Troy Jackson's rapid consolidation of the Democratic nomination after Graham Platner's July withdrawal has positioned him as the clear favorite in trader assessments for Maine's Senate seat, reflecting the state's recent Democratic tilt and voter dissatisfaction with the long-serving incumbent. Jackson, the former state Senate president, secured over 90 percent of delegates at the July 25 convention and has since emphasized direct contrasts with Susan Collins on issues like term limits and alignment with national Republican priorities, while raising millions through ActBlue. Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the November 3 contest a toss-up or tilt Republican based on polling averages near 47 percent for each candidate, though Jackson holds a narrow edge in some recent surveys. Collins benefits from her incumbency, committee leadership, and early advertising advantage, yet faces structural challenges in a state carried by Democrats in the prior presidential election. Recent developments, including write-in candidacies triggering ranked-choice voting and Republican efforts to highlight policy differences, continue to shape assessments of the narrow margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGraham Platner officially drops out of Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 64%10%
Platner formally filed his withdrawal, allowing the Maine Democratic Party to select a new nominee before the July 27 deadline, which caused a rebound in the Democrat market price as uncertainty began to resolve.
Maine Democratic Party announces fair and inclusive process to select new Senate nominee
The Maine Democratic Party launched a transparent and inclusive process to select a new nominee by July 27, involving a nominating convention with delegates, aiming to unify the party and prepare for the general election against Collins.
Graham Platner Officially Files Letter Withdrawing Candidacy
Democrat rises to 64%3%
Platner officially filed his withdrawal paperwork, meeting the state deadline and allowing the Maine Democratic Party to proceed with a special nominating convention.
Graham Platner officially files withdrawal from Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 66%12%
Platner formally withdrew his candidacy, confirming the need for Democrats to finalize a replacement nominee, maintaining uncertainty in the race and affecting market pricing.
Graham Platner officially files to withdraw from Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 62%8%
Platner formally withdrew his candidacy, allowing the Maine Democratic Party to begin the process of selecting a replacement nominee before the July 27 deadline, maintaining uncertainty in the race.
Maine Democrats begin nominating convention to select Platner’s replacement
Democrat jumps to 62%8%
Following Platner’s withdrawal, Maine Democrats initiated a nominating convention process to select a new Senate candidate by July 27, creating a compressed timeline and impacting market dynamics.
Democrats begin process to select new Maine Senate nominee after Platner withdrawal
Democrat jumps to 54%6%
The Maine Democratic Party announced a nominating convention to select a new Senate nominee by July 27, with several candidates expressing interest, adding volatility and uncertainty to the market.
Maine Democrats begin search for Platner replacement nominee
With Platner's withdrawal, the Maine Democratic Party announced a nominating convention to select a new candidate by July 27, with several Democrats expressing interest in the nomination.
Shenna Bellows announces bid to replace Platner as Democratic nominee
Democrat jumps to 62%9%
One day after Platner's withdrawal, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows announced her candidacy to replace him as the Democratic nominee, signaling the start of a competitive selection process within the party.
Democrats scramble to replace Platner in Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 57%9%
After Platner's withdrawal, multiple Democrats including former state Senate president Troy Jackson and public health official Nirav Shah announced their candidacies to replace him. The party scheduled a nominating convention for July 25 to select the new nominee.
Maine Democrats begin process to select new Senate nominee after Platner withdrawal
Democrat rises to 66%3%
Following Platner's withdrawal, the Maine Democratic Party announced a nominating convention to select a new Senate candidate by July 27. Several candidates, including former state Senate president Troy Jackson and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, declared their candidacies, creating uncertainty in the market about the Democratic nominee's strength.
Democrats begin scramble to replace Platner as Senate nominee
Democrat surges to 64%16%
With Platner's withdrawal, multiple Democrats announced their intention to seek the nomination in a party-controlled nominating convention. This created uncertainty in the market as the replacement candidate's strength and electability were unknown.
Democrats begin nominating process to replace Platner as Senate candidate
The Maine Democratic Party initiated a special nominating convention to select a new Senate nominee by July 27, adding uncertainty and competition among several candidates to replace Platner.
Multiple Democrats announce bids to replace Graham Platner in Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 60%6%
Following Platner's withdrawal, several Democrats including Troy Jackson, Nirav Shah, and Shenna Bellows announced their candidacies to replace him as the Democratic nominee. This crowded field and ongoing nomination process added uncertainty to the race, affecting market prices for the Democratic outcome.
Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows announces bid to replace Platner
Shenna Bellows announced her candidacy to replace Platner as the Democratic nominee, marking the beginning of a competitive selection process within the Maine Democratic Party.
Maine Democrats Scramble to Field Replacement Candidates After Platner's Exit
Democrat surges to 64%16%
Following Platner's withdrawal, at least seven Democrats stepped forward to vie for the nomination at an upcoming state convention, stabilizing Democratic market odds.
Graham Platner announces suspension of Maine Senate campaign
Democrat drops to 48%8%
Following the allegations and loss of support, Platner suspended his campaign, creating a scramble for Democrats to find a replacement nominee before the July 27 deadline, increasing uncertainty in the race.
Graham Platner Suspends Senate Campaign Following Sexual Assault Allegations
Democrat surges to 64%16%
Under intense pressure from national and local party leaders, Graham Platner announced the suspension of his campaign, leaving Democrats temporarily without a nominee.
Graham Platner announces withdrawal from Maine Senate race
Democrat drops to 54%5%
Following the sexual assault allegation and loss of support, Platner announced his withdrawal from the race, creating uncertainty for Democrats and causing a sharp drop in Democratic market prices.
Graham Platner delays decision on Senate campaign amid pressure
Democrat dips to 48%1%
Platner continued to hold off on announcing whether he would end his campaign despite mounting calls to quit. The Democratic Party prepared for a possible replacement, with key figures publicly distancing themselves from Platner.
Graham Platner announces he will withdraw from Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 63%8%
Platner officially announced his withdrawal from the Senate race on July 8, 2026, after facing mounting pressure from his party and the public due to sexual assault allegations. This event caused a significant market reaction as Democrats scrambled to find a replacement nominee.
Maine Democratic Party votes to hold nominating convention to replace Platner
Democrat rises to 54%1%
In response to Platner's withdrawal, the Maine Democratic Party's state committee voted to hold a nominating convention with 601 delegates to select a new Senate nominee by July 27, 2026. This unprecedented process reflects the urgency and complexity of replacing a candidate so close to the general election, contributing to market volatility.
Graham Platner suspends and officially withdraws from Maine Senate race
Democrat drops to 48%5%
Following the sexual assault allegation and dwindling support, Platner announced suspension of his campaign and formally withdrew from the race, allowing Democrats to select a new nominee before the July 27 deadline.
Graham Platner Suspends Campaign Operations in Maine Senate Race
Republican drops to 38%9%
Under intense pressure from local and national Democratic leaders, Graham Platner announced the suspension of his campaign, leaving Democrats temporarily without a nominee.
Graham Platner withdraws from Maine Senate race amid sexual assault allegations
Democrat plunges to 48%16%
Following a sexual assault allegation and loss of support from key Democratic backers, Graham Platner officially suspended his campaign and withdrew from the race, forcing the Maine Democratic Party to find a replacement nominee before the July 27 deadline.
Graham Platner officially withdraws from Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 66%9%
Following the allegations and party pressure, Platner formally withdrew from the race, creating uncertainty about the Democratic nominee and causing market volatility.
Democrats consider replacing Graham Platner amid scandal
Democrat rises to 49%1%
With Platner weighing his future after the sexual assault allegation, Maine Democrats began exploring replacement candidates including Troy Jackson and Shenna Bellows. The party faced a tight deadline to select a new nominee, adding uncertainty to the race.
