisors committee work to focus full-time on campaigning. Differences over zoning reforms and development policies remain central to voter assessments of the two candidates.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,187
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Scott Wiener leads the market at 61.5% as the Democratic nominee in California's 11th Congressional District general election on November 3, following his 40.7% finish in the June primary that advanced him and Connie Chan. Wiener's advantages include a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million raised with over $1 million cash on hand, endorsements from the California Democratic Party and multiple House members, and a record emphasizing housing production legislation. Recent developments show the race tightening, with Chan gaining in polls after securing Nancy Pelosi's endorsement and labor union support; she has also reduced Board of Supervisors committee work to focus full-time on campaigning. Differences over zoning reforms and development policies remain central to voter assessments of the two candidates.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,187
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Scott Wiener" at 62%, followed by "Connie Chan" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 62¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" is "Scott Wiener" at 62%, meaning the market assigns a 62% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Connie Chan" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.