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Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner

Dan Koh 89%

Tram Nguyen 11.2%

John Beccia <1%

Seth Moulton <1%

Polymarket

$126,789 Vol.

Dan Koh 89%

Tram Nguyen 11.2%

John Beccia <1%

Seth Moulton <1%

Polymarket

$126,789 Vol.

icon for Dan Koh

Dan Koh

$59,597 Vol.

89%

icon for Tram Nguyen

Tram Nguyen

$19,581 Vol.

11%

icon for John Beccia

John Beccia

$7,173 Vol.

1%

icon for Seth Moulton

Seth Moulton

$4,873 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mariah Lancaster

Mariah Lancaster

$3,037 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jamie Zahlaway Belsito

Jamie Zahlaway Belsito

$3,970 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kevin Larivee

Kevin Larivee

$2,864 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dominick Pangallo

Dominick Pangallo

$8,344 Vol.

<1%

icon for Beth Andres-Beck

Beth Andres-Beck

$3,481 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rick Jakious

Rick Jakious

$4,380 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rachel Creemers

Rachel Creemers

$3,425 Vol.

<1%

icon for Diann Slavit Baylis

Diann Slavit Baylis

$6,065 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Dan Koh holds an 89% implied probability in the MA-06 Democratic primary due to his dominant fundraising edge, with over $4.5 million raised and roughly $3 million cash on hand, plus endorsements from former President Biden, Vice President Harris, and numerous unions and local officials. The open seat, created by Rep. Seth Moulton’s Senate bid, features a September 1 primary where Koh’s White House and state government experience positions him as the frontrunner against challengers emphasizing outsider perspectives. State Rep. Tram Nguyen trails at under 11% amid far lower resources, while self-funded candidate John Beccia and others remain at negligible levels despite attacks framing Koh as a Washington insider. Recent polls from late July and early August showed Koh leading by double digits among likely Democratic voters, reflecting the market’s consensus on institutional advantages in the closing days before the vote.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$126,789
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Dan Koh holds an 89% implied probability in the MA-06 Democratic primary due to his dominant fundraising edge, with over $4.5 million raised and roughly $3 million cash on hand, plus endorsements from former President Biden, Vice President Harris, and numerous unions and local officials. The open seat, created by Rep. Seth Moulton’s Senate bid, features a September 1 primary where Koh’s White House and state government experience positions him as the frontrunner against challengers emphasizing outsider perspectives. State Rep. Tram Nguyen trails at under 11% amid far lower resources, while self-funded candidate John Beccia and others remain at negligible levels despite attacks framing Koh as a Washington insider. Recent polls from late July and early August showed Koh leading by double digits among likely Democratic voters, reflecting the market’s consensus on institutional advantages in the closing days before the vote.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$126,789
End Date
Sep 1, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 3:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 15, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dan Koh" at 89%, followed by "Tram Nguyen" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $126.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Dan Koh" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tram Nguyen" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MA-06 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.