**Québec Solidaire maintains multiple strongholds on the Island of Montreal and holds several incumbents contesting the October 5, 2026 general election.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place the party at roughly 5 seats (range 2–10), driven by safe or likely wins in ridings including Gouin and Mercier, with additional competitive or toss-up opportunities in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage. Current polling shows QS support concentrated at 7–13% in Montreal versus lower levels elsewhere, consistent with its urban voter base. The party launched its campaign on August 27 with platform announcements on taxation, cost-of-living measures, and public services, while its co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal seeks re-election in Mercier. These factors—incumbency advantages, geographic concentration, and an absence of developments indicating a complete collapse of support—underpin the elevated trader consensus reflected in the current odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated93% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
93% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains multiple strongholds on the Island of Montreal and holds several incumbents contesting the October 5, 2026 general election.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place the party at roughly 5 seats (range 2–10), driven by safe or likely wins in ridings including Gouin and Mercier, with additional competitive or toss-up opportunities in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage.
Current polling shows QS support concentrated at 7–13% in Montreal versus lower levels elsewhere, consistent with its urban voter base. The party launched its campaign on August 27 with platform announcements on taxation, cost-of-living measures, and public services, while its co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal seeks re-election in Mercier. These factors—incumbency advantages, geographic concentration, and an absence of developments indicating a complete collapse of support—underpin the elevated trader consensus reflected in the current odds.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$238End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Québec Solidaire maintains multiple strongholds on the Island of Montreal and holds several incumbents contesting the October 5, 2026 general election.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place the party at roughly 5 seats (range 2–10), driven by safe or likely wins in ridings including Gouin and Mercier, with additional competitive or toss-up opportunities in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage.
Current polling shows QS support concentrated at 7–13% in Montreal versus lower levels elsewhere, consistent with its urban voter base. The party launched its campaign on August 27 with platform announcements on taxation, cost-of-living measures, and public services, while its co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal seeks re-election in Mercier. These factors—incumbency advantages, geographic concentration, and an absence of developments indicating a complete collapse of support—underpin the elevated trader consensus reflected in the current odds.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$238End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...**Québec Solidaire maintains multiple strongholds on the Island of Montreal and holds several incumbents contesting the October 5, 2026 general election.** Recent seat projections from aggregators such as 338Canada place the party at roughly 5 seats (range 2–10), driven by safe or likely wins in ridings including Gouin and Mercier, with additional competitive or toss-up opportunities in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Taschereau, and Jean-Lesage. Current polling shows QS support concentrated at 7–13% in Montreal versus lower levels elsewhere, consistent with its urban voter base. The party launched its campaign on August 27 with platform announcements on taxation, cost-of-living measures, and public services, while its co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal seeks re-election in Mercier. These factors—incumbency advantages, geographic concentration, and an absence of developments indicating a complete collapse of support—underpin the elevated trader consensus reflected in the current odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions