Trump-aligned challenges and redistricting in states like Texas have already produced several Republican House primary defeats in 2026, including Thomas Massie and Dan Crenshaw, with additional losses such as Andy Ogles amid scandals. These developments, combined with targeted opposition to incumbents viewed as insufficiently loyal on key votes, explain why traders assign overwhelming probability to a total of 4-6 Republican incumbents failing to win renomination. Most remaining contested primaries feature favored incumbents or limited serious opposition, consistent with historical renomination rates above 95 percent absent unusual pressure. Late-cycle surprises such as new scandals, unexpected endorsement shifts, or successful challenges in battleground districts like those in Tennessee or Colorado could push the total higher into the 7-9 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
4-6 94.2%
7-9 3.8%
10-12 1.8%
>15 1.1%
$85,199 Vol.
$85,199 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4-6
94%
7-9
4%
10-12
2%
13-15
1%
>15
1%
4-6 94.2%
7-9 3.8%
10-12 1.8%
>15 1.1%
$85,199 Vol.
$85,199 Vol.
≤3
$38,821 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$28,180 Vol.
94%
7-9
$6,497 Vol.
4%
10-12
$5,051 Vol.
2%
13-15
$3,933 Vol.
1%
>15
$2,716 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trump-aligned challenges and redistricting in states like Texas have already produced several Republican House primary defeats in 2026, including Thomas Massie and Dan Crenshaw, with additional losses such as Andy Ogles amid scandals. These developments, combined with targeted opposition to incumbents viewed as insufficiently loyal on key votes, explain why traders assign overwhelming probability to a total of 4-6 Republican incumbents failing to win renomination. Most remaining contested primaries feature favored incumbents or limited serious opposition, consistent with historical renomination rates above 95 percent absent unusual pressure. Late-cycle surprises such as new scandals, unexpected endorsement shifts, or successful challenges in battleground districts like those in Tennessee or Colorado could push the total higher into the 7-9 range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$85,199Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Trump-aligned challenges and redistricting in states like Texas have already produced several Republican House primary defeats in 2026, including Thomas Massie and Dan Crenshaw, with additional losses such as Andy Ogles amid scandals. These developments, combined with targeted opposition to incumbents viewed as insufficiently loyal on key votes, explain why traders assign overwhelming probability to a total of 4-6 Republican incumbents failing to win renomination. Most remaining contested primaries feature favored incumbents or limited serious opposition, consistent with historical renomination rates above 95 percent absent unusual pressure. Late-cycle surprises such as new scandals, unexpected endorsement shifts, or successful challenges in battleground districts like those in Tennessee or Colorado could push the total higher into the 7-9 range.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$85,199Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trump-aligned challenges and redistricting in states like Texas have already produced several Republican House primary defeats in 2026, including Thomas Massie and Dan Crenshaw, with additional losses such as Andy Ogles amid scandals. These developments, combined with targeted opposition to incumbents viewed as insufficiently loyal on key votes, explain why traders assign overwhelming probability to a total of 4-6 Republican incumbents failing to win renomination. Most remaining contested primaries feature favored incumbents or limited serious opposition, consistent with historical renomination rates above 95 percent absent unusual pressure. Late-cycle surprises such as new scandals, unexpected endorsement shifts, or successful challenges in battleground districts like those in Tennessee or Colorado could push the total higher into the 7-9 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
76%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
56%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
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Frequently Asked Questions