Virginia's 3rd congressional district features a long-standing Democratic advantage driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and concentration of urban and suburban voters in the Hampton Roads region. Incumbent Representative Bobby Scott advanced unopposed through the August 4, 2026 primary after winning 70 percent in the prior cycle, while the Republican nominee has raised minimal funds and lacks visibility or competitive polling. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of developments suggesting an upset. A major scandal, incumbent health event, or extraordinary national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant barriers in this district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-03 House Election Winner
VA-03 House Election Winner
$62,743 Vol.
$62,743 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
2%
$62,743 Vol.
$62,743 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,556 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$41,187 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 3rd congressional district features a long-standing Democratic advantage driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and concentration of urban and suburban voters in the Hampton Roads region. Incumbent Representative Bobby Scott advanced unopposed through the August 4, 2026 primary after winning 70 percent in the prior cycle, while the Republican nominee has raised minimal funds and lacks visibility or competitive polling. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of developments suggesting an upset. A major scandal, incumbent health event, or extraordinary national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant barriers in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$62,743End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Virginia's 3rd congressional district features a long-standing Democratic advantage driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and concentration of urban and suburban voters in the Hampton Roads region. Incumbent Representative Bobby Scott advanced unopposed through the August 4, 2026 primary after winning 70 percent in the prior cycle, while the Republican nominee has raised minimal funds and lacks visibility or competitive polling. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of developments suggesting an upset. A major scandal, incumbent health event, or extraordinary national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant barriers in this district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$62,743End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Virginia's 3rd congressional district features a long-standing Democratic advantage driven by its D+18 partisan voting index and concentration of urban and suburban voters in the Hampton Roads region. Incumbent Representative Bobby Scott advanced unopposed through the August 4, 2026 primary after winning 70 percent in the prior cycle, while the Republican nominee has raised minimal funds and lacks visibility or competitive polling. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November general election. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors and the absence of developments suggesting an upset. A major scandal, incumbent health event, or extraordinary national political shift could still alter the outcome, though such scenarios face significant barriers in this district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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