Trader sentiment for the August 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI centers on a narrow 54.0–55.9 range, where combined probabilities exceed 45 percent, reflecting balanced but fragile expansion signals from recent industrial output and new orders data. Elevated Treasury yields and the current Fed funds rate path have weighed on capital spending, while labor market cooling and inventory adjustments create downside risks that keep lower bands competitive. Recent regional Fed surveys and supply chain metrics show modest improvement yet remain sensitive to any inflation reacceleration in the latest CPI release. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any shifts in global trade volumes that could tip the index above or below the 55 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated54.0–54.9 31%
55.0–55.9 26%
53.0–53.9 14%
52.0–52.9 10%
$30,026 Vol.
$30,026 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
2%
51.0–51.9
4%
52.0–52.9
10%
53.0–53.9
14%
54.0–54.9
20%
55.0–55.9
26%
56.0–56.9
7%
57.0–57.9
2%
58.0–58.9
4%
59.0+
<1%
54.0–54.9 31%
55.0–55.9 26%
53.0–53.9 14%
52.0–52.9 10%
$30,026 Vol.
$30,026 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<51.0
$992 Vol.
2%
51.0–51.9
$1,000 Vol.
4%
52.0–52.9
$1,124 Vol.
10%
53.0–53.9
$1,158 Vol.
14%
54.0–54.9
$4,206 Vol.
20%
55.0–55.9
$17,293 Vol.
26%
56.0–56.9
$1,451 Vol.
7%
57.0–57.9
$1,053 Vol.
2%
58.0–58.9
$1,013 Vol.
4%
59.0+
$735 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader sentiment for the August 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI centers on a narrow 54.0–55.9 range, where combined probabilities exceed 45 percent, reflecting balanced but fragile expansion signals from recent industrial output and new orders data. Elevated Treasury yields and the current Fed funds rate path have weighed on capital spending, while labor market cooling and inventory adjustments create downside risks that keep lower bands competitive. Recent regional Fed surveys and supply chain metrics show modest improvement yet remain sensitive to any inflation reacceleration in the latest CPI release. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any shifts in global trade volumes that could tip the index above or below the 55 threshold.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$30,026End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader sentiment for the August 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI centers on a narrow 54.0–55.9 range, where combined probabilities exceed 45 percent, reflecting balanced but fragile expansion signals from recent industrial output and new orders data. Elevated Treasury yields and the current Fed funds rate path have weighed on capital spending, while labor market cooling and inventory adjustments create downside risks that keep lower bands competitive. Recent regional Fed surveys and supply chain metrics show modest improvement yet remain sensitive to any inflation reacceleration in the latest CPI release. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any shifts in global trade volumes that could tip the index above or below the 55 threshold.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$30,026End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for the August 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI centers on a narrow 54.0–55.9 range, where combined probabilities exceed 45 percent, reflecting balanced but fragile expansion signals from recent industrial output and new orders data. Elevated Treasury yields and the current Fed funds rate path have weighed on capital spending, while labor market cooling and inventory adjustments create downside risks that keep lower bands competitive. Recent regional Fed surveys and supply chain metrics show modest improvement yet remain sensitive to any inflation reacceleration in the latest CPI release. Key upcoming catalysts include the next employment report and any shifts in global trade volumes that could tip the index above or below the 55 threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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