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Elections·Primaries

NH-01 Republican Primary Winner

icon for NH-01 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Primaries

NH-01 Republican Primary Winner

Anthony DiLorenzo 73%

Hollie Noveletsky 28%

Melissa Bailey <1%

Brian Cole <1%

Polymarket

$62,326 Vol.

Anthony DiLorenzo 73%

Hollie Noveletsky 28%

Melissa Bailey <1%

Brian Cole <1%

Polymarket

$62,326 Vol.

icon for Anthony DiLorenzo

Anthony DiLorenzo

$7,832 Vol.

73%

icon for Hollie Noveletsky

Hollie Noveletsky

$35,112 Vol.

28%

icon for Melissa Bailey

Melissa Bailey

$2,170 Vol.

1%

icon for Brian Cole

Brian Cole

$2,539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Elizabeth Girard

Elizabeth Girard

$14,673 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Anthony DiLorenzo holds a commanding lead in the NH-01 Republican primary market at 72.5%, driven primarily by high-profile endorsements and a decisive fundraising edge ahead of the September 8 primary.** President Trump and House GOP leadership endorsed him in mid-July, followed by his inclusion in the NRCC’s MAGA Majority program, moves that consolidated establishment and Trump-aligned support. Melissa Bailey’s July withdrawal and endorsement of DiLorenzo further narrowed the field. DiLorenzo, a self-funded Portsmouth businessman, reported over $1.1 million in cash on hand by late June, the vast majority from personal contributions, giving him substantial resources for the closing weeks. Hollie Noveletsky, the leading remaining challenger at 26.5%, emphasizes manufacturing, trade, and conservative priorities as a repeat candidate from 2024 but trails significantly in cash and institutional backing. Brian Cole, Melissa Bailey (post-withdrawal), and Elizabeth Girard register negligible shares consistent with limited visibility and resources. Recent August polling shows a tighter race with many undecided voters, yet trader pricing reflects the structural advantages of endorsements, money, and field consolidation favoring DiLorenzo in the short window to primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$62,326
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 11:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Anthony DiLorenzo holds a commanding lead in the NH-01 Republican primary market at 72.5%, driven primarily by high-profile endorsements and a decisive fundraising edge ahead of the September 8 primary.** President Trump and House GOP leadership endorsed him in mid-July, followed by his inclusion in the NRCC’s MAGA Majority program, moves that consolidated establishment and Trump-aligned support. Melissa Bailey’s July withdrawal and endorsement of DiLorenzo further narrowed the field. DiLorenzo, a self-funded Portsmouth businessman, reported over $1.1 million in cash on hand by late June, the vast majority from personal contributions, giving him substantial resources for the closing weeks. Hollie Noveletsky, the leading remaining challenger at 26.5%, emphasizes manufacturing, trade, and conservative priorities as a repeat candidate from 2024 but trails significantly in cash and institutional backing. Brian Cole, Melissa Bailey (post-withdrawal), and Elizabeth Girard register negligible shares consistent with limited visibility and resources. Recent August polling shows a tighter race with many undecided voters, yet trader pricing reflects the structural advantages of endorsements, money, and field consolidation favoring DiLorenzo in the short window to primary day.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$62,326
End Date
Sep 8, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 11:53 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthony DiLorenzo" at 73%, followed by "Hollie Noveletsky" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NH-01 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $62.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NH-01 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NH-01 Republican Primary Winner" is "Anthony DiLorenzo" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Hollie Noveletsky" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NH-01 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.