**Mitch McConnell’s extended absence from the Senate floor since his June 14, 2026, hospitalization drives the near-certain trader consensus that he will not cast a vote by August 31.** The 84-year-old Kentucky Republican suffered a fall resulting in brief unconsciousness and pneumonia; congressional physicians have repeatedly stated he remains under intensive physical therapy and has not been medically cleared to return to the Capitol, citing ongoing mobility limitations tied to childhood polio. He transitioned to home-based recovery in early August while continuing to engage staff remotely, but he has missed more than 60 recorded votes with no public indication of an imminent floor return. As the session window narrows and McConnell serves out his final term ahead of retirement in January 2027, the probability of an in-person vote before the deadline stays extremely low. A last-minute medical clearance and rapid return to Washington remains the primary, though improbable, development that could alter the outcome.