Maine Democratic leaders urge Platner to withdraw from Senate race
Democrat jumps to 53%5%
Following the allegations, nearly all Maine Democratic Party leaders publicly called for Platner to exit the race, increasing uncertainty about the Democratic nomination and weakening the party's position against Collins.
Sexual assault allegations emerge against Graham Platner
Democrat plunges to 55%21%
Allegations of sexual assault against Platner surfaced, leading to widespread criticism and withdrawal of endorsements, severely damaging his campaign and causing a sharp drop in his market price.
Maine Democratic Party withdraws endorsements from Graham Platner amid sexual assault allegations
Democrat drops to 52%10%
Following new sexual assault allegations against Platner, the Maine Democratic Party leadership publicly withdrew their endorsements, signaling a major blow to his campaign and causing a sharp drop in his market support.
Sexual assault allegations against Graham Platner surface
Democrat drops to 57%7%
Serious sexual assault allegations against Platner emerged publicly, leading to widespread calls within the Democratic Party for him to withdraw, severely damaging his campaign and Democratic market support.
Democrats Pull Endorsements After Graham Platner Faces Sexual Assault Allegation
Democrat drops to 48%14%
Following a bombshell report detailing a sexual assault allegation from 2021, prominent Democrats and organizations began rescinding their endorsements of Platner.
Graham Platner officially withdraws from Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 64%10%
Following the allegations and loss of endorsements, Platner officially dropped out on July 6, 2026, leading to further uncertainty for Democrats and a peak in Republican market price.
Graham Platner Accused of Sexual Assault by Former Girlfriend
Democrat drops to 48%14%
A bombshell Politico report detailing a sexual assault allegation against Graham Platner led to immediate calls for his withdrawal and a collapse in his market odds.
Sexual assault allegation against Graham Platner surfaces
Democrat drops to 60%10%
An allegation of sexual assault against Platner emerged, leading to significant backlash and loss of support from Democratic leaders and the public, severely damaging his campaign prospects.
Sexual assault allegation emerges against Graham Platner
Democrat drops to 53%10%
A new sexual assault allegation against Platner surfaced, severely damaging his campaign and leading to loss of endorsements and support from Democratic leaders, causing a sharp decline in his standing.
Democrats begin pulling endorsements from Graham Platner amid sexual assault allegations
Democrat drops to 56%8%
Following a report of a sexual assault allegation against Graham Platner, major Democratic figures and organizations began withdrawing their endorsements and support. This caused a sharp decline in market confidence for the Democratic candidate, reflected in a significant price drop.
Top Democrats rescind endorsements and call on Platner to end Maine Senate campaign
Following the sexual assault allegation, major Democratic figures and organizations, including the Maine Democratic Party and the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, rescinded their endorsements of Platner and urged him to drop out to preserve the party's chances of winning the seat.
Graham Platner states he is considering 'best path forward' after sexual assault allegation
Platner denied the sexual assault allegation but said he was taking time to reflect on his political future and the best path forward for his campaign, creating uncertainty about his continued candidacy and impacting the race dynamics.
Maine Democratic Party leadership calls for Platner to drop out amid sexual assault allegations
Democrat jumps to 65%9%
Following credible sexual assault allegations against Platner, Maine Democratic Party leaders publicly urged him to withdraw from the race, signaling a major crisis for the Democratic campaign and causing market uncertainty about the Democratic nominee's future.
Maine Democratic Party begins pulling endorsements from Graham Platner
Democrat plunges to 48%16%
Following new sexual assault allegations against Platner, the Maine Democratic Party leadership started withdrawing endorsements, severely damaging his campaign and causing a sharp drop in Democratic market support.
Democrats withdraw endorsements from Platner amid sexual assault allegations
Democrat drops to 54%8%
Following the sexual assault allegations, several Democratic officials rescinded their endorsements of Platner, increasing uncertainty about his candidacy and causing a drop in the Democrat's market probability.
New sexual assault allegation against Graham Platner surfaces during general election campaign
Democrat drops to 48%11%
Additional sexual assault allegations against Platner emerged in early July, intensifying controversies around the Democratic nominee and causing further volatility and a dip in market confidence for the Democrat.
Fox News Poll Shows Susan Collins Narrowly Leading Graham Platner
Republican jumps to 47%7%
A Fox News poll showed Susan Collins with a narrow 3-point lead over Graham Platner, highlighting the tight nature of the race.
Fox News poll shows Collins leads Platner by 3 points in Maine Senate race
Republican dips to 74%4%
A Fox News poll found incumbent Susan Collins leading Graham Platner 50% to 47%, with Platner leading among the most motivated voters. The poll highlighted concerns about both candidates, with voters questioning Platner's judgment and Collins' long tenure.
Polls show tight Maine Senate race with concerns about both candidates
Polls in late June indicated a competitive race with Collins narrowly leading but Platner ahead among key voter groups, reflecting a volatile market with fluctuating prices for both candidates.
Poll shows Susan Collins narrowly leading Graham Platner in Maine Senate race
Republican jumps to 37%9%
A Fox News poll released in late June showed Republican Susan Collins with a narrow 3-point lead over Democrat Graham Platner among registered voters, indicating a tightening race and increased competitiveness. This likely contributed to a slight market shift favoring the Republican candidate.
Poll shows Platner narrowly leading Collins in Maine Senate race despite controversies
Democrat drops to 69%5%
A New York Times/Siena University poll showed Platner leading Collins 49%-47% among likely voters, indicating a tight race but with Platner maintaining a slight edge despite negative media coverage.
New York Times/Siena poll shows Platner narrowly leading Collins in Maine Senate race
A poll conducted June 19-26 showed Platner leading Collins 49% to 47% among likely voters, indicating a tight race with Platner holding a slight edge despite controversies. The poll highlighted Platner's lead among female voters and Collins' lead on character questions.
Poll shows Susan Collins narrowly leading Graham Platner in Maine Senate race
A Fox News poll released in late June showed Collins with a 3-point lead over Platner, indicating a tight race and causing market prices to reflect increased competitiveness.
Poll shows tight race between Platner and Collins in Maine Senate contest
Democrat plunges to 56%20%
A New York Times/Press Herald/Siena poll showed Platner and Collins in a near tie, reflecting a competitive general election race and some voter concerns about Platner's background.
Poll shows Platner with slight edge over Collins in tight Maine Senate race
Democrat drops to 23%5%
A New York Times poll found Platner slightly ahead of Collins, indicating a competitive race with fluctuating voter preferences. This contributed to market volatility between the Democratic and Republican outcomes.
Poll shows Platner narrowly leads Collins despite controversies
A New York Times/Siena University poll found Platner leading Collins 49%-47% among likely voters, despite negative media coverage about Platner's past conduct including a controversial tattoo and sexual text messages. The race was considered a statistical dead heat, reflecting voter ambivalence.
New poll shows Platner narrowly leads Collins despite controversies
Democrat dips to 74%4%
A New York Times/Siena University poll released on June 29 showed Platner leading Collins 49%-47% among likely voters despite recent allegations against Platner. This poll indicated a competitive race and likely contributed to market fluctuations reflecting uncertainty about the Democratic candidate's viability.
Fox News poll shows Susan Collins leading Graham Platner in Maine Senate race
Republican jumps to 37%11%
A Fox News poll conducted June 23-27 showed Collins leading Platner 50% to 47%, indicating a competitive race but a slight advantage for the Republican incumbent. This poll likely contributed to a stabilization and slight decline in the Democrat's market price and a corresponding rise for the Republican.
