Recent polling showing the CAQ closing to a statistical tie with the Parti Québécois in popular support has tightened projections for PQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. Aggregators place the PQ median near 45-48 seats with wide confidence intervals reflecting volatility in francophone ridings and three-way contests in regions like Quebec City. The CAQ’s late gains, concentrated among certain demographics, combined with high undecided rates near 50 percent and federalist vote fragmentation, sustain uncertainty around whether the PQ reaches or exceeds 50 seats. Trade tensions with the United States and the PQ’s adjusted referendum timeline add further variables that could shift riding-level outcomes in the final campaign weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50-54 27%
<50 23%
55-59 13%
70-74 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
23%
50-54
27%
55-59
13%
60-64
9%
65-69
11%
70-74
11%
75-79
3%
80+
4%
50-54 27%
<50 23%
55-59 13%
70-74 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$873 Vol.
23%
50-54
$900 Vol.
27%
55-59
$423 Vol.
13%
60-64
$775 Vol.
9%
65-69
$2,484 Vol.
11%
70-74
$1,706 Vol.
11%
75-79
$953 Vol.
3%
80+
$839 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling showing the CAQ closing to a statistical tie with the Parti Québécois in popular support has tightened projections for PQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. Aggregators place the PQ median near 45-48 seats with wide confidence intervals reflecting volatility in francophone ridings and three-way contests in regions like Quebec City. The CAQ’s late gains, concentrated among certain demographics, combined with high undecided rates near 50 percent and federalist vote fragmentation, sustain uncertainty around whether the PQ reaches or exceeds 50 seats. Trade tensions with the United States and the PQ’s adjusted referendum timeline add further variables that could shift riding-level outcomes in the final campaign weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$8,953End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling showing the CAQ closing to a statistical tie with the Parti Québécois in popular support has tightened projections for PQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. Aggregators place the PQ median near 45-48 seats with wide confidence intervals reflecting volatility in francophone ridings and three-way contests in regions like Quebec City. The CAQ’s late gains, concentrated among certain demographics, combined with high undecided rates near 50 percent and federalist vote fragmentation, sustain uncertainty around whether the PQ reaches or exceeds 50 seats. Trade tensions with the United States and the PQ’s adjusted referendum timeline add further variables that could shift riding-level outcomes in the final campaign weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$8,953End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling showing the CAQ closing to a statistical tie with the Parti Québécois in popular support has tightened projections for PQ seat totals ahead of the October 5 election. Aggregators place the PQ median near 45-48 seats with wide confidence intervals reflecting volatility in francophone ridings and three-way contests in regions like Quebec City. The CAQ’s late gains, concentrated among certain demographics, combined with high undecided rates near 50 percent and federalist vote fragmentation, sustain uncertainty around whether the PQ reaches or exceeds 50 seats. Trade tensions with the United States and the PQ’s adjusted referendum timeline add further variables that could shift riding-level outcomes in the final campaign weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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