**Recent U.S. retail egg prices have stabilized near the July 2026 BLS average of $2.19 per dozen amid sharply lower wholesale benchmarks around 40 cents per dozen in late August, reflecting expanded supply from flock rebuilding after earlier HPAI outbreaks.** This environment has concentrated trader-implied odds in the $2.10–$2.40 range (roughly 78% combined probability across the three leading brackets), with the top two bins ($2.30–$2.40 at 30.5% and $2.20–$2.30 at 28.1%) remaining closely contested. Key drivers include reduced avian influenza pressure enabling higher laying rates and larger flocks, which have outpaced demand and compressed margins at the farm and wholesale levels. Retail prices incorporate a lag relative to wholesale declines while also reflecting mixed conventional, cage-free, and organic baskets. The narrow spread among leading outcomes highlights uncertainty around the precise August BLS reading—driven by potential minor seasonal demand shifts, regional pricing differences, and the exact timing of supply adjustments—rather than any expectation of a major reversal. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as aggregated trader consensus backed by capital at risk, with resolution tied to the St. Louis Fed’s publication of the BLS series expected in mid-September. No major new supply shocks or input-cost spikes (such as sharp feed-grain moves) have emerged to alter this low-price baseline in recent weeks.