Fox News poll shows Susan Collins leads Graham Platner by 3 points in Maine Senate race
Republican plunges to 55%21%
A Fox News poll showed Collins narrowly leading Platner by 3 points, reflecting a competitive race and causing market adjustments with the Democrat's price dipping and Republican's rising.
Fox News poll shows Susan Collins leading Graham Platner by 3 points in Maine Senate race
Republican jumps to 35%7%
A Fox News poll indicated a narrow lead for Republican Susan Collins over Democrat Graham Platner, reflecting a competitive race and contributing to increased market confidence in the Republican candidate.
Fox News poll shows Collins leads Platner by 3 points in tight Maine Senate race
Republican dips to 27%3%
A Fox News poll conducted June 23-27 showed incumbent Republican Susan Collins leading Democrat Graham Platner by 3 points, reflecting a competitive race with concerns about both candidates. This poll likely influenced market prices by reinforcing Collins' slight edge amid Democratic enthusiasm.
Polls show tight Senate race between Susan Collins and Graham Platner
Democrat surges to 67%17%
Polling data released in mid-June indicated a close contest between Collins and Platner, with Platner holding a slight edge in some surveys, stabilizing Democratic market support after earlier declines.
Graham Platner denies sexual assault allegations amid campaign controversy
Democrat plunges to 50%19%
Following his primary win, Platner faced new sexual assault allegations which he denied, injecting uncertainty and volatility into the race and causing a significant drop in Democratic market support.
Sexual assault allegation against Graham Platner emerges
Democrat drops to 64%14%
An allegation of sexual assault against Platner surfaced shortly after the primary, causing significant controversy and leading to some Democratic endorsements being withdrawn. This negatively impacted the Democrat's market probability.
Sexual assault allegations against Graham Platner emerge
Democrat drops to 65%13%
Shortly after winning the primary, Platner faced serious sexual assault allegations, which he denied. This controversy caused a sharp drop in the Democrat's market price and increased uncertainty about the general election outcome.
Democratic and Republican primaries held; Platner and Collins win nominations
On June 9, the ranked-choice Democratic primary and the uncontested Republican primary took place. Graham Platner won the Democratic nomination decisively, while Susan Collins ran unopposed for the Republican nomination, setting up the general election contest.
Graham Platner wins Democratic Senate primary in Maine
Democrat dips to 73%3%
Platner secured the Democratic nomination with over 70% support, setting up a general election contest against incumbent Republican Susan Collins. This solidified the two main candidates and influenced market pricing accordingly.
Graham Platner wins Maine Democratic Senate primary
Democrat surges to 68%16%
Platner won the Democratic primary decisively, setting up a high-stakes general election against incumbent Susan Collins, which shifted market expectations toward the Democrat.
Graham Platner wins Democratic primary for Maine U.S. Senate seat
Democrat jumps to 79%8%
Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran, won the Democratic primary with over 70% of the vote, setting up a general election contest against incumbent Republican Susan Collins. This victory initially boosted the Democrat's market price and solidified his position as the nominee.
Graham Platner denies allegations of past violent behavior
Democrat drops to 67%6%
Platner publicly denied reports of violent behavior in a previous relationship, attempting to mitigate damage to his campaign. Despite the denial, these allegations began to raise doubts among voters and impacted his polling.
UMass Lowell Poll Shows Graham Platner Holding Slight Lead Over Susan Collins
Democrat drops to 62%9%
A new poll showed Democratic upstart Graham Platner holding a slight lead over Republican incumbent Susan Collins, reinforcing Democratic confidence.
Poll shows Platner holds slight lead over Collins in general election
Democrat rises to 78%2%
A poll conducted from May 13 to May 26 showed Democratic candidate Graham Platner holding a slight lead over Republican incumbent Susan Collins in the general election matchup, highlighting the competitiveness of the race and boosting Democratic market prices.
Poll shows Graham Platner leads Susan Collins in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 78%4%
A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll showed Graham Platner holding a slight lead over incumbent Republican Susan Collins in a general election matchup, boosting market confidence in the Democratic candidate.
Republican Senator Susan Collins praised by GOP figures as a strong fit for Maine
Republican jumps to 28%5%
Senator Susan Collins received positive remarks from Republican leaders, reinforcing her image as a moderate and viable candidate in a blue-leaning state, which helped maintain her market support.
JD Vance praises Senator Susan Collins as a good fit for Maine
Republican jumps to 28%6%
JD Vance publicly called Senator Susan Collins 'a good fit for Maine' despite his frustrations with her, reinforcing her position as a strong Republican incumbent and likely boosting her support in the market.
Janet Mills suspends Senate campaign but remains on Democratic primary ballot
Maine Governor Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign in late April but stayed on the ballot, creating uncertainty in the Democratic primary and impacting early market confidence in the Democratic nominee.
Maine Governor Janet Mills Drops Out of U.S. Senate Primary
Democrat dips to 74%3%
Governor Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign, clearing the path for progressive upstart Graham Platner to secure the Democratic nomination.
Democratic Governor Janet Mills suspends Senate campaign, boosting Platner's chances
Democrat rises to 78%1%
Janet Mills ended her campaign for the Democratic Senate nomination, leaving Graham Platner as the leading Democratic candidate. This consolidation of the Democratic primary field increased Platner's prospects and influenced market confidence in the Democratic outcome.
Democratic Senate candidate faces controversy over disturbing social media posts
Democrat rises to 78%2%
A Democratic Senate candidate faced a firestorm over past disturbing social media posts, leading to a press conference to address the issue. This controversy may have affected voter perceptions and market confidence in the Democratic candidate's prospects.
Senator Elizabeth Warren endorses Graham Platner in Maine Democratic primary
Democrat rises to 76%2%
Progressive Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly endorsed Graham Platner, boosting his campaign against establishment-backed Janet Mills. This endorsement energized progressive voters and increased confidence in Platner's chances, reflected in market gains for the Democrat outcome.
Maine Senate Democratic primary intensifies with Mills and Platner vying for female voters
Democrat dips to 75%2%
As the Democratic primary heated up, both Janet Mills and Graham Platner focused on winning female voters, a key demographic in Maine. This contest highlighted the competitive nature of the primary and the importance of voter demographics in shaping the general election outlook.
New York Times highlights contentious Maine Senate race and generational tensions
The New York Times reported on the intense and potentially ugly Democratic primary contest between Mills and Platner, emphasizing Platner's appeal as a generational change candidate and the risks Mills highlighted about Platner's past comments. This coverage underscored the ongoing uncertainty but maintained Democratic strength in the market.
Platner raises $4 million, but Collins retains cash advantage
Democrat dips to 74%1%
Fundraising reports showed Graham Platner raised $4 million in the first quarter, outpacing Mills, but incumbent Senator Susan Collins maintained a cash advantage. This financial dynamic influenced market perceptions of the candidates' viability, supporting confidence in the Democratic primary frontrunner while acknowledging Collins' resources.
Senator Susan Collins retains financial advantage despite Democratic fundraising gains
Democrat rises to 78%2%
As of mid-April, Senator Collins maintained a cash advantage over her Democratic challengers, including Platner and Mills, which could influence the general election dynamics. However, the strong polling leads for Democrats kept market confidence tilted towards the Democratic outcome.
Republicans hold huge spending advantage in Maine Senate race
Republican dips to 23%4%
Republican groups significantly increased ad spending in April, outspending Democrats by more than 2-to-1, signaling strong GOP efforts to defend Collins' seat. Despite this, polling and market prices continued to favor the Democratic candidate, reflecting skepticism about Collins' chances.
