Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation market shows the widest probability mass (33.2%) clustered in the 2.5–2.9% range, consistent with the Bank of Canada's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection of easing toward 2.5% in the second half of the year after a 3.0% July print. Headline inflation has been lifted by gasoline prices, which rose 25.7% year-over-year amid Middle East supply disruptions and elevated refinery margins, while core measures (excluding gasoline) held near 2.0–2.2% and the policy rate remained at 2.25%. Trader dispersion across bins reflects uncertainty over whether oil prices will follow futures curves downward, the extent of any pass-through to goods and food, lingering U.S. tariff effects, and the degree of economic slack that continues to restrain services and shelter inflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 33.4%
3.0-3.4% 18.1%
3.5-3.9% 13.1%
2.0–2.4% 13.0%
$38,950 Vol.
$38,950 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
8%
2.0–2.4%
13%
2.5–2.9%
33%
3.0-3.4%
18%
3.5-3.9%
13%
4.0%+
5%
2.5–2.9% 33.4%
3.0-3.4% 18.1%
3.5-3.9% 13.1%
2.0–2.4% 13.0%
$38,950 Vol.
$38,950 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
$1,162 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$5,293 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$3,434 Vol.
8%
2.0–2.4%
$1,231 Vol.
13%
2.5–2.9%
$9,823 Vol.
33%
3.0-3.4%
$13,961 Vol.
18%
3.5-3.9%
$3,536 Vol.
13%
4.0%+
$509 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation market shows the widest probability mass (33.2%) clustered in the 2.5–2.9% range, consistent with the Bank of Canada's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection of easing toward 2.5% in the second half of the year after a 3.0% July print. Headline inflation has been lifted by gasoline prices, which rose 25.7% year-over-year amid Middle East supply disruptions and elevated refinery margins, while core measures (excluding gasoline) held near 2.0–2.2% and the policy rate remained at 2.25%. Trader dispersion across bins reflects uncertainty over whether oil prices will follow futures curves downward, the extent of any pass-through to goods and food, lingering U.S. tariff effects, and the degree of economic slack that continues to restrain services and shelter inflation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$38,950End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation market shows the widest probability mass (33.2%) clustered in the 2.5–2.9% range, consistent with the Bank of Canada's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection of easing toward 2.5% in the second half of the year after a 3.0% July print. Headline inflation has been lifted by gasoline prices, which rose 25.7% year-over-year amid Middle East supply disruptions and elevated refinery margins, while core measures (excluding gasoline) held near 2.0–2.2% and the policy rate remained at 2.25%. Trader dispersion across bins reflects uncertainty over whether oil prices will follow futures curves downward, the extent of any pass-through to goods and food, lingering U.S. tariff effects, and the degree of economic slack that continues to restrain services and shelter inflation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$38,950End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Canada's 2026 annual CPI inflation market shows the widest probability mass (33.2%) clustered in the 2.5–2.9% range, consistent with the Bank of Canada's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projection of easing toward 2.5% in the second half of the year after a 3.0% July print. Headline inflation has been lifted by gasoline prices, which rose 25.7% year-over-year amid Middle East supply disruptions and elevated refinery margins, while core measures (excluding gasoline) held near 2.0–2.2% and the policy rate remained at 2.25%. Trader dispersion across bins reflects uncertainty over whether oil prices will follow futures curves downward, the extent of any pass-through to goods and food, lingering U.S. tariff effects, and the degree of economic slack that continues to restrain services and shelter inflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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