Recent polling averages place the CAQ at roughly 20-23% support ahead of the October 5 election, trailing the Parti Québécois and tied or slightly behind the Liberals, reflecting eight years of incumbency fatigue and a fragmented federalist vote. Seat projections such as 338Canada’s model center around 10 seats with a broad 0-31 range, driven by the party’s weaker performance among francophones outside Montreal and limited appeal in anglophone and allophone ridings. A late-August Léger survey showed the CAQ gaining three points, narrowing the gap somewhat, while high undecided voters and multi-party competition in many ridings introduce volatility. Trader consensus favoring the 15-19 seat band over lower or higher outcomes reflects these polling trends alongside expectations of modest regional vote efficiency for the incumbent party under new leader Christine Fréchette.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
<5 20%
20-24 20%
25-29 18%
10-14 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
15%
5-9
22%
10-14
17%
15-19
43%
20-24
20%
25-29
18%
30+
9%
<5 20%
20-24 20%
25-29 18%
10-14 17%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$120 Vol.
15%
5-9
$144 Vol.
22%
10-14
$63 Vol.
17%
15-19
$61 Vol.
43%
20-24
$21 Vol.
20%
25-29
$21 Vol.
18%
30+
$21 Vol.
9%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the CAQ at roughly 20-23% support ahead of the October 5 election, trailing the Parti Québécois and tied or slightly behind the Liberals, reflecting eight years of incumbency fatigue and a fragmented federalist vote. Seat projections such as 338Canada’s model center around 10 seats with a broad 0-31 range, driven by the party’s weaker performance among francophones outside Montreal and limited appeal in anglophone and allophone ridings. A late-August Léger survey showed the CAQ gaining three points, narrowing the gap somewhat, while high undecided voters and multi-party competition in many ridings introduce volatility. Trader consensus favoring the 15-19 seat band over lower or higher outcomes reflects these polling trends alongside expectations of modest regional vote efficiency for the incumbent party under new leader Christine Fréchette.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$449End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the CAQ at roughly 20-23% support ahead of the October 5 election, trailing the Parti Québécois and tied or slightly behind the Liberals, reflecting eight years of incumbency fatigue and a fragmented federalist vote. Seat projections such as 338Canada’s model center around 10 seats with a broad 0-31 range, driven by the party’s weaker performance among francophones outside Montreal and limited appeal in anglophone and allophone ridings. A late-August Léger survey showed the CAQ gaining three points, narrowing the gap somewhat, while high undecided voters and multi-party competition in many ridings introduce volatility. Trader consensus favoring the 15-19 seat band over lower or higher outcomes reflects these polling trends alongside expectations of modest regional vote efficiency for the incumbent party under new leader Christine Fréchette.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$449End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the CAQ at roughly 20-23% support ahead of the October 5 election, trailing the Parti Québécois and tied or slightly behind the Liberals, reflecting eight years of incumbency fatigue and a fragmented federalist vote. Seat projections such as 338Canada’s model center around 10 seats with a broad 0-31 range, driven by the party’s weaker performance among francophones outside Montreal and limited appeal in anglophone and allophone ridings. A late-August Léger survey showed the CAQ gaining three points, narrowing the gap somewhat, while high undecided voters and multi-party competition in many ridings introduce volatility. Trader consensus favoring the 15-19 seat band over lower or higher outcomes reflects these polling trends alongside expectations of modest regional vote efficiency for the incumbent party under new leader Christine Fréchette.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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