Emerson College poll shows Democratic candidates leading Republican incumbent Collins
Democrat rises to 77%1%
The Emerson College poll conducted March 21-23 showed both Democratic candidates, Platner and Mills, leading incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in hypothetical general election matchups, reinforcing market confidence in a Democratic win in Maine.
Janet Mills suspends Senate campaign, consolidating Democratic primary support behind Platner
Democrat rises to 77%3%
Governor Janet Mills ended her Senate campaign in early April, leaving Platner as the clear Democratic frontrunner, which increased market confidence in the Democratic nominee's chances against Collins.
Poll shows Graham Platner leads Janet Mills in Democratic primary by 33 points
Democrat rises to 77%3%
A new poll released on April 7 showed Graham Platner with a commanding 61% to 28% lead over Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary, indicating strong momentum for Platner and influencing market confidence in the Democratic nominee's chances.
Maine People’s Resource Center poll shows Platner opens 33-point lead over Mills and leads Collins
Democrat rises to 78%4%
A poll conducted March 20-31 showed Graham Platner with a commanding 61% to 28% lead over Janet Mills in the Democratic primary and Platner leading Susan Collins 48% to 39% in a general election matchup. This significant polling shift likely boosted market confidence in Platner and the Democratic outcome.
Janet Mills drops U.S. Senate bid, clearing way for Graham Platner
Democrat rises to 78%1%
Maine Governor Janet Mills suspended her Senate campaign in April 2026, leaving Graham Platner as the clear Democratic frontrunner. This consolidation boosted confidence in the Democratic candidate's chances against Republican Susan Collins, reflected in stable or rising market prices for the Democrat.
NBC News highlights battle for female voters in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 75%1%
NBC News reported on the critical role of female voters in the Maine Senate race, noting that both Democratic candidates and incumbent Republican Susan Collins have appeal among women. This underscored the importance of gender demographics in shaping the race and likely influenced market perceptions of the Democratic candidates' electability.
Maine legislature passes sweepstakes casino ban, sending bill to Governor Mills
Democrat rises to 75%1%
Maine lawmakers approved legislation banning online sweepstakes casinos, a move likely supported by Governor Janet Mills, signaling her active role in state policy and potentially boosting her profile ahead of the Senate race. This legislative success may have positively influenced perceptions of Democratic leadership in Maine.
Graham Platner leads in early Maine Senate Democratic primary polls
Democrat dips to 73%2%
Polls released in late March showed Graham Platner leading the Democratic primary field, signaling strong support and boosting his chances to face Susan Collins in the general election. This early momentum likely supported the Democrat outcome price.
Democratic primary battle intensifies as Mills launches attack ads against Platner
Democrat rises to 73%3%
Governor Janet Mills launched attack ads targeting Graham Platner's past controversial comments, aiming to energize female voters and challenge Platner's lead. Despite the attacks, Platner maintained strong polling numbers, indicating resilience and continued market confidence in his candidacy.
Democrats battle in expensive Maine Senate primary as race to unseat Collins heats up
Democrat rises to 74%1%
With over two months until the June primary, the Democratic primary between Mills and Platner intensified, with heavy fundraising and national attention. This contest was seen as critical to Democrats' chances to flip the seat from Republican Susan Collins.
Maine Democrats battle in expensive Senate primary to unseat Collins
Democrat rises to 75%2%
As the June primary approached, Democratic candidates Mills and Platner engaged in a bruising primary battle, with Mills launching attack ads against Platner. Despite attacks, Platner maintained a strong lead, reinforcing market confidence in the Democratic nominee's strength against Collins.
Emerson College Poll shows Graham Platner leading Democratic primary and both Democrats ahead of Susan Collins
Democrat rises to 74%4%
The Emerson College Poll conducted March 21-23 showed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28% in the Democratic primary and both Platner and Mills leading incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in hypothetical general election matchups. This poll highlighted Platner's strong support among male voters and contributed to increased market confidence in the Democratic candidate.
Emerson College Poll shows Platner leads Mills and Democrats lead Collins in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 74%4%
A poll conducted March 21-23 showed oyster farmer Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills 55% to 28% in the Democratic primary, and both Platner and Mills leading incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in general election matchups. This poll increased market confidence in the Democratic candidates.
Emerson College Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat rises to 73%3%
A poll conducted March 21-23 showed Platner leading Mills 55% to 28% in the Democratic primary, with both Democrats leading incumbent Susan Collins in general election matchups. This poll boosted confidence in the Democratic candidate's chances, reflected in the market price increase for the Democrat outcome.
Candidate filing deadline passes with some dropping out of Maine primaries
By March 16, the deadline to submit signatures for primary ballots passed, finalizing the candidate fields. This event clarified the race dynamics and solidified Platner's position as the Democratic nominee, maintaining the Democrat price near 74%.
Deadline for primary ballot signatures passes with some candidates failing to qualify
The March 16, 2026 deadline for submitting signatures to get on the primary ballot passed, confirming the candidates who will appear in the Democratic and Republican primaries. This solidified the race dynamics and contributed to the Democrat price stabilizing around 73%.
Union leaders urge Democratic leaders to stay out of Maine Senate primary
Democrat rises to 74%2%
Union leaders expressed concern over the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's support for Janet Mills, advocating for a less divisive primary and backing Graham Platner, highlighting intra-party tensions that affected perceptions of electability and party unity.
Polls show tight general election race between Mills and Collins, Platner leads primary
Democrat dips to 74%1%
Polls in mid-March indicated a very close general election race between Janet Mills and Susan Collins, while Graham Platner maintained a lead in the Democratic primary. The tightness of the general election race likely caused some slight market adjustments, with the Democrat price stabilizing and the Republican price slightly recovering.
Democrats consolidate support behind Janet Mills after primary controversies
Democrat rises to 75%2%
Following controversies surrounding Graham Platner, several Democratic figures and candidates consolidated support behind Janet Mills as the preferred nominee to challenge Susan Collins. This consolidation increased market confidence in the Democrat outcome, pushing prices higher.
Quantus Insights Poll Shows Platner Leading Collins in General Election Matchup
Republican drops to 26%5%
A new poll showed that while Susan Collins was in a dead heat with Janet Mills, she trailed the lesser-known Graham Platner by nearly 7 points in a general election matchup, boosting Democratic prospects.
Graham Platner leads in early Maine Senate Democratic primary polls
Democrat jumps to 75%5%
Polls in early March showed Graham Platner leading the Democratic primary field, signaling strong support among Democratic voters and boosting market confidence in his nomination chances.
Poll shows tight general election race between Susan Collins and Janet Mills
Republican dips to 27%4%
A poll indicated a close general election contest between incumbent Susan Collins and Democratic Governor Janet Mills, with Collins and Mills nearly tied. This suggested a competitive race, contributing to some volatility in market prices for both parties.
Pan Atlantic Research poll confirms Platner leading primary and general matchups
Republican dips to 26%3%
A second major poll in ten days showed Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills in the primary and holding a lead over incumbent Republican Susan Collins, reinforcing Republican vulnerability.
New Pan Atlantic Poll Shows Graham Platner Leading Democratic Primary
Democrat dips to 71%1%
A new poll from Pan Atlantic Research showed political newcomer Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary, signaling strong progressive momentum in the race to challenge Susan Collins.
New poll shows Graham Platner leading Democratic primary and close general election race
Democrat rises to 75%4%
A March 4 poll by Pan Atlantic Research showed Platner leading the Democratic primary and indicated a very close general election race regardless of the Democratic nominee, supporting the Democrat's price rise to 74-75%. This poll underscored the competitiveness of the race and Platner's strong position.
