The heavily Democratic character of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco and carrying a D+36 partisan voter index, underpins the 98% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2 top-two primary produced a Democrat-only runoff between state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan after Republicans received under 6% combined. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s history of 70-80% Democratic margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or an unforeseen late development that disrupts the general-election contest between the two Democratic nominees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
98%
Republican Party
3%
$21,763 Vol.
$21,763 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,980 Vol.
98%
Republican Party
$6,783 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic character of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco and carrying a D+36 partisan voter index, underpins the 98% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2 top-two primary produced a Democrat-only runoff between state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan after Republicans received under 6% combined. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s history of 70-80% Democratic margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or an unforeseen late development that disrupts the general-election contest between the two Democratic nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$21,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic character of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco and carrying a D+36 partisan voter index, underpins the 98% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2 top-two primary produced a Democrat-only runoff between state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan after Republicans received under 6% combined. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s history of 70-80% Democratic margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or an unforeseen late development that disrupts the general-election contest between the two Democratic nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,763End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic character of California’s 11th congressional district, centered in San Francisco and carrying a D+36 partisan voter index, underpins the 98% implied probability for a Democratic victory in the November 3, 2026 general election. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement opened the seat, but the June 2 top-two primary produced a Democrat-only runoff between state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan after Republicans received under 6% combined. Major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s history of 70-80% Democratic margins. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal of long-standing voting patterns or an unforeseen late development that disrupts the general-election contest between the two Democratic nominees.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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