Recent polling shows the PCQ at 13-16% province-wide support ahead of the October 5 election, with particular strength in the Quebec City region and Chaudière-Appalaches where it often leads or ties at around 30%. Seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada place the party in an 7-15 seat range, reflecting its concentrated regional base but challenges converting votes efficiently elsewhere. Éric Duhaime’s platform emphasizing spending reductions, corporate tax cuts, and family supports has sustained visibility as the campaign launches, yet the multi-party fragmentation and high uncertainty in close ridings keep outcomes variable. Developments in targeted francophone ridings, turnout dynamics, or late shifts among undecided voters could widen or narrow the seat totals from current trader-implied probabilities clustered around the low-to-mid teens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14-16 65%
11-13 26%
<5 26%
17+ 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
26%
5-7
24%
8-10
22%
11-13
28%
14-16
65%
17+
25%
14-16 65%
11-13 26%
<5 26%
17+ 25%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
26%
5-7
$0 Vol.
24%
8-10
$0 Vol.
22%
11-13
$23 Vol.
28%
14-16
$20 Vol.
65%
17+
$23 Vol.
25%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the PCQ at 13-16% province-wide support ahead of the October 5 election, with particular strength in the Quebec City region and Chaudière-Appalaches where it often leads or ties at around 30%. Seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada place the party in an 7-15 seat range, reflecting its concentrated regional base but challenges converting votes efficiently elsewhere. Éric Duhaime’s platform emphasizing spending reductions, corporate tax cuts, and family supports has sustained visibility as the campaign launches, yet the multi-party fragmentation and high uncertainty in close ridings keep outcomes variable. Developments in targeted francophone ridings, turnout dynamics, or late shifts among undecided voters could widen or narrow the seat totals from current trader-implied probabilities clustered around the low-to-mid teens.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$67End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the PCQ at 13-16% province-wide support ahead of the October 5 election, with particular strength in the Quebec City region and Chaudière-Appalaches where it often leads or ties at around 30%. Seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada place the party in an 7-15 seat range, reflecting its concentrated regional base but challenges converting votes efficiently elsewhere. Éric Duhaime’s platform emphasizing spending reductions, corporate tax cuts, and family supports has sustained visibility as the campaign launches, yet the multi-party fragmentation and high uncertainty in close ridings keep outcomes variable. Developments in targeted francophone ridings, turnout dynamics, or late shifts among undecided voters could widen or narrow the seat totals from current trader-implied probabilities clustered around the low-to-mid teens.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$67End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the PCQ at 13-16% province-wide support ahead of the October 5 election, with particular strength in the Quebec City region and Chaudière-Appalaches where it often leads or ties at around 30%. Seat projections from models like Qc125 and 338Canada place the party in an 7-15 seat range, reflecting its concentrated regional base but challenges converting votes efficiently elsewhere. Éric Duhaime’s platform emphasizing spending reductions, corporate tax cuts, and family supports has sustained visibility as the campaign launches, yet the multi-party fragmentation and high uncertainty in close ridings keep outcomes variable. Developments in targeted francophone ridings, turnout dynamics, or late shifts among undecided voters could widen or narrow the seat totals from current trader-implied probabilities clustered around the low-to-mid teens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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