Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a Solid Republican rating from major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in recent presidential voting and the 2024 House result. The open seat, created by retiring incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement, passed to his brother Trever Nehls after a decisive Republican primary win, preserving party continuity in the diverse Houston suburbs spanning Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds without district-specific polling showing meaningful erosion of the Republican edge. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, unusually high suburban turnout among minority voters, or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-22 House Election Winner
TX-22 House Election Winner
$26,487 Vol.
$26,487 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$26,487 Vol.
$26,487 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,898 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,589 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a Solid Republican rating from major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in recent presidential voting and the 2024 House result. The open seat, created by retiring incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement, passed to his brother Trever Nehls after a decisive Republican primary win, preserving party continuity in the diverse Houston suburbs spanning Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds without district-specific polling showing meaningful erosion of the Republican edge. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, unusually high suburban turnout among minority voters, or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$26,487End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a Solid Republican rating from major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in recent presidential voting and the 2024 House result. The open seat, created by retiring incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement, passed to his brother Trever Nehls after a decisive Republican primary win, preserving party continuity in the diverse Houston suburbs spanning Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds without district-specific polling showing meaningful erosion of the Republican edge. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, unusually high suburban turnout among minority voters, or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,487End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 22nd congressional district maintains a Solid Republican rating from major forecasters, with a Partisan Voter Index of R+11, reflecting consistent GOP advantages in recent presidential voting and the 2024 House result. The open seat, created by retiring incumbent Troy Nehls's retirement, passed to his brother Trever Nehls after a decisive Republican primary win, preserving party continuity in the diverse Houston suburbs spanning Fort Bend, Harris, and Brazoria counties. Democratic nominee Marquette Greene-Scott emerged from her primary but faces structural headwinds without district-specific polling showing meaningful erosion of the Republican edge. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Republicans aligns with these fundamentals ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as a national Democratic surge, unusually high suburban turnout among minority voters, or unforeseen candidate issues could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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