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Politics·US Election

MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·US Election

MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner

Stephen Lynch 74%

Patrick Roath 27%

Andrew Zylberfink <1%

Polymarket

$52,474 Vol.

Stephen Lynch 74%

Patrick Roath 27%

Andrew Zylberfink <1%

Polymarket

$52,474 Vol.

icon for Stephen Lynch

Stephen Lynch

$25,562 Vol.

74%

icon for Patrick Roath

Patrick Roath

$23,409 Vol.

27%

icon for Andrew Zylberfink

Andrew Zylberfink

$3,503 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Stephen Lynch maintains a strong position in the MA-08 Democratic primary due to decades of name recognition, committee roles, and established district relationships that favor continuity over generational change. Challenger Patrick Roath, a 39-year-old attorney and former Deval Patrick aide, has narrowed the gap through superior grassroots fundraising exceeding $1.1 million, endorsements from local officials and progressive groups including David Hogg’s PAC, and targeted mailers framing Lynch as out of step. Recent late-August polling shows Roath within single digits in some surveys, yet trader consensus reflects Lynch’s durable base and the compressed timeline ahead of the September 1 primary. Minor candidate Andrew Zylberfink holds negligible support after withdrawing from contention.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$52,474
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Stephen Lynch maintains a strong position in the MA-08 Democratic primary due to decades of name recognition, committee roles, and established district relationships that favor continuity over generational change. Challenger Patrick Roath, a 39-year-old attorney and former Deval Patrick aide, has narrowed the gap through superior grassroots fundraising exceeding $1.1 million, endorsements from local officials and progressive groups including David Hogg’s PAC, and targeted mailers framing Lynch as out of step. Recent late-August polling shows Roath within single digits in some surveys, yet trader consensus reflects Lynch’s durable base and the compressed timeline ahead of the September 1 primary. Minor candidate Andrew Zylberfink holds negligible support after withdrawing from contention.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$52,474
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 3, 2026, 6:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 1, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Stephen Lynch" at 74%, followed by "Patrick Roath" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $52.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Stephen Lynch" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Patrick Roath" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-08 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.