Poll confirms Graham Platner's sizable lead over Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat rises to 75%3%
A Pan Atlantic Research poll confirmed Graham Platner's sizable lead over Janet Mills in the Democratic primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status and increasing market confidence in the Democratic candidate's chances against Collins.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat jumps to 75%5%
A March poll showed Platner with a sizable lead over Mills in the Democratic primary, reflecting his strong support among younger and progressive voters, which influenced market confidence in the Democratic nominee's chances against Collins.
Poll confirms Graham Platner maintains lead over Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat rises to 74%3%
Another poll confirmed Platner's sizable lead over Mills in the Democratic primary, reinforcing his status as the frontrunner. This sustained momentum likely kept Democratic market prices elevated and pressured the Republican side.
Pan Atlantic Poll Confirms Graham Platner's Lead Over Susan Collins
Republican dips to 26%3%
A second major poll in ten days showed Platner leading Collins 44% to 40% in the general election, while Collins's approval ratings remained underwater.
Pan Atlantic Poll Confirms Platner Lead in Primary and General Matchup
Democrat dips to 71%1%
A second major poll in ten days showed Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills in the primary and holding a 44% to 40% lead over incumbent Republican Susan Collins in the general election.
Poll finds Graham Platner leading Democratic primary and close general election race
Democrat rises to 72%2%
On March 4, 2026, a poll showed Platner leading the Democratic primary against Governor Janet Mills and indicated a close general election race regardless of the Democratic nominee, reinforcing Platner's front-runner status and pushing the Democrat price up to 72%.
Polls confirm Graham Platner's lead in Democratic primary and close general election race
Democrat rises to 74%2%
Multiple polls released in early March confirmed Platner's sizable lead over Mills in the Democratic primary and showed a very close general election race against Collins. This sustained polling data supported the market's increased confidence in the Democratic outcome.
Poll shows Platner holds double-digit lead over Mills and Collins in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 75%3%
A Pan Atlantic Research poll released in early March showed Graham Platner holding a comfortable double-digit lead over both Janet Mills in the Democratic primary and incumbent Susan Collins in the general election. This reinforced Platner's front-runner status and contributed to the Democratic price peak.
Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego Endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate Race
Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego endorsed progressive Graham Platner, defying establishment support for Governor Janet Mills and highlighting growing progressive momentum.
Senator Ruben Gallego endorses Graham Platner in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 72%1%
Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego endorsed progressive candidate Graham Platner, highlighting his appeal to independent voters and veterans, which further split the Democratic establishment but solidified Platner's momentum.
Senators Ruben Gallego and Martin Heinrich endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 72%1%
Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Martin Heinrich endorsed Graham Platner, signaling growing establishment support despite Schumer backing Mills. These endorsements bolstered Platner's credibility and electability, reflected in rising market prices for the Democrat.
Senator endorsements split as Graham Platner gains support over Janet Mills
Democrat rises to 72%2%
Graham Platner received endorsements from U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders and Martin Heinrich, while some Democratic leaders supported Janet Mills. This highlighted the intra-party division and strengthened Platner's campaign momentum, impacting market confidence in the Democratic outcome.
Ruben Gallego endorses Graham Platner amid Democratic primary split
Democrat jumps to 75%5%
On March 2, Representative Ruben Gallego endorsed Graham Platner in the Democratic primary, highlighting a split within the party between establishment-backed Janet Mills and the progressive Platner. This endorsement was a significant boost for Platner's campaign and likely influenced market confidence in the Democrat outcome.
Ruben Gallego Backs Graham Platner as Democrats Split Over Maine Senate Race
Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego endorsed progressive candidate Graham Platner, highlighting a growing split in the party but boosting Platner's national profile and campaign momentum.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat rises to 73%3%
A poll indicated that Graham Platner was leading Governor Janet Mills by a significant margin in the Democratic primary, highlighting a competitive and divided primary race. This poll influenced market confidence in the Democrat outcome, reflecting increased uncertainty about the nominee but overall Democratic strength.
Unions urge Democratic leaders to support Graham Platner in Maine Senate primary
Democrat rises to 71%2%
Several unions publicly pushed Democratic leaders, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, to stop backing Governor Janet Mills and instead support Graham Platner. This union support strengthened Platner's position in the primary, influencing market prices upward for the Democrat.
Unions urge Schumer and Democratic leaders to stop backing Gov. Mills in Maine primary
Democrat rises to 72%3%
Union leaders publicly urged Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and the DSCC to withdraw support from Gov. Janet Mills, citing her weaker labor record, which bolstered Graham Platner's position and market confidence in his nomination chances.
Poll finds Platner leads Mills and Collins in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 72%3%
A poll published on February 25 confirmed Platner's lead over Mills in the Democratic primary and showed him ahead of incumbent Republican Susan Collins in a general election matchup, reinforcing the Democrat's market position and contributing to a price increase to 72%.
Poll shows Graham Platner growing lead over Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat rises to 73%4%
An Emerson College Polling survey showed Platner leading Mills by about 27 points in the Democratic primary, strengthening his position as the likely nominee and boosting Democratic market odds.
Poll shows Graham Platner with large lead over Gov. Mills in Democratic Senate primary
A UNH Survey Center poll released on February 24 showed Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary, boosting confidence in Platner's chances and increasing the Democratic outcome price.
Poll shows Graham Platner leads Janet Mills in Democratic primary and Susan Collins in general election
Democrat rises to 70%1%
A University of New Hampshire poll revealed Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary and also ahead of Senator Susan Collins in a general election matchup. This boosted Platner's perceived electability and increased the Democrat's market price.
UNH poll shows Graham Platner leading Susan Collins in general election matchup
Democrat rises to 71%2%
A new University of New Hampshire poll showed progressive upstart Graham Platner leading incumbent Susan Collins 49% to 38% in a hypothetical general election matchup, boosting Democratic prospects.
New Poll Shows Graham Platner Leading Susan Collins in Maine Senate Race
Democrat rises to 71%2%
A UNH Survey Center poll showed Democratic candidate Graham Platner leading incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins 49% to 38% in a hypothetical general election matchup, boosting Democratic prospects.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary and Collins in general election
Democrat rises to 71%2%
A University of New Hampshire poll revealed Platner leading Mills decisively in the Democratic primary and also ahead of Collins in a hypothetical general election matchup. This boosted market confidence in the Democratic candidate, particularly Platner, raising his price.
UNH poll shows Platner leading Mills in Democratic primary and general election matchup
Democrat rises to 72%3%
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in the Democratic primary and also leading Susan Collins in a general election matchup, boosting Platner's perceived electability and impacting market prices.
Democratic primary candidate Graham Platner faces controversy but maintains campaign
Democrat rises to 70%1%
Graham Platner, a Democratic candidate, faced public scrutiny over a tattoo linked to a Nazi symbol and past online comments, yet remained committed to his Senate campaign. This stirred debate within the Democratic primary, impacting perceptions of electability and causing volatility in the Democrat outcome price.
Susan Collins officially announces bid for sixth Senate term
Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins announced her historic bid for a sixth term, solidifying her position as the Republican candidate and setting the stage for the 2026 race. This announcement reinforced her market standing and support among Republicans.
Senator Susan Collins announces reelection bid for Maine Senate seat
Republican rises to 32%1%
Susan Collins officially announced her bid for a sixth term, signaling a competitive race ahead. Her incumbency and moderate profile made her a formidable candidate, but the announcement also intensified Democratic efforts to unseat her, impacting market confidence in the Republican outcome.
