The open U.S. Senate seat created by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire drives current trader sentiment, with Democratic nominee Chris Pappas favored in an open-seat contest in a state that has backed Democrats in recent federal elections. Recent August 2026 polling averages show Pappas holding a modest edge over likely Republican nominee John Sununu, consistent with forecaster ratings of lean or likely Democratic. Sununu leads his primary comfortably but faces a competitive general-election matchup shaped by turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and campaign spending. Traders assign the Republican nominee low implied probability given these structural and polling factors, though the race remains within reach if general-election conditions shift before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$83,051 Vol.
$83,051 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
88%
Republican
13%
$83,051 Vol.
$83,051 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrat
$56,293 Vol.
88%
Republican
$26,757 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open U.S. Senate seat created by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire drives current trader sentiment, with Democratic nominee Chris Pappas favored in an open-seat contest in a state that has backed Democrats in recent federal elections. Recent August 2026 polling averages show Pappas holding a modest edge over likely Republican nominee John Sununu, consistent with forecaster ratings of lean or likely Democratic. Sununu leads his primary comfortably but faces a competitive general-election matchup shaped by turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and campaign spending. Traders assign the Republican nominee low implied probability given these structural and polling factors, though the race remains within reach if general-election conditions shift before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$83,051End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The open U.S. Senate seat created by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire drives current trader sentiment, with Democratic nominee Chris Pappas favored in an open-seat contest in a state that has backed Democrats in recent federal elections. Recent August 2026 polling averages show Pappas holding a modest edge over likely Republican nominee John Sununu, consistent with forecaster ratings of lean or likely Democratic. Sununu leads his primary comfortably but faces a competitive general-election matchup shaped by turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and campaign spending. Traders assign the Republican nominee low implied probability given these structural and polling factors, though the race remains within reach if general-election conditions shift before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$83,051End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open U.S. Senate seat created by retiring Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire drives current trader sentiment, with Democratic nominee Chris Pappas favored in an open-seat contest in a state that has backed Democrats in recent federal elections. Recent August 2026 polling averages show Pappas holding a modest edge over likely Republican nominee John Sununu, consistent with forecaster ratings of lean or likely Democratic. Sununu leads his primary comfortably but faces a competitive general-election matchup shaped by turnout patterns, national midterm dynamics, and campaign spending. Traders assign the Republican nominee low implied probability given these structural and polling factors, though the race remains within reach if general-election conditions shift before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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