**Two confirmed Republican Senate incumbent primary losses—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—anchor current trader consensus around 2–3 outcomes, with 3 holding a narrow lead at 56%.** Trump-endorsed challengers, including Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton, capitalized on intra-party tensions and base dissatisfaction in those states, defeating the long-serving incumbents in primaries and a runoff respectively. These mark the first elected Senate Republican primary defeats since 2012. Most other GOP incumbents seeking renomination, such as Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Roger Marshall in Kansas, and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, advanced with minimal opposition amid a cycle featuring several open seats from retirements. With the bulk of primaries concluded and few remaining high-profile contests, the modest premium on three losses reflects limited but lingering uncertainty over any additional upsets before the September primaries wrap up. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these dynamics rather than a forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3 55.1%
2 42.1%
0 <1%
1 <1%
$70,437 Vol.
$70,437 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
42%
3
55%
4
<1%
>4
<1%
3 55.1%
2 42.1%
0 <1%
1 <1%
$70,437 Vol.
$70,437 Vol.
0
$4,221 Vol.
<1%
1
$3,323 Vol.
<1%
2
$37,815 Vol.
42%
3
$14,413 Vol.
55%
4
$6,571 Vol.
<1%
>4
$4,094 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two confirmed Republican Senate incumbent primary losses—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—anchor current trader consensus around 2–3 outcomes, with 3 holding a narrow lead at 56%.**
Trump-endorsed challengers, including Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton, capitalized on intra-party tensions and base dissatisfaction in those states, defeating the long-serving incumbents in primaries and a runoff respectively. These mark the first elected Senate Republican primary defeats since 2012.
Most other GOP incumbents seeking renomination, such as Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Roger Marshall in Kansas, and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, advanced with minimal opposition amid a cycle featuring several open seats from retirements. With the bulk of primaries concluded and few remaining high-profile contests, the modest premium on three losses reflects limited but lingering uncertainty over any additional upsets before the September primaries wrap up. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these dynamics rather than a forecast.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$70,437Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Two confirmed Republican Senate incumbent primary losses—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—anchor current trader consensus around 2–3 outcomes, with 3 holding a narrow lead at 56%.**
Trump-endorsed challengers, including Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton, capitalized on intra-party tensions and base dissatisfaction in those states, defeating the long-serving incumbents in primaries and a runoff respectively. These mark the first elected Senate Republican primary defeats since 2012.
Most other GOP incumbents seeking renomination, such as Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Roger Marshall in Kansas, and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, advanced with minimal opposition amid a cycle featuring several open seats from retirements. With the bulk of primaries concluded and few remaining high-profile contests, the modest premium on three losses reflects limited but lingering uncertainty over any additional upsets before the September primaries wrap up. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these dynamics rather than a forecast.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$70,437Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Two confirmed Republican Senate incumbent primary losses—Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas—anchor current trader consensus around 2–3 outcomes, with 3 holding a narrow lead at 56%.** Trump-endorsed challengers, including Julia Letlow and Ken Paxton, capitalized on intra-party tensions and base dissatisfaction in those states, defeating the long-serving incumbents in primaries and a runoff respectively. These mark the first elected Senate Republican primary defeats since 2012. Most other GOP incumbents seeking renomination, such as Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Roger Marshall in Kansas, and Mike Rounds in South Dakota, advanced with minimal opposition amid a cycle featuring several open seats from retirements. With the bulk of primaries concluded and few remaining high-profile contests, the modest premium on three losses reflects limited but lingering uncertainty over any additional upsets before the September primaries wrap up. Trader pricing reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these dynamics rather than a forecast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
94%
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
76%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions