**Texas’s 21st congressional district remains a strong Republican hold ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** The open seat—vacated after incumbent Chip Roy ran for state attorney general—features Republican nominee Mark Teixeira, a former MLB player who won his primary decisively, against Democrat Kristin Hook, a scientist who captured her party’s nomination. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024. Mid-decade redistricting further strengthened the GOP tilt across Texas maps. Teixeira’s substantial fundraising edge and endorsements have reinforced the positioning, while limited Democratic resources and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-battleground. Trader consensus at 88% Republican reflects these structural and campaign fundamentals, with the November outcome expected to align closely with the district’s established partisan baseline absent major late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-21 House Election Winner
TX-21 House Election Winner
$59,734 Vol.
$59,734 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
12%
$59,734 Vol.
$59,734 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$31,839 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$27,895 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Texas’s 21st congressional district remains a strong Republican hold ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** The open seat—vacated after incumbent Chip Roy ran for state attorney general—features Republican nominee Mark Teixeira, a former MLB player who won his primary decisively, against Democrat Kristin Hook, a scientist who captured her party’s nomination. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024. Mid-decade redistricting further strengthened the GOP tilt across Texas maps. Teixeira’s substantial fundraising edge and endorsements have reinforced the positioning, while limited Democratic resources and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-battleground. Trader consensus at 88% Republican reflects these structural and campaign fundamentals, with the November outcome expected to align closely with the district’s established partisan baseline absent major late shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$59,734End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Texas’s 21st congressional district remains a strong Republican hold ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** The open seat—vacated after incumbent Chip Roy ran for state attorney general—features Republican nominee Mark Teixeira, a former MLB player who won his primary decisively, against Democrat Kristin Hook, a scientist who captured her party’s nomination. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024. Mid-decade redistricting further strengthened the GOP tilt across Texas maps. Teixeira’s substantial fundraising edge and endorsements have reinforced the positioning, while limited Democratic resources and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-battleground. Trader consensus at 88% Republican reflects these structural and campaign fundamentals, with the November outcome expected to align closely with the district’s established partisan baseline absent major late shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$59,734End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Texas’s 21st congressional district remains a strong Republican hold ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election.** The open seat—vacated after incumbent Chip Roy ran for state attorney general—features Republican nominee Mark Teixeira, a former MLB player who won his primary decisively, against Democrat Kristin Hook, a scientist who captured her party’s nomination. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+10 Partisan Voter Index and Donald Trump’s double-digit margin there in 2024. Mid-decade redistricting further strengthened the GOP tilt across Texas maps. Teixeira’s substantial fundraising edge and endorsements have reinforced the positioning, while limited Democratic resources and the absence of competitive polling keep the race non-battleground. Trader consensus at 88% Republican reflects these structural and campaign fundamentals, with the November outcome expected to align closely with the district’s established partisan baseline absent major late shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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