Susan Collins officially launches 2026 reelection bid in Maine
Republican rises to 32%2%
Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins officially announced her run for a sixth term in the U.S. Senate, solidifying the Republican ticket in one of the cycle's most competitive races.
Senator Susan Collins officially launches 2026 reelection campaign
Republican rises to 32%3%
Susan Collins formally announced her bid for a sixth term in a video on February 10, 2026, solidifying her candidacy and setting the stage for a highly competitive race. Her incumbency and fundraising advantage influenced market confidence in her chances.
Sen. Susan Collins officially launches 2026 reelection campaign
Republican rises to 32%2%
Susan Collins officially announced her bid for a sixth Senate term with a video, confirming her candidacy and setting the stage for a competitive general election against the Democratic nominee, which stabilized Republican market odds.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills launches Senate run against Susan Collins
Democrat rises to 70%2%
Mills pitched herself as the Democratic Party's best chance to defeat Susan Collins, emphasizing her electoral experience and opposition to Trump. This announcement reinforced Democratic confidence and contributed to the upward trend in the Democrat outcome price.
Democrats burn cash while Sen. Susan Collins stockpiles funds in Maine Senate race
Republican rises to 32%2%
Reports showed Democratic candidates Mills and Platner trailing in fundraising compared to Collins, who amassed significant campaign funds, reinforcing her strong position despite polling challenges.
Democrats burn cash while Susan Collins stockpiles funds in Maine Senate race
Republican rises to 28%2%
Campaign finance reports in early February 2026 showed Democratic candidates Janet Mills and Graham Platner trailing Susan Collins significantly in fundraising, reinforcing Collins' financial advantage and impacting market perceptions of the race.
House Republicans report strong fundraising entering 2026 midterms
House Republicans, including vulnerable members, reported strong fundraising in late 2025, signaling robust GOP efforts to maintain control amid challenging midterm conditions. This broader GOP momentum may have influenced Senate race dynamics including Maine.
Independent candidate Tim Rich enters Maine Senate race
Tim Rich, a political outsider running as an independent, announced his candidacy to challenge Republican Susan Collins, potentially affecting the general election dynamics by introducing a third option outside the major parties.
Senate Leadership Fund invests $42 million to support Susan Collins' reelection
The Senate Leadership Fund, a top Republican super PAC, announced a $42 million investment to support Senator Susan Collins' 2026 reelection campaign, signaling strong GOP commitment to retaining the seat and intensifying the general election battle.
Poll shows Susan Collins holds slim lead over Graham Platner
Democrat rises to 71%2%
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll from January 20-24, 2026, showed incumbent Susan Collins with a narrow 45%-44% lead over Democratic challenger Graham Platner among likely voters, reflecting a very close general election race and contributing to market volatility.
Republican super PAC invests $42M to support Susan Collins’ reelection
The Senate Leadership Fund announced a $42 million investment to support incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins’ bid for a sixth term. This significant financial backing underscored Collins’ strength and the competitiveness of the general election race in Maine.
Poll shows Graham Platner maintaining significant lead over Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat dips to 73%1%
Despite earlier controversies, Platner's campaign-released poll showed him with a strong and stable lead over Mills in the Democratic primary, indicating ongoing uncertainty and competition within the party.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills by 15 points in Democratic primary
Democrat dips to 72%2%
A mid-December poll from Platner's campaign showed him with a 15-point lead over Mills, indicating ongoing volatility and competitiveness in the Democratic primary race.
Analysis highlights age divide in Maine Democratic primary
A January 6 analysis noted a significant age gap in voter preferences, with older voters favoring Janet Mills and younger voters strongly supporting Graham Platner. This generational divide added complexity to the primary dynamics and contributed to market volatility as the race remained uncertain.
Analysis highlights large age gap in Democratic primary support between Mills and Platner
Democrat dips to 72%1%
Political analysis revealed a significant divide in voter preferences by age, with older voters favoring Mills and younger voters strongly supporting Platner, underscoring the primary's unpredictability and impact on market prices.
Graham Platner raises $4.7 million despite controversies
Democrat dips to 68%1%
Despite ongoing controversies, Graham Platner's campaign reported raising $4.7 million in the final quarter of 2025, indicating strong fundraising ability and sustained support among progressive voters, which kept him competitive in the Democratic primary.
Poll shows Graham Platner narrowly leading Susan Collins in general election matchup
Republican drops to 23%10%
A poll indicated Platner leading incumbent Republican Susan Collins in a hypothetical general election, signaling a competitive race and affecting market perceptions of the Republican candidate's chances.
Maine Senate race becomes 4th most expensive in the nation
Reports on December 19 highlighted the surge in campaign spending in the Maine Senate race, emphasizing its national importance and competitiveness. High spending levels by both parties underscored the race's significance and likely influenced market perceptions of the general election competitiveness.
Mills maintains lead amid primary tensions and progressive challenges
Democrat drops to 68%5%
Despite ongoing primary tensions and challenges from progressive candidates, Mills sustained her lead as the favored Democratic candidate, with market prices stabilizing around 70%, reflecting confidence in her electability against Collins.
Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey endorses Janet Mills
Democrat rises to 73%1%
Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey endorsed Janet Mills in the Democratic primary, providing a boost to Mills' campaign by reinforcing her establishment support and potentially swaying moderate voters. This endorsement likely contributed to strengthening Mills' position in the primary race.
Race rating changes as Maine Senate contest moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up
Democrat jumps to 79%11%
Following Mills' entry and growing support, political forecasters shifted Maine's Senate race rating from 'leans Republican' to 'toss-up,' reflecting increased competitiveness and boosting Democratic market odds to a peak of 79%.
Senate Democrats launch ads targeting Susan Collins over health care
Republican drops to 31%5%
The Democratic National Committee released the first round of Senate campaign ads targeting Republican Senator Susan Collins, focusing on health care issues and aiming to capitalize on her vulnerabilities in the 2026 race. This increased the competitiveness of the general election race.
New polling shows Janet Mills leads Graham Platner in Democratic primary
Democrat jumps to 77%9%
Recent polls showed Mills leading Platner by about ten points in the Democratic primary, reflecting the impact of Platner's controversies and Mills' establishment support, solidifying her front-runner status.
New poll shows Janet Mills leading Graham Platner in tight Democratic primary race
Democrat jumps to 75%7%
A December poll showed Mills gaining a 10-point lead over Platner, signaling a shift in voter sentiment possibly due to her experience and establishment support, which increased her chances in the primary and general election.
New Polling Shows Governor Janet Mills Leading Graham Platner in Democratic Primary
Democrat jumps to 78%10%
A nonpartisan Pan Atlantic Research poll showed Governor Janet Mills leading progressive challenger Graham Platner by ten points, reassuring establishment Democrats of her frontrunner status.
Poll shows Janet Mills leading Graham Platner in Democratic primary
Democrat jumps to 78%7%
A Pan Atlantic Research poll conducted in early December 2025 showed Governor Janet Mills leading Graham Platner by ten points in the Democratic primary, indicating a competitive but Mills-favored race within the party. This poll influenced market perceptions of the Democratic nomination dynamics.
New polls show Mills leading Platner in tight Democratic primary race
Democrat jumps to 74%6%
Recent polling indicated Janet Mills leading Graham Platner by about ten points in the Democratic primary, reflecting a tightening race but with Mills maintaining an advantage. The polls also showed a close general election matchup against Susan Collins, keeping the race competitive.
Abortion rights group Reproductive Freedom for All endorses Janet Mills
Democrat jumps to 74%6%
Major reproductive rights organization Reproductive Freedom for All endorsed Governor Janet Mills, consolidating establishment and institutional support behind her primary campaign.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Republican dips to 68%2%
A Newsweek poll released on December 3 showed Graham Platner leading Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary, signaling a significant challenge to Mills' frontrunner status and causing a market shift favoring the Republican outcome. Platner's progressive endorsements and grassroots support contrasted with Mills' establishment backing, highlighting a competitive primary.
Senator Susan Collins announces reelection bid with strong fundraising
Republican dips to 27%3%
Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins officially announced her reelection campaign, entering the race with over $8 million cash on hand, reinforcing her position as a formidable candidate despite Maine's shifting political landscape.
Controversies emerge around Graham Platner, boosting Janet Mills' standing
Democrat jumps to 68%8%
Negative revelations about Platner's past statements and a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol surfaced, damaging his campaign and boosting Mills' position in the Democratic primary, reflected in a sharp increase in her market odds.
Democratic primary tensions cause brief market volatility
Democrat drops to 60%11%
The Democratic primary race saw fluctuations as internal party divisions and primary competition intensified, causing a temporary dip in Mills' market price from 71% to 60% and a corresponding rise in the Republican price. This reflected uncertainty about the Democratic nominee's strength.
EMILYs List poll shows Platner likely to lose general election
Democrat jumps to 68%8%
A poll commissioned by EMILYs List, which endorses Mills, indicated that Platner's social media history and controversies would be a major liability in the general election, reducing his electability and boosting Mills' standing as the stronger candidate to defeat Republican Susan Collins.
EMILYs List Poll Warns Platner Social Media History Is General Election Liability
Republican jumps to 39%8%
An EMILYs List poll conducted by Impact Research showed that progressive candidate Graham Platner's controversial past comments could disqualify him with general election voters, highlighting primary vulnerabilities.
Conflicting polls show Platner leading Mills and Collins in Maine Senate race
Democrat jumps to 73%5%
Two polls released in November showed contrasting results: one with Graham Platner leading the Democratic primary and general election matchup, and another showing Susan Collins leading Platner. This created uncertainty and volatility in the market prices for both parties.
Democratic candidate Jordan Wood drops out to run for House seat, endorses Mills amid Platner controversies
Democrat jumps to 68%8%
Jordan Wood exited the Senate race to run for a House seat and endorsed Janet Mills, citing concerns over Platner's controversial past remarks. This consolidation of support around Mills helped stabilize her position in the primary and boosted her market standing.
EMILYs List poll warns Platner's controversies are a general election liability
Democrat drops to 60%9%
A poll commissioned by EMILYs List showed that Graham Platner's past comments were highly disqualifying for general election voters, highlighting establishment concerns over his viability.
Democrat Jordan Wood switches from Senate to House race
Democrat dips to 68%2%
Jordan Wood, initially a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, switched to run for a U.S. House seat, reducing the number of Democratic contenders and potentially consolidating support behind Mills and Platner in the Senate primary.
EMILYs List poll finds Platner unelectable against Collins
Democrat rises to 70%2%
A poll conducted for EMILYs List, which endorsed Mills, found that Platner would lose to Republican Susan Collins by a wide margin when voters were informed of his controversial past posts and tattoo. This poll reinforced concerns about Platner's general election viability and boosted support for Mills.
EMILYs List Poll Warns Graham Platner's Social Media History Is Major General Election Liability
Democrat dips to 68%1%
A newly released Democratic polling memo warned that Platner's controversial past statements and social media history would make him a major liability in a general election against Susan Collins.
Maine voters reject Republican voter ID proposal, signaling Democratic strength
Democrat jumps to 67%9%
Maine voters overwhelmingly rejected a Republican-backed voter ID and absentee voting restrictions proposal, indicating a favorable environment for Democrats in the upcoming Senate race and boosting confidence in Democratic candidates.
Senate Democrats back Janet Mills as best candidate to unseat Susan Collins
Democrat jumps to 68%10%
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer publicly endorsed Janet Mills as the best candidate to retire Susan Collins, reinforcing establishment support and increasing market confidence in Mills' chances, with Democrat odds rising to 68%.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary
Democrat drops to 60%9%
A poll showed Graham Platner leading Mills by a significant margin in the Democratic primary, reflecting a surge in Platner's support and causing some volatility in the Democratic market odds.
Susan Collins wins reelection in Maine, boosting Senate GOP
Susan Collins' 2024 reelection victory reinforced her incumbency and established her as a strong candidate for 2026, supporting early market confidence in her chances.
Janet Mills gains significant polling lead amid Platner controversies
Democrat jumps to 68%10%
Polls showed Mills taking a strong lead over Platner in the Democratic primary, reflecting growing confidence in her electability against Collins. This was mirrored by a sharp increase in the Democrat market price from 58% to 68%.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary despite controversies
Democrat jumps to 72%14%
A poll indicated Platner leading Mills by a significant margin, reflecting his strong grassroots support and appeal among younger voters, which kept the Democratic primary competitive despite his controversies.
Polls show Graham Platner leading Janet Mills in Democratic primary despite controversies
Democrat jumps to 65%7%
Despite controversies, Platner maintained a strong lead in some polls over Mills in the Democratic primary, indicating a competitive and uncertain primary race that influenced market fluctuations.
Poll shows Platner leading Collins but Mills trailing in general election matchup
Democrat jumps to 68%10%
A poll indicated Platner leading incumbent Republican Susan Collins in a hypothetical general election, while Mills trailed Collins. This highlighted Platner's appeal to some voters despite controversies, influencing market prices favoring the Democrat overall.
Maine Voters Reject Photo ID Referendum and Approve Red Flag Gun Law
Democrat jumps to 68%10%
In the 2025 state referendum, Maine voters soundly rejected conservative-backed voting restrictions and approved a progressive red flag gun law, signaling strong Democratic alignment in the state.
Democratic candidate Graham Platner addresses past online controversies
Republican drops to 30%13%
Progressive Democratic candidate Graham Platner faced intense scrutiny and apologized for past offensive online comments and a controversial tattoo, causing temporary volatility in Democratic primary dynamics.
Platner addresses controversies, vows to continue campaign
Despite multiple damaging revelations about his past, including offensive comments and a Nazi-linked tattoo, Graham Platner publicly apologized and declared his commitment to continue his Senate campaign, maintaining support from progressive figures like Bernie Sanders. This helped stabilize his support but did not reverse market losses.
Graham Platner wins Maine Democratic Senate primary despite controversies
Democrat rises to 71%3%
Platner secured the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Maine, overcoming controversies and a strong challenge from Janet Mills. This solidified the general election matchup against incumbent Republican Susan Collins.
Graham Platner faces controversies amid Maine Senate campaign
Democrat jumps to 68%10%
Progressive candidate Graham Platner faced damaging revelations about past offensive comments and associations, which weakened his campaign and boosted Janet Mills' electability in the Democratic primary, reflected in a rise in Mills' market price from 58% to 68%.
Graham Platner refuses to quit amid controversies over Nazi-linked tattoo and past statements
Democrat rises to 60%2%
Despite damaging revelations about a Nazi-linked tattoo and offensive past online comments, Platner remained committed to his Senate campaign, rallying progressive support. This sustained his candidacy but also deepened the divide within the Democratic primary, impacting market sentiment.
Poll shows Janet Mills leads Platner amid controversy
Democrat jumps to 68%12%
A SoCal Strategies poll showed Janet Mills taking a lead over Graham Platner in the Democratic primary following the controversies surrounding Platner's past posts and tattoo. The poll indicated a significant shift in voter support favoring Mills, reflecting the impact of the negative publicity on Platner's campaign.
Controversy over Platner's tattoo and past posts shifts polling in favor of Mills
Democrat jumps to 67%9%
Following revelations about Platner's tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol and offensive online comments, polls showed a significant shift with Janet Mills taking the lead in the Democratic primary. This controversy raised questions about Platner's electability and caused a notable market reaction.
Democratic candidate Daira Smith-Rodriguez drops out endorsing Mills
Democrat rises to 70%2%
Daira Smith-Rodriguez, a Democratic Senate candidate and military sexual assault survivor, dropped out of the race and endorsed Janet Mills, citing Platner’s past controversial remarks as disqualifying. This consolidation of support strengthened Mills’ position in the primary.
Democratic candidate drops out endorsing Mills amid Platner controversies
Daira Smith-Rodriguez dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Janet Mills, citing concerns over Graham Platner's controversial past remarks and homophobic language. This event signaled growing establishment consolidation around Mills and hurt Platner's campaign momentum.
Sabato's Crystal Ball shifts Maine Senate race rating to 'Toss-up'
Following Governor Janet Mills' entry into the race, political analysts moved the Maine Senate race from 'Leans Republican' to 'Toss-up', reflecting increased Democratic chances of flipping the seat.
Poll shows Graham Platner leading Democratic primary despite controversies
Democrat dips to 57%1%
A University of New Hampshire poll showed Graham Platner with a strong lead over Janet Mills in the Democratic primary, reflecting his early momentum despite emerging controversies about his past statements and tattoo. This caused market fluctuations favoring the Democrat overall but with uncertainty between candidates.
UNH Poll Shows Progressive Graham Platner Leading Janet Mills by Wide Margin
A new University of New Hampshire poll showed progressive political newcomer Graham Platner holding a massive 58% to 24% lead over Governor Janet Mills in the Democratic primary.
Democratic Senate Candidate Graham Platner Admits Covering Up Nazi-Resembling Tattoo
Republican drops to 36%7%
Progressive candidate Graham Platner faced intense scrutiny and confirmed he covered up a chest tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, sparking a major controversy in the Democratic primary.
Graham Platner faces controversies but remains in Democratic primary
Democrat drops to 52%6%
Platner faced damaging revelations including offensive past comments and a tattoo linked to Nazi symbolism, which hurt his electability in polls. Despite this, he maintained a base of support, especially among younger voters, keeping the primary competitive.
Controversy emerges over Democratic candidate Graham Platner's tattoo resembling Nazi symbol
Graham Platner faced public scrutiny after revelations about a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, which he covered up. This controversy likely dampened his support and boosted Mills' relative standing in the primary.
Graham Platner covers up tattoo resembling Nazi symbol amid controversy
Platner revealed he covered up a tattoo on his chest that resembled a Nazi symbol, which he had for nearly 20 years. This revelation added to the controversies surrounding his candidacy but did not end his campaign.
Graham Platner leads in early Democratic primary polls despite controversies
Democrat jumps to 58%6%
Progressive candidate Graham Platner, endorsed by Bernie Sanders, showed strong leads in early polls against Janet Mills despite controversies over past offensive social media posts and a Nazi-linked tattoo. His insurgent campaign attracted large crowds and significant grassroots support, challenging establishment expectations.
Graham Platner controversy over Nazi symbol tattoo emerges
Democrat rises to 58%2%
Democratic candidate Graham Platner faced backlash after revelations that a tattoo on his chest resembled a Nazi symbol. Platner apologized and covered the tattoo, claiming he was unaware of its connotations. This controversy raised questions about his electability and caused polling shifts in the Democratic primary.
Controversies emerge around Democratic candidate Graham Platner
Democrat rises to 60%2%
Graham Platner faced damaging revelations about past offensive comments and a Nazi-associated tattoo, which hurt his campaign and shifted support towards Mills. This controversy caused volatility in the Democratic market prices, with Mills gaining ground.
Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner apologizes for past social media posts
Graham Platner apologized for controversial past social media posts criticizing police and rural Americans, which sparked public scrutiny and raised questions about his electability. Despite the controversy, he maintained momentum in the Democratic primary.
Dan Kleban drops out as Mills shakes up Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 58%2%
Following Mills' entry, candidate Dan Kleban dropped out, consolidating the Democratic field. Mills received strong establishment support, including from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which helped raise significant funds, boosting her campaign's viability.
Dan Kleban drops out and endorses Janet Mills in Maine Senate race
Democrat rises to 58%1%
Democratic candidate Dan Kleban suspended his campaign and endorsed Janet Mills, consolidating establishment support behind her and strengthening her position in the primary. This endorsement contributed to a further increase in Mills' market odds.
Maine Governor Janet Mills announces 2026 U.S. Senate run
Democrat jumps to 58%6%
Janet Mills, the Democratic Governor of Maine, officially announced her candidacy for the 2026 U.S. Senate race, positioning herself as the leading Democratic contender to unseat Republican incumbent Susan Collins. This announcement boosted Democratic prospects in the market, reflected in rising prices for the Democrat outcome.
Dan Kleban drops out, reshaping Maine Senate Democratic primary
Democrat rises to 57%1%
The withdrawal of candidate Dan Kleban from the Democratic primary narrowed the field, consolidating support among remaining candidates including Mills and Platner. This event contributed to market adjustments as the primary dynamics became clearer.
Democratic candidate Dan Kleban drops out, endorses Janet Mills
Dan Kleban suspended his Senate campaign and endorsed Janet Mills, consolidating Democratic support behind Mills and strengthening her position in the primary, which positively influenced the Democratic market odds.
Janet Mills launches campaign for Maine Senate seat
Democrat jumps to 58%6%
Maine Governor Janet Mills announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate, setting the stage for a competitive Democratic primary against other contenders, including Graham Platner. This announcement increased attention on the Democratic primary race.
Maine Governor Janet Mills Launches Senate Campaign to Unseat Susan Collins
Democrat rises to 56%4%
Governor Janet Mills officially entered the Democratic primary to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins, immediately establishing herself as a top-tier candidate and boosting Democratic prospects.
Janet Mills announces Senate run, gaining establishment support
Democrat rises to 56%4%
Janet Mills officially entered the Maine Senate race, quickly becoming the establishment favorite with endorsements from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Emily's List, and setting up a joint fundraising committee with the DSCC. This boosted her profile and fundraising, shifting market sentiment in her favor.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills launches Senate run against Republican Susan Collins
Democrat jumps to 58%6%
Two-term Democratic Governor Janet Mills officially announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate, immediately establishing herself as a formidable challenger to incumbent Republican Susan Collins.
Janet Mills announces 2026 Senate run to challenge Susan Collins
Democrat rises to 56%4%
Janet Mills, two-term Maine governor, officially launched her campaign for the U.S. Senate, positioning herself as the Democratic establishment's preferred candidate to unseat Republican incumbent Susan Collins. This announcement marked a significant development in the race, energizing the Democratic primary and shifting market expectations.
Maine Gov. Janet Mills announces Senate run, endorsed by Chuck Schumer and Emily's List
Democrat rises to 56%4%
Janet Mills officially launched her Senate campaign, positioning herself as the Democratic establishment favorite to unseat Republican Susan Collins. Her entry caused several candidates to drop out and led to increased fundraising and endorsements, boosting her market support.
Maine Governor Janet Mills announces Senate run against Susan Collins
Democrat jumps to 58%6%
Janet Mills, the two-term Democratic governor of Maine, officially announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate, positioning herself as the Democratic Party's best chance to unseat Republican incumbent Susan Collins. This announcement significantly boosted the Democratic odds in the market as Mills brought strong name recognition and electoral